AJ2k Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, The Last baumer said: How long have you been at the forums? Do I really need to explain to you what I mean by saying "loonie"? The odds were also in the favour of Civil War of clearing 2.6 as well. Haven't heard the term "loonie" since the trolling Maverick/BKB days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: The only thing I can see realistically hurting TR's multi besides JL is somewhat of a need to have seen the first two films, both of which are some of the lesser successful MCU films. But even then, the majority of the humor and plot would still work if you haven't seen the prior two. The only thing I can see hurting Thor is that it's Thor and a lot of people thought it was kind of shit. But I will no longer rain on your parade. You guys that love it, I'm glad you have a film that you enjoy so much. Not my cup of tea (or giant glass of beer), but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyChrono Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: I'm currently predicting a multi between 2.65-2.7x, i.e. below the MCU average, and that's getting "loonie?" Brad over at BOM seems to be thinking it will hit 2.8x or so in his weekend write up. Better throw him in the asylum! The fact is, that CW is the one and only outlier in terms of critically acclaimed MCU films that missed that 2.65x mark. Again, the odds are far more in favor for Thor clearing 2.6x with ease than going lower than that. The average MCU multiplier you cite is mostly buoyed by non-sequels like GotG1, Avengers, Ant-Man, and Iron Man which had multipliers over 3x and some that got close like Dr Strange, Cap1, and Thor 1. Furthermore, some of those released in summer where they had stronger weekdays to leverage for better legs. The average multiplier for a MCU sequel film opening outside of summer is 2.477. This ranges from the highest one of 2.735 for Winter Soldier, to the woeful 2.279 of Civil War. Thus, a more reasonable prediction is something in the 2.5x range for Ragnarok, and if you wanted to go "below MCU average" with predictions it would be like a 2.45. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, AJ2k said: Haven't heard the term "loonie" since the trolling Maverick/BKB days. Really? It's uttered here often. It's not a trolling term, it's more of a term of endearment now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 hours ago, AndyChrono said: The average MCU multiplier you cite is mostly buoyed by non-sequels like GotG1, Avengers, Ant-Man, and Iron Man which had multipliers over 3x and some that got close like Dr Strange, Cap1, and Thor 1. Furthermore, some of those released in summer where they had stronger weekdays to leverage for better legs. The average multiplier for a MCU sequel film opening outside of summer is 2.477. This ranges from the highest one of 2.735 for Winter Soldier, to the woeful 2.279 of Civil War. Thus, a more reasonable prediction is something in the 2.5x range for Ragnarok, and if you wanted to go "below MCU average" with predictions it would be like a 2.45. Thank you. I was in the middle of typing out something similar. You saved me a bunch of research. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 One thing you look at for legs is what's around that will steal your possible tickets... For Thor, it's not just gonna be JL. That's the HUGE one...BUT... If you are looking for supers, JL is coming - that's an enormous hit... If you are looking for comedy, you have Bad Moms Xmas and Daddy's Home 2...here, I don't think a lot of fans will be lost, although I think women will be stolen more than men b/c Bad Moms seems like the type of movie groups of college women and older will decide to spring for vs Thor... If you are looking for family, here's where it gets bad...1st, you have JL...then you have the original animateds Coco and The Star...and then you have the premier live action family movie Wonder (based on a best-selling book), which is already preselling well...they all hit at Thor's 3rd week (since Coco opens on the Tuesday of that week)...when the theaters and screens normally start to get taken away...these are PREMIER material (vs the sequel of Thor)...those are always bigger threats b/c if they are good, they gain steam and take away your movie's thunder and fans...everyone talks about "new" stuff... Spidey had amazing legs b/c family movies were not existent in a family time - summer. When DM3 and Emoji get as high as they did, it's obvious how the summer went for families...Family movies will be in abundance in 2 weeks (I don't count DH2 b/c that movie screams Nut Job Never Again to me...and it's another "why did you make a sequel for a movie folks already didn't like, even if it did make lots of money - don't you just accept that great escape and count those bills?:)" But you get the idea...comparing Thor and Spidey may not be the best plan b/c of the environment both released in...even if they are both funny... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, The Last baumer said: Any reason? Sure. It's Thor and it's not a great film. Again, you guys can like it, that's fine, but it's agreed across the board that this isn't going to play any different than a typical fan rush of a movie that not many other people really care about. So basically no reason whatsoever for it fall more than SMH/WW, got it. And given its ratings and holds in OS market and its internal OW multiplier you could not be more wrong. And I have not seen the movie yet. I am simply going by the numbers and data available. And agreed by whom? people on this board? I am confused, one moment you say its stupid and early to say it will get great legs and then go and say that it will have short legs. Again I agree its too early to say it will have good legs, but in the same vein its too early to say it will have bad legs. You can't have it both ways mate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rthmessiah Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Canada We 1-TR, 2-BMC, 3-Jig,4-BR2049, 5-Geo, 6-Foreigner, 7-V&A, 8-LNM, 9-KGC, 10-Barefoot in the Dawn 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 (edited) I’m willing to bet theaters will be willing to give both The Star and Wonder share a screen and OE and DH2 losing more rather than Thor no to mention the October holdovers to get rid of. BMXS can easily be swapped for DH2 since odds are it’ll lose a lot screens and theaters by Thanksgiving. Besides until Jedi, Thor has nothing to worry about in terms of screen loss. Edited November 7, 2017 by YourMother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 minute ago, YourMother said: I’m willing to bet theaters will be willing to give both The Star and Wonder share a screen and OE and DH2 losing more rather than Thor no to mention the October holdovers to get rid of. BMXS can easily be swapped for DH2 since odds are it’ll lose a lot screens and theaters by Thanksgiving. Besides until Jedi, Thor has nothing to worry about in terms of screen loss. However I think Thor like most MCU sequels will be frontloaded but I don’t see it missing $300M yet as it’s too early (2.45x-2.5x) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Am I the only one who think Thor's Monday number is just a little underwhelming. It's not horrible by any means, I just thought it would drop 65-70%, rather than over 74%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Just now, JB33 said: Am I the only one who think Thor's Monday number is just a little underwhelming. It's not horrible by any means, I just thought it would drop 65-70%, rather than over 74%. It’s rinse and repeat here. Everyone and their mother freaks out about Monday. Goes on a predict high Tuesday. Have Meltdowns Wednesday. Calm down Thursday and during the weekend everything is fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rthmessiah Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 (edited) Top Paydates 5-Nov All Thor 1-AMC Burbank 2-AMC Empire 25, New York City (Combined with Regal E-walk be #1..just) 3-AMC Metreon , San Francisco 4-AMC Lincoln Square, New York City 5-AMC Tysons Corner, Mclean VA 6-Regal Union Square , New York City 7-AMC Disney Springs, Orlando FL 8-Regal Irvine Spectrum 9-AMC Orange 30 10-AMC Century City 11-AMC Boston Commons 12-CM Mountain View CA 13-Regal New Roc City, New Rochelle NY 14-Regaul Kaufman Astoria, Astoria NY 15-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto ON 16-Regal LA Live 17-Pac Arclight Hollywood 18-Regal Houston Marq 19-AMC Garden State , Paramus NJ 20-AMC 34st, NEw York City Combined Regal Ontario Palace & AMC Ontario Mills be #2 Top Canada 1-CPLX Scotiabank, Toronto ON; 2-CPLX Cinema Banque, Montreal, 3-CPLX Queensway,Etobicoke ON;4-CPLX Scotiabank Vancouver;5-CPLX Scotiabank Edmonton Edited November 7, 2017 by Rth Ragnarok 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 (edited) 22 minutes ago, AndyChrono said: The average MCU multiplier you cite is mostly buoyed by non-sequels like GotG1, Avengers, Ant-Man, and Iron Man which had multipliers over 3x and some that got close like Dr Strange, Cap1, and Thor 1. Furthermore, some of those released in summer where they had stronger weekdays to leverage for better legs. The average multiplier for a MCU sequel film opening outside of summer is 2.477. This ranges from the highest one of 2.735 for Winter Soldier, to the woeful 2.279 of Civil War. Thus, a more reasonable prediction is something in the 2.5x range for Ragnarok, and if you wanted to go "below MCU average" with predictions it would be like a 2.45. The problem there is the fact that most of the MCU sequels have been some of the more poorly received movies in the franchise. If you divide MCU by critical and user score acclaim, the average multis look like this: Good/great reception Guadians of the Galaxy - 3.54x Iron Man -3.25x The Avengers - 3x Spiderman Homecoming - 2.85x The Winter Soldier - 2.73x Doctor Strange - 2.73x Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 2.66x Civil War - 2.28x Average: 2.88x Decent reception: Ant-Man - 3.15x Thor - 2.78x Captain America: The First Avenger - 2.7x Iron Man 3 - 2.35x Average: 2.74x Mixed/poor reception: The Incredible Hulk - 2.45x Iron Man 2 - 2.43x Thor The Dark World - 2.43x Avengers Age of Ultron - 2.4x Average: 2.43x CW and Ant-Man are really the only outliers in terms of reception and multis in the franchise, CW having a much worse multi than its reception should have indicated, and Ant-Man having much better. Edited November 7, 2017 by MovieMan89 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 (edited) Put Thor at $250M by the end of its third weekend. If it performs like Strange after Day 17, it'll finish with 320. Play like Dark World and you get 307. That's almost exactly a 2.5 to 2.6 multi. 312-315 seems like a pretty reasonable finish. Edited November 7, 2017 by RichWS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said: So basically no reason whatsoever for it fall more than SMH/WW, got it. And given its ratings and holds in OS market and its internal OW multiplier you could not be more wrong. And I have not seen the movie yet. I am simply going by the numbers and data available. And agreed by whom? people on this board? I am confused, one moment you say its stupid and early to say it will get great legs and then go and say that it will have short legs. Again I agree its too early to say it will have good legs, but in the same vein its too early to say it will have bad legs. You can't have it both ways mate. He's not saying it will have short legs, he's saying there is no reason to suspect it will have better than normal legs.....yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, YourMother said: It’s rinse and repeat here. Everyone and their mother freaks out about Monday. Goes on a predict high Tuesday. Have Meltdowns Wednesday. Calm down Thursday and during the weekend everything is fine. I'm not freaking out. It's not like I'm suggesting the movie is going to bomb now, or it's disappointing. It was a simple comment. Judging by other non-thanksgiving tebtpoles in the past, I just expected a little bit of a better drop and I was wondering if anyone else agreed. That's all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyK Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, JB33 said: Am I the only one who think Thor's Monday number is just a little underwhelming. It's not horrible by any means, I just thought it would drop 65-70%, rather than over 74%. If seems to me that if Sunday had dropped by a normal amount, the monday drop would have been less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, AndyK said: He's not saying it will have short legs, he's saying there is no reason to suspect it will have better than normal legs.....yet. And I agree with that and pretty much what I said too. The point of contention was ratings and reviews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, YourMother said: I’m willing to bet theaters will be willing to give both The Star and Wonder share a screen and OE and DH2 losing more rather than Thor no to mention the October holdovers to get rid of. BMXS can easily be swapped for DH2 since odds are it’ll lose a lot screens and theaters by Thanksgiving. Besides until Jedi, Thor has nothing to worry about in terms of screen loss. There is only one DH2... Stop the disgrarce!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
