Weekend Thread | Estimates: T:R 57.08M, DH2 29.65M, MOTOE 28.68M, ABMC 11.47M, 32.4K PTA for Lady Bird (Deadline, p.46) | The box office is good again!

[baumer]

@Squadron Leader Tele....do you know how many examples there are of films defying expectations?

 

Titanic

TFA

Jurassic World

American Sniper

IT

New Moon

 

just to name a very small few.  All JL has to do is open well enough (150 or so) and have very positive WOM.  Getting north of as 3X isn't impossible.  I'm not saying it's likely, but far from impossible.

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

@Squadron Leader Tele....do you know how many examples there are of films defying expectations?

 

Titanic

TFA

Jurassic World

American Sniper

IT

New Moon

 

just to name a very small few.  All JL has to do is open well enough (150 or so) and have very positive WOM.  Getting north of as 3X isn't impossible.  I'm not saying it's likely, but far from impossible.

 

All of them had indicators they were gonna explode by this point in time, though*. JL doesn't. Just my opinion, of course.

 

 

 

 

 

*arguable exception of TITANIC, but c'mon, that's an outlier among all outliers.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

All of them had indicators they were gonna explode by this point in time, though*. JL doesn't. Just my opinion, of course.

 

 

 

 

 

*arguable exception of TITANIC, but c'mon, that's an outlier among all outliers.

 

What indicators is JL missing?  Tracking that we know of has it around 150.  We don't know what the reactions are going to be from Joe Public.  

 

And again, you are talking in absolutes.  We know only Siths do that.  

 

My point is people ragging on Jaros for saying it could do more than Thor and Coco combined are kind of being unfair.  It's possible.  That's all I'm saying.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

All of them had indicators they were gonna explode by this point in time, though*. JL doesn't. Just my opinion, of course.

 

 

 

 

 

*arguable exception of TITANIC, but c'mon, that's an outlier among all outliers.

 

Sniper didn't.

Nor did New Moon.

 

I argued with @Shawn right up until 24 hours before NM's release that it would do 100 mill OW.  He didn't buy into it at all.  

 

It's certainly possible, is all I'm saying.

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

Sniper didn't.

Nor did New Moon.

 

Sniper did before it<s wide release, it's 4 theater PTA performance made it quite obvious something special was going on.

 

Sequel of recent movie in general tend to be more previsible (their comparable for tracker), specially with the target audience of JL , no ? It would be surprising for tracker to miss a movie like that by a lot. An audience shift (say family heavy) could do it I suppose.

[Plain Old Tele]

5 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

What indicators is JL missing?  Tracking that we know of has it around 150.  We don't know what the reactions are going to be from Joe Public.  

 

And again, you are talking in absolutes.  We know only Siths do that.  

 

My point is people ragging on Jaros for saying it could do more than Thor and Coco combined are kind of being unfair.  It's possible.  That's all I'm saying.

 

Tracking is officially in the 100-120m+ range. It's been relatively there, more or less, for the last couple of weeks. EC has repeatedly mentioned it's not selling as strongly as he expected and downgraded his (general) prediction to 130m or so.

 

The "tracking around 150m" is based on Deep Wang's info compared to BVS presales, but there's a world of assumptions we're making there and that's not quite the same thing.

 

I was kinda bullish on it in the Winter Game -- I had it opening at 145m and getting to 390m domestic, but it really does seem like those are both optimistic targets right now.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Barnack said:

Sniper did before it<s wide release, it's 4 theater PTA performance made it quite obvious something special was going on.

 

Sequel of recent movie in general tend to be more previsible (their comparable for tracker), specially with the target audience of JL , no ? It would be surprising for tracker to miss a movie like that by a lot. An audience shift (say family heavy) could do it I suppose.

 

Sniper didn't do it.  You can stop right there.  There are dozens of examples of films that have fucking massive per theater averages when in limited release and not one of them has ever gone on to open to 90 million.  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

Tracking is officially in the 100-120m+ range. It's been relatively there, more or less, for the last couple of weeks. EC has repeatedly mentioned it's not selling as strongly as he expected and downgraded his (general) prediction to 130m or so.

 

The "tracking around 150m" is based on Deep Wang's info compared to BVS presales, but there's a world of assumptions we're making there and that's not quite the same thing.

 

I was kinda bullish on it in the Winter Game -- I had it opening at 145m and getting to 390m domestic, but it really does seem like those are both optimistic targets right now.

 

I think you're missing my point.  

 

I'm not saying it's going to make more than Thor/Coco combined.  I'm simply stating that it's not as ludicrous as some are making it out to be.  It's not like we're talking about Three Billboards making more than Thor and Coco combined.  Do you know what I mean?

[Jonwo]

14 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

@Squadron Leader Tele....do you know how many examples there are of films defying expectations?

 

Titanic

TFA

Jurassic World

American Sniper

IT

New Moon

 

just to name a very small few.  All JL has to do is open well enough (150 or so) and have very positive WOM.  Getting north of as 3X isn't impossible.  I'm not saying it's likely, but far from impossible.

Shouldn't Avatar be in there? Star Wars wasn't a surprise and IT we had a inkling it would break out. The first Hunger Games did way more than expected for example. I agree about JW and AS although JW was one where everyone knew it would do well but not as big as it was.

 

Warner Bros has already had a huge hit with IT and Wonder Woman, JL can do solid business and they'll be happy. If it does $150-160m then that's fantastic for November, $160m would means the November record.

[Plain Old Tele]

12 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

I'm simply stating that it's not as ludicrous as some are making it out to be. 

 

Maybe not insanely ludicrous, but it's pretty ludicrous.

 

Which is fine, we all make crazy predictions, of course.

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Sniper didn't do it.  You can stop right there.  There are dozens of examples of films that have fucking massive per theater averages when in limited release and not one of them has ever gone on to open to 90 million.  

I said that it was clear that something special was going on (not necessarily 90m obviously), before it's wide release it was tracking to go above 50m:

 

http://www.phillymag.com/ticket/2015/01/14/bradley-cooper-kevin-hart-expected-rule-box-office-weekend/

 

The movie was tracking to have the biggest opening weekend in january history, it showed clear sign of something special going on, now that was a movie with no precedant, R-rated january opening weekend like that never happened before, JL is quite different, it is arguably a more common release to track, with a good pool of giant blockbuster opening around that time and similar giant superheroes movie to compare it too.

 

Like I said, it could shift is demography a lot for the trackers to miss it, but that is not the type of movie (sequel of a very successful one, a popular genre with many recent comparable) and has a target audience that do not tend to be missed by tracker.

 

In the list of movie that surprised a lot their tracking, do we find many direct sequel (without large period between release) ?

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

Maybe not insanely ludicrous, but it's pretty ludicrous.

 

Which is fine, we all make crazy predictions, of course.

 

I'm not predicting it to do it either......just saying it's not ludicrous.  

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, Christmas baumer said:

 

I'm not predicting it to do it either......just saying it's not ludicrous.  

 

I guess my point is this: I think a movie can either outperform expectations in one way, but not two. For example, it can either have a bigger OW than expected or better legs than expected, but not both. So with movies like TITANIC or AVATAR or even something like WW, you have relatively modest openings (compared to expectations) and then excellent legs. With movies like FORCE AWAKENS or JW or something, you have huge openings but then relatively normal legs (again, compared to expectations). 

 

For JL to do more than, say, 400m, we're basically asking it to do both. It has to over-perform on OW and then have amazing legs too.

[narniadis]

All I can say about SteveJarros is that a broken clock is still right twice a day. I doubt it's right this time but you can't deny that it is at least a possibility. 

 

Frankly I see Coco going over 200m making this moot since JL is not sniffing 500m. 

[Rebeccas]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

All I can say about SteveJarros is that a broken clock is still right twice a day. I doubt it's right this time but you can't deny that it is at least a possibility. 

 

Frankly I see Coco going over 200m making this moot since JL is not sniffing 500m. 

It’s also possible that the world ends before the last jedi comes out! 

Edited November 14, 2017 by Rebeccas

[TwoMisfits]

26 minutes ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

I guess my point is this: I think a movie can either outperform expectations in one way, but not two. For example, it can either have a bigger OW than expected or better legs than expected, but not both. So with movies like TITANIC or AVATAR or even something like WW, you have relatively modest openings (compared to expectations) and then excellent legs. With movies like FORCE AWAKENS or JW or something, you have huge openings but then relatively normal legs (again, compared to expectations). 

 

For JL to do more than, say, 400m, we're basically asking it to do both. It has to over-perform on OW and then have amazing legs too.

So, we're asking it to be Avengers...tracking at $150M - opened at $207M...ended with a 3.0x+ multiplier...

https://www.newsarama.com/9454-avengers-box-office-official-207-4m-654-8-global.html

 

Nope, I don't see any similarities between the 1st fun Marvel team up of popular characters and the 1st fun DC team up of popular characters:)...

 

Just saying, Tele, maybe you gotta give a little on your statement b/c we have had movies wildly beat tracking OW and then eventual BO...and we always have movies that break the "stats" system and just explode unexpectedly...

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, we're asking it to be Avengers...tracking at $150M - opened at $207M...ended with a 3.0x+ multiplier...

https://www.newsarama.com/9454-avengers-box-office-official-207-4m-654-8-global.html

 

Nope, I don't see any similarities between the 1st fun Marvel team up of popular characters and the 1st fun DC team up of popular characters:)...

 

Just saying, Tele, maybe you gotta give a little on your statement b/c we have had movies wildly beat tracking OW and then eventual BO...and we always have movies that break the "stats" system and just explode unexpectedly...

It’s not that JL can’t do it, but a lot of things have to go right for it to happen. I’m also of the opinion that Coco at 150 mil is a bit too low, so that makes the discussion pretty close to dead. 

[meriodejaneiro]

Honestly, I don't understand why most of you are underpredicting Coco's boxoffice so much. I see it making InsideOut numbers perfectly.

It's visually attractive, the story seems to be touchy (China has given it a release date although being a dead/ghosts movie) ... 

You think it will underperform in the USA because of Trump-mexican controversy and will suffer from some kind of boycott? I don't see that happening.

[TwoMisfits]

36 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Honestly, I don't understand why most of you are underpredicting Coco's boxoffice so much. I see it making InsideOut numbers perfectly.

It's visually attractive, the story seems to be touchy (China has given it a release date although being a dead/ghosts movie) ... 

You think it will underperform in the USA because of Trump-mexican controversy and will suffer from some kind of boycott? I don't see that happening.

Honestly, I think it will underperform for 4 reasons...

1. It's released in the wrong season - this is the biggest "bug" I have - I wanted to watch this last month, and couldn't...and probably won't be in the mood now that turkeys will be in my oven next week...but this is personal...

2. Its ads remind one of other movies - it doesn't matter if the movie has nothing to do with them - they still remind you of the same...

3. It skews older - the fact you will be in tears, and it deals with death may scare away typical Disney animated viewers...I've been burned overpredicting sad animated movies I loved (hi Kubo) and all this "you'll be in tears" is a warning to my box office gut.  For every animated movie that makes this work, there are many more who don't b/c kids don't like to be sad at a movie, they really don't - it ruins it for them:)...

4. It's got a lot of competition who all beat it into the theater this weekend - even if you skip Thor and DH2 (and I do), you've got 3 movies this weekend all coming for the same audience in different ways...

 

I can always be wildly wrong...but $130-150M has just seemed like the number since before the year for me...it hasn't changed, b/c I knew it would be good...it could get a bump from repeat Moviepass watchers if it's good who may be as loyal to Pixar as Star Wars:)...that's an extra wildcard that we're still figuring out that will get bigger and bigger from now on...

Edited November 14, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Avatree]

Justice League will gross less than Thor. Mark my words.