JB33 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rth Ragnarok said: Top Paydates 5-Nov All Thor 1-AMC Burbank 2-AMC Empire 25, New York City (Combined with Regal E-walk be #1..just) 3-AMC Metreon , San Francisco 4-AMC Lincoln Square, New York City 5-AMC Tysons Corner, Mclean VA 6-Regal Union Square , New York City 7-AMC Disney Springs, Orlando FL 8-Regal Irvine Spectrum 9-AMC Orange 30 10-AMC Century City 11-AMC Boston Commons 12-CM Mountain View CA 13-Regal New Roc City, New Rochelle NY 14-Regaul Kaufman Astoria, Astoria NY 15-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto ON 16-Regal LA Live 17-Pac Arclight Hollywood 18-Regal Houston Marq 19-AMC Garden State , Paramus NJ 20-AMC 34st, NEw York City Combined Regal Ontario Palace & AMC Ontario Mills be #2 Top Canada 1-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto ON; 2-CPLX Cinema Banque, Montreal, 3-CPLX Queensway,Etobicoke ON;4-CPLX Scotiabank Vancouver;5-CPLX Scotiabank Edmonton Thanks, as always, for this RTH. Very interesting. Odd, usually CPLX Scotiabank Calgary (Chinook Centre) is up there in the top 5. Then again, it wasn't as busy as I thought it would be on Friday when I saw Thor there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, AndyK said: If seems to me that if Sunday had dropped by a normal amount, the monday drop would have been less. Makes sense. I always forget that. With box office it seems like the golden rule that everything evens out somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Chances are I'm going to miss some movies, but since 2008, here are all the sequels released in November (excluding animation) and their multipliers: 2008: Quantum of Solace: 2.5 Transporter 3: 2.58 2009: Twilight New Moon: 2.08 2010: Deathly Hallows 1: 2.37 2011: Breaking Dawn 1: 2.03 Harold and Kumar 3: 2.69 2012: BD2: 2.07 2013: Hunger Games CF: 2.68 Thor 2: 2.42 Best Man Holiday: 2.33 2014: Mockingjay 1: 2.76 Dumb and Dumber To: 2.38 2015: Mockingjay 2: 2.75 Spectre: 2.85 2016: None So with the exception of the Hunger Games films, and one Bond film, not a lot of sequels have hit 2.6X. Again, not saying it can't but releasing a sequel in November means statistically speaking, it's harder to hit a 2.6X, unless you are Katniss. 5 out of the 14 films exceeded 2.6 and three of those were Katniss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, The Last baumer said: Chances are I'm going to miss some movies, but since 2008, here are all the sequels released in November (excluding animation) and their multipliers: 2008: Quantum of Solace: 2.5 Transporter 3: 2.58 2009: Twilight New Moon: 2.08 2010: Deathly Hallows 1: 2.37 2011: Breaking Dawn 1: 2.03 Harold and Kumar 3: 2.69 2012: BD2: 2.07 2013: Hunger Games CF: 2.68 Thor 2: 2.42 Best Man Holiday: 2.33 2014: Mockingjay 1: 2.76 Dumb and Dumber To: 2.38 2015: Mockingjay 2: 2.75 Spectre: 2.85 2016: None So with the exception of the Hunger Games films, and one Bond film, not a lot of sequels have hit 2.6X. Again, not saying it can't but releasing a sequel in November means statistically speaking, it's harder to hit a 2.6X, unless you are Katniss. 5 out of the 14 films exceeded 2.6 and three of those were Katniss. But you're ignoring how much critical/user reception aligns with those multis. DH1 is really the only case there where it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: But you're ignoring how much critical/user reception aligns with those multis. DH1 is really the only case there where it doesn't. Critical reception for a Marvel sequel is going to matter? I don't think it will really. And I'm not ignoring anything. I'm giving you raw numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, The Last baumer said: Critical reception for a Marvel sequel is going to matter? I don't think it will really. And I'm not ignoring anything. I'm giving you raw numbers. Based on every MCU sequel not named Civil War, it absolutely matters in terms of the multi... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: Based on every MCU sequel not named Civil War, it absolutely matters in terms of the multi... So why are we ignoring CW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 One thing about Civil War too is that the plot was confusing without having seen like 3-4 of the prior MCU films. Whereas most of what someone is losing in Ragnarok by not having seen certain other MCU films is some of the humor. The plot can be followed pretty easily regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, The Last baumer said: So why are we ignoring CW? Because it is an outlier in the franchise, as I've illustrated extensively. Why base the odds around an outlier? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 Man, when Civil War was released, wasn't everyone on about how it was the best Marvel movie ever and it would have crazy good wom? I think we should wait and see before declaring things one way or the other for Ragnarok 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, RagnaRoc said: Man, when Civil War was released, wasn't everyone on about how it was the best Marvel movie ever and it would have crazy good wom? I think we should wait and see before declaring things one way or the other for Ragnarok That's what I've been saying all along. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, The Last baumer said: That's what I've been saying all along. And yet you have been making a pretty clear declaration in this thread that TR is very frontloaded based on its "shit" Monday hold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deja23 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: One thing about Civil War too is that the plot was confusing without having seen like 3-4 of the prior MCU films. Whereas most of what someone is losing in Ragnarok by not having seen certain other MCU films is some of the humor. The plot can be followed pretty easily regardless. Even as someone who’s seen most of the other MCU movies, Civil War was kinda tedious to get through and I was never interested in rewatching the whole movie. I’m not surprised it had a poor multiplier and it’d be near the bottom of my list if I didn’t think it was a well made movie. I don’t know what Thor’s multiplier will be, though I hope it gets it over $300m, but how it drops this weekend and against JL will be more telling than its first Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rumpot Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 What are the highest November weekday numbers that we've seen? Perhaps there is just a relative cap on how high they can really go when kids and adults aren't off work/school. Even 7pm previews+6pm fan event tickets only got Thor to 14.5M so 8.25M seems fine here. I guess I'm just suggesting some resistance past a certain number on a non-Holiday Monday for a movie like this (non-horror, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Rumpot said: What are the highest November weekday numbers that we've seen? Perhaps there is just a relative cap on how high they can really go when kids and adults aren't off work/school. Even 7pm previews+6pm fan event tickets only got Thor to 14.5M so 8.25M seems fine here. I guess I'm just suggesting some resistance past a certain number on a non-Holiday Monday for a movie like this (non-horror, etc) As far as the first half of November, I'm guessing the highest weekday # would be Skyfall's first Monday (11m). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: And yet you have been making a pretty clear declaration in this thread that TR is very frontloaded based on its "shit" Monday hold. If that makes you feel better, then you can believe that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephemeris Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Are people forgetting that multipliers depend on so much more than WOM? Seems weird to claim a movie doesn't have good WOM based on the multiplier alone, when every other reliable metric indicates good WOM. Movies can have good WOM/reviews and still be frontloaded you know... Acting like it didn't matter for Civil War doesn't make sense. If Civil War had terrible WOM it would have joined BvS in the <2 multipliers club. Looks like not having terrible WOM/reviews still added $50-100M to its domestic total. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said: As far as the first half of November, I'm guessing the highest weekday # would be Skyfall's first Monday (11m). Pretty sure that was a Veteran's Day holiday, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, Ephemeris said: Movies can have good WOM/reviews and still be frontloaded you know... Exactly. Particularly a Marvel sequel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 4 hours ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said: Honestly it’s hard to compare anything to early May when colleges are out. Weren’t we all jaw dropping at a 27% drop on Sunday? That’s nearly unprecedented for a film of this size during early November. Let’s see weekend 2 before leaning one way or the other We might even have to wait until the third weekend to determine what kind of legs it might have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
