aabattery Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 We might even have to wait till the run is complete to determine what kind of legs it had. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 But who's saying it won't be frontloaded though? Would a 2.6x multi still not be frontloaded for a film with glowing critical and early audience score reception? If it didn't have typical MCU sequel frontloading, I'd be discussing higher than 2.7x, that's for sure. Also OW size definitely plays a factor in frontloading. Hard to compare a 122m OW with a 179m one. Who's to say CW wouldn't have hit 2.5x+ with TR's OW? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, MovieMan89 said: But who's saying it won't be frontloaded though? Would a 2.6x multi still not be frontloaded for a film with glowing critical and early audience score reception? If it didn't have typical MCU sequel frontloading, I'd be discussing higher than 2.7x, that's for sure. Also OW size definitely plays a factor in frontloading. Hard to compare a 122m OW with a 179m one. Who's to say CW wouldn't have hit 2.5x+ with TR's OW? Me. CW with the OW no matter how good was basically an Avengers movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, YourMother said: Me. CW with the OW no matter how good was basically an Avengers movie. Then why do the vast majority of OWs over 140m+ have such poor or mediocre multis? Get down to the 135m mark or so and multis start looking much healthier on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 (edited) 40 minutes ago, The Last baumer said: Chances are I'm going to miss some movies, but since 2008, here are all the sequels released in November (excluding animation) and their multipliers: 2008: Quantum of Solace: 2.5 Transporter 3: 2.58 2009: Twilight New Moon: 2.08 2010: Deathly Hallows 1: 2.37 2011: Breaking Dawn 1: 2.03 Harold and Kumar 3: 2.69 2012: BD2: 2.07 2013: Hunger Games CF: 2.68 Thor 2: 2.42 Best Man Holiday: 2.33 2014: Mockingjay 1: 2.76 Dumb and Dumber To: 2.38 2015: Mockingjay 2: 2.75 Spectre: 2.85 2016: None So with the exception of the Hunger Games films, and one Bond film, not a lot of sequels have hit 2.6X. Again, not saying it can't but releasing a sequel in November means statistically speaking, it's harder to hit a 2.6X, unless you are Katniss. 5 out of the 14 films exceeded 2.6 and three of those were Katniss. Most of those were either critical duds or young adult. Twilight, for example, is typically way more frontloaded than MCU, even the MCU sequels. Edited November 7, 2017 by grey ghost 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Then why do the vast majority of OWs over 140m+ have such poor or mediocre multis? Get down to the 135m mark or so and multis start looking much healthier on average. Smaller fanbase and more accessible to the GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, YourMother said: Smaller fanbase and more accessible to the GA. So then you're telling me the smaller fanbase and therefore opening of a Thor film vs that of an Iron Man/Captain America team up film shouldn't be expected to make a difference in frontloading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: But who's saying it won't be frontloaded though? Would a 2.6x multi still not be frontloaded for a film with glowing critical and early audience score reception? If it didn't have typical MCU sequel frontloading, I'd be discussing higher than 2.7x, that's for sure. Also OW size definitely plays a factor in frontloading. Hard to compare a 122m OW with a 179m one. Who's to say CW wouldn't have hit 2.5x+ with TR's OW? 2.6x seems about average for any sort of major tentpole these days (putting aside holiday runs). Legs are just shorter in general. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, grey ghost said: Most of those were either critical duds or young adult. Twilight, for example, is typically way more frontloaded than MCU, even the MCU sequels. There's no passion or prejudice in my research. It's hard numbers. You can't dispute the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Squadron Leader Tele said: 2.6x seems about average for any sort of major tentpole these days (putting aside holiday runs). Legs are just shorter in general. Yet Civil War and Logan are the only two big budget movies from the last few years I can think of with great critical acclaim and sub 2.6x multis (and Logan just barely). Which are both CBM's, so I'm not saying it's impossible TR goes below that mark in spite of the critical reception. I just don't think it's inaccurate at all to say the odds are against it. Edited November 7, 2017 by MovieMan89 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: Yet Civil War and Logan are the only two big budget movies from the last few years I can think of with great critical acclaim and sub 2.6x multis. Which are both CBM's, so I'm not saying it's impossible TR goes below that mark in spite of the critical reception. I just don't think it's inaccurate at all to say the odds are against it. May the odds ever be in your favour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephemeris Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, The Last baumer said: There's no passion or prejudice in my research. It's hard numbers. You can't dispute the numbers. You can't dispute them, but you can put them into context. And context matters. A lot. Numbers can be quite meaningless without it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 Whatever Ragnarok is at on about Wednesday or Thursday is probably going to be half its DOM gross. Most MCU films hit the halfway mark between days 5 and 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, The Last baumer said: There's no passion or prejudice in my research. It's hard numbers. You can't dispute the numbers. Speaking of numbers: Civil War is the only MCU movie with an RT score above 80% to have legs shorter than 2.6. That's what you call an anomaly, my friend. And not one laugh out loud MCU film has had legs under 2.6. You're lucky I'm outta points in the casino or I'd clean house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 (edited) Because I have nothing better to do today: List of all Friday opening big budget movie multis that got RT scores over 80% from 2015-present 2015: The Revenant - 4.57x The Martian - 4.22x Inside Out - 3.95x The Force Awakens - 3.78x Mission Impossible Rogue Nation - 3.55x Max Max: Fury Road - 3.4x Ant-Man - 3.15x Cinderella - 3x 2016: Zootopia - 4.55x Finding Dory - 3.6x Jungle Book - 3.54x Kung Fu Panda 3 - 3.49x Rogue One - 3.43x Deadpool - 2.75x Doctor Strange - 2.72x Star Trek Beyond - 2.68x Civil War - 2.28x 2017: Wonder Woman - 4x Dunkirk - 3.76x Spiderman Homecoming - 2.85x Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 2.66x War for the Planet of the Apes - 2.63x Logan - 2.58x Thor: Ragnarok: ??? Once again, CW remains the major outlier in these stats. Edited November 8, 2017 by MovieMan89 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Just now, MovieMan89 said: Because I have nothing better to do today: List of all Friday opening big budget movie multis that got RT scores over 80% from 2015-present 2015: The Revenant - 4.57x Inside Out - 3.95x The Force Awakens - 3.78x Mission Impossible Rogue Nation - 3.55x Max Max: Fury Road - 3.4x Ant-Man - 3.15x Cinderella - 3x 2016: Zootopia - 4.55x Finding Dory - 3.6x Jungle Book - 3.54x Kung Fu Panda 3 - 3.49x Rogue One - 3.43x Deadpool - 2.75x Doctor Strange - 2.72x Star Trek Beyond - 2.68x Civil War - 2.28x 2017: Wonder Woman - 4x Dunkirk - 3.76x Spiderman Homecoming - 2.85x Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 2.66x War for the Planet of the Apes - 2.63xLogan - 2.58x Thor: Ragnarok: ??? Once again, CW remains the major outlier in these stats. You forgot The Martian in 2015. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: You forgot The Martian in 2015. Thanks, added it. 2015 had some absolutely killer multis for critically acclaimed blockbusters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 11 hours ago, RagnaRoc said: Whatever Ragnarok is at on about Wednesday or Thursday is probably going to be half its DOM gross. Most MCU films hit the halfway mark between days 5 and 8. Uh...That's factually not true. For example, Homecoming was at $163m on its first Thursday, and Vol. 2 was at $183m on its first Thursday. Both went past the double of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 3 hours ago, ZattMurdock said: Uh...That's factually not true. For example, Homecoming was at $163m on its first Thursday, and Vol. 2 was at $183m on its first Thursday. Both went past the double of that. I think that's why he said MOST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 No Rth puzzle for yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
