Weekend Thread | Estimates: T:R 57.08M, DH2 29.65M, MOTOE 28.68M, ABMC 11.47M, 32.4K PTA for Lady Bird (Deadline, p.46) | The box office is good again!

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Daddy's Home is going to fuck all of our derbies  

And some of our Winter Games. Specifically Week 3.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Lady Bird is still doing astonishing with about a $30K PTA for the weekend. I think this is going places in expansion.

 

And amazing start for Three Billboards too with an $80K+ PTA. So great to see specialty box office on fire.

 

Too bad that can't be said for Last Flag Flying, which is going to struggle to make $1M in total at this point.

You've been pretty quiet about Daddy's Home after all the doom and gloom  

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

You've been pretty quiet about Daddy's Home after all the doom and gloom  

It is what it is. Meanwhile, it's still gonna lose about half the audience from the first movie, so technically it's still yet another lose for the comedy sequel.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

It is what it is. Meanwhile, it's still gonna lose about half the audience from the first movie, so technically it's still yet another lose for the comedy sequel.

Sure about that? 100M might be in play.

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Sure about that? 100M might be in play.

It's a sequel and everything is gonna get hammered by Justice League next weekend. Thanksgiving weekend drop will be small though.

[Alli]

So both Mel Gibson and Johnny Depp had hits opening this weekend. shows you the public doesn't care about an actor's personal life.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

So both Mel Gibson and Johnny Depp had hits opening this weekend. shows you the public doesn't care about an actor's personal life.

Eh, Mel Gibson's stuff was a long time ago, and Depp's abuse wasn't widely reported and mostly forgotten about.

[Rumpot]

The last few weekends have seen Saturday and Sunday estimates/actuals rise for most movies.  I assume and hope that will happen again today.  An adult-skewing movie opening well, a poorly reviewed comedy sequel opening well, and an R-Rated sequel gathering some legs, and some promising limiteds are signs that the box office really needed. 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

The last few weekends have seen Saturday and Sunday estimates/actuals rise for most movies.  I assume and hope that will happen again today.  An adult-skewing movie opening well, a poorly reviewed comedy sequel opening well, and an R-Rated sequel gathering some legs, and some promising limiteds are signs that the box office really needed. 

Saturday increases likely won't be too high since a lot of people had yesterday off due to Veteran's Day (which is really today but is a common thing when it falls on the weekend, if it's a Sunday then people have Monday off).

Edited November 11, 2017 by filmlover

[Rumpot]

Just now, filmlover said:

Saturday increases likely won't be too high since a lot of people had off yesterday.

I don't mean the rises relative to Friday - I mean from what is being predicted based on Friday numbers (though I guess you may mean either or both) but I don't think as many people and schools were off as last year.  Everyone I know had work and the huge school district here in Fairfax County was open. And I live right on the outskirts of DC

[mahnamahna]

8 hours ago, YourMother said:

If I were to rearrange November-December slate I’d do:

11/3/17

Ragnarok

Ferdinand

 

11/10/17

Murder On The Orient Express

 

11/17/17

Justice League 

Wonder 

 

11/22/17

Coco

Bad Moms 2

Shape of Water (maybe)

 

12/8/17

The Star

 

 

12/15/17

Jedi

Greatest Showman

 

The Christmas slate stays the same.

I'd make a November-December schedule like this:

Spoiler

10/27 

Murder on the Orient Express (dead October could have gotten this to a $32-35 million OW) 

 

11/3 

Thor - Ragnorak

Ferdinand

 

11/10

Daddy's Home 2 

Just Getting Started (different audience than DH2) 

 

11/17

Justice League 

Wonder

 

11/22

Coco 

Lady Bird (wide expansion) 

A Bad Moms Christmas

 

12/1

The Shape of Water (wide expansion) 

 

12/8

The Star

The Disaster Artist (wide expansion)

 

12/15

Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi

The Greatest Showman

 

12/20

Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle

Father Figures

Downsizing

 

12/22

Pitch Perfect 3

 

 

[a2k]

Thor3 should end up around 53m with an 18.5m Friday with a 15% Sat bump and 37% Sun drop. 

53m would be a 56.8% drop, little better than Thor2's 57.3% drop despite sequelitis and 4 years worth of growth in previews.

A strong number honestly marred by the 60m+ articles by Deadline (61-63), THR (60+), Variety (61).

[Mr Impossible]

Wow at Bad Mom’s Christmas stellar hold. Should hold well next weekend it doesn’t have direct competition with Justice League, actually it might get helped. With thanksgiving and holidays coming, it could go $80M+ DOM. 

[PDC1987]

6 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Both Johnny Depp and Mel Gibson are no longer box office poison

Let's not pretend they were the only stars in these 2 films.

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, Fancyarcher said:

Around 28m at best depending on Saturday and Sunday's holds. It's actually a lot better then what most of us were expecting it to do. 

I'd love to know how Moviepass is playing this weekend:)...It's now up to over 600K subscribers and it's starting to have a real effect, especially on OW movies...Deadline even commented on the effect last weekend, so I'm hoping they do again this one - you figure every subscriber uses it 1x/weekend (b/c some will use it 3 times and some 0 times, so it evens out), so that's about $8-10M of weekend BO up for grabs...

[YM!]

44 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

I'd make a November-December schedule like this:

  Hide contents

10/27 

Murder on the Orient Express (dead October could have gotten this to a $32-35 million OW) 

 

11/3 

Thor - Ragnorak

Ferdinand

 

11/10

Daddy's Home 2 

Just Getting Started (different audience than DH2) 

 

11/17

Justice League 

Wonder

 

11/22

Coco 

Lady Bird (wide expansion) 

A Bad Moms Christmas

 

12/1

The Shape of Water (wide expansion) 

 

12/8

The Star

The Disaster Artist (wide expansion)

 

12/15

Star Wars Episode VIII - The Last Jedi

The Greatest Showman

 

12/20

Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle

Father Figures

Downsizing

 

12/22

Pitch Perfect 3

 

 

I’d like the schedule. Everything on their would have the advantage to make solid money.

[filmlover]

I think they reported that MoviePass made up about 10% of Lady Bird's attendance last weekend. It'll be great if this leads to the awards movies finding a wider audience this year.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Rumpot said:

I don't mean the rises relative to Friday - I mean from what is being predicted based on Friday numbers (though I guess you may mean either or both) but I don't think as many people and schools were off as last year.  Everyone I know had work and the huge school district here in Fairfax County was open. And I live right on the outskirts of DC

Feds were off, though...that is an enormous amount of normally busy adults to add to the pool...

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think they reported that MoviePass made up about 10% of Lady Bird's attendance last weekend. It'll be great if this leads to the awards movies finding a wider audience this year.

Right - that's what I'm wondering - since the 2 openers didn't have bonkers presales, they were wide open for Moviepass viewing OW...so how many folks viewed them early:)...

[La Binoche]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think they reported that MoviePass made up about 10% of Lady Bird's attendance last weekend. It'll be great if this leads to the awards movies finding a wider audience this year.

And that's with Arclight not accepting MoviePass.