Weekend Thread | Estimates: T:R 57.08M, DH2 29.65M, MOTOE 28.68M, ABMC 11.47M, 32.4K PTA for Lady Bird (Deadline, p.46) | The box office is good again!

[meriodejaneiro]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Honestly, I think it will underperform for 4 reasons...

1. It's released in the wrong season - this is the biggest "bug" I have - I wanted to watch this last month, and couldn't...and probably won't be in the mood now that turkeys will be in my oven next week...but this is personal...

2. Its ads remind one of other movies - it doesn't matter if the movie has nothing to do with them - they still remind you of the same...

3. It skews older - the fact you will be in tears, and it deals with death may scare away typical Disney animated viewers...I've been burned overpredicting sad animated movies I loved (hi Kubo) and all this "you'll be in tears" is a warning to my box office gut.  For every animated movie that makes this work, there are many more who don't b/c kids don't like to be sad at a movie, they really don't - it ruins it for them:)...

4. It's got a lot of competition who all beat it into the theater this weekend - even if you skip Thor and DH2 (and I do), you've got 3 movies this weekend all coming for the same audience in different ways...

 

I can always be wildly wrong...but $130-150M has just seemed like the number since before the year for me...it hasn't changed, b/c I knew it would be good...it could get a bump from repeat Moviepass watchers if it's good who may be as loyal to Pixar as Star Wars:)...that's an extra wildcard that we're still figuring out that will get bigger and bigger from now on...

 

1. ...nothing else to add...

2. What other movies? That Book of Life from some years back? I don't see any debate on the table or controversy about being a copy. 

3. UP, Finding Nemo, even Wall-E (the lone robot abandoned alone in a planet) or InsideOut (a gilr who has to manage with her sadness amongst other feelings).

4. Every weekend there are new releases, but this thanksgiving, Coco is the only high-profile release. All the other seem to be from minor studios or low-budget movies. How can a drama (Wonder) and a low-low budget Sony animation movie (The Star - 20M budget) can be a lot competition for Coco? Thor (4th weekend), Orient Express (3rd we), DH2 (3rd we) won't be competition at all. Just JL and they both can share the market till TLJ opens in mid-december. Coco will also have two full weekends until next nationwide release (Just Getting Started 8th december pg-13). 

 

I think $200M++  dom for Coco is expected, and if it connects with critics and wom, along Christmas it can go as high as almost 300M (remember how good did Moana and Sing during Christmas 2016 (RO Christmas). Moana made $75M in Christmas (fri 15th dec - sun 8th jan), being released in Thanksgiving too. 

 

Maybe i'm having a lot of hope on Coco.

[That One Girl]

Great job to the mods who moved this to the box office clubs subforum.

[aabattery]

🤔

[Shawn Robbins]

6 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Sniper didn't.

Nor did New Moon.

 

I argued with @Shawn right up until 24 hours before NM's release that it would do 100 mill OW.  He didn't buy into it at all.  

 

It's certainly possible, is all I'm saying.

I'd add Jurassic World to that list as well.

 

Also, regarding New Moon...

 

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Shawn said:

I'd add Jurassic World to that list as well.

 

Also, regarding New Moon...

 

 

 

It's all good buddy.  I was just using the NM thing as an example...just meaning that sometimes you just don't know how big something is going to be, even if the smartest guy at the website disagrees with you. 

[Shawn Robbins]

5 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

It's all good buddy.  I was just using the NM thing as an example...just meaning that sometimes you just don't know how big something is going to be, even if the smartest guy at the website disagrees with you. 

I don't know about that. 

 

Nah, you nailed that one better than anyone. I think the only thing pointing to a breakout for NM was the book popularity, which was honestly not as easy to gauge as something like Potter was before it for those of us who weren't really paying attention to Twilight's fan base. That weekend was fun though. I was glad to be wrong.