riczhang Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Nope. If this is the line-up than Leo takes it. His competitiors are all past winners. They wouldn`t put him in if they didn`t want to award him. Not to mention that the role is baity as fuck. A bone fide movie star takes a super risky, bold role that many would think twice before signing for, has a monologue that is awards wet dream, is a past nominee so not a one-hit wonder,etc. I get that people are confused because of SAG situation but that wasn`t a snub. They haven`t received the screeners which means they haven`t seen him. I think those 4 past winners will be in the Oscar line-up with 5th spot going to one of Leo, Henry, Waltz, SLJ (apparently he`s campaigning), Redmayne. Also, the race is shaping up to award several past winners (Bigelow? DDL? Spielberg? Some BSAactor?) so someone has to be first time winner. This. TLJ's too old and a previous winner. This year's winner will be relatively young and a first-time winner considering they just award super veteran Plummer last year. Leo's the only one that fits the bill. And I think the last spot I think will be Redmayne replacing either Arkin or DeNiro. Some people are predicting a line-up of 5 previous winners which is ridiculous and will never happen because the Academy always will have a first-time nominee here (as is the tradition in acting categories. Actress last had 5 returning nominees 18 years ago and before that 20 years I believe).People are talking about 5 returning winners when 5 returning nominees is something that almost never happens. Even if you are predicting Leo that's 5 returning nominees which I don't think statistically is very likely to happen. The only two viable first time nominee candidates would be Henry and Redmayne. Redmayne obviously being the more likely choice so I'll go with him as my #5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickvD Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 But shouldn`t. One showstopper number does not a BSA make. Also, her work in TDKR was much stronger and rangey. That`s a role for which she should win.Really? For the over the top screaming and walking in and out of the movie for no reason?As cliché and Oscar-bait-ish as her role in Les Misérables is, she has the pipes to back it up and she actually breathed new life into the play's quintessential song that everyone has sung the same way for decades. The role of Fantine will forever be associated with Hathaway.While I think neither of her roles should win the Oscar, if I had to pick one, Les Misérables it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 After seeing Compliance I don't think Ann Dowd will make it, but I hope she does. Great performance in what is, in a way, the scariest film of the year. Which would likely be a turn-off for many voters who decide to watch it. In that way it goes even further than We Need to Talk About Kevin did last year - that, while disturbing, still wasn't controversial, had a much higher pedigree and was an artistic horror through and through. Compliance is a horror that's raw, stripped-down and bare-bones (no puns intended), making it only harder to witness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Ann Dowd is getting in, somehow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Really? For the over the top screaming and walking in and out of the movie for no reason?As cliché and Oscar-bait-ish as her role in Les Misérables is, she has the pipes to back it up and she actually breathed new life into the play's quintessential song that everyone has sung the same way for decades. The role of Fantine will forever be associated with Hathaway.While I think neither of her roles should win the Oscar, if I had to pick one, Les Misérables it is.I think that her role in Les Miserables despite being called Oscar bait, and Oscar begging, and being hyped up (and now confirmed) as the Oscar winner isn't a particularly a role that was made to win an Oscar. She has about 20 minutes of screentime at most in a 3 hours long movie. She's in the beginning,dies, and disappears until the very end. It's not a role that the Academy would 150% guaranteed go absolute bonkers over unlike Streep's Thatcher, or DDL's Lincoln. They could very easily have passed over her because of her relatively not so big nature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I think Sally Field and Helen Hunt have a much better chance with AMPAS members than most people are willing to admit. The most important thing in Hathaway's favor is that Les Miz isn't likely to win either BP or BD and AMPAS members may want to award the movie nonetheless so she is the obvious choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 That and Hathaway is a previous nominee who's had her best year yet in 2012. Field has two Oscars already, Hunt has one, and neither has been nominated for any - or delivered any unjustly overlooked performances, for that matter - for almost 30 years in the case of the former and 15 years in the case of the latter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackO Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I only want Hathaway to win to ensure Lincoln doesn't sweep. I'll just pretend it is for TDKR not Les Zzz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 My predictionsAnne Hathaway-Les MiserablesSally Field-LincolnHelen Hunt-The SessionsAmy Adams-The MasterSamantha Barks-Les Miserables Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Anyone but Field. Her having 3 Oscars is a travesty of epic proportions, especially if she goes 3 for 3. It's the same number as Meryl Streep, Nicholson, and Bergman. She'd be a shameful addition to the list of Actors with more than 2 Oscars. Hepburn, Nicholson, Bergman, Brennan, La Streep, + Sally Field. :sick: :sick: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Field was way over the top if she wins ill throw my remote at the tv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acsc1312 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I'm thinking Kidman for sure gets a nom after recent events. I'd love to see Barks get in, but I highly doubt it. So help me God, if Field wins... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dark Alfred Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Yes, Kidman will get the 5th nod, this cat is wrapped. No competition here, Anne Hathaway has it in the bag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I'm thinking Kidman for sure gets a nom after recent events. I'd love to see Barks get in, but I highly doubt it. So help me God, if Field wins...Ew.... Kidman. I had almost forgotten that she existed. And while Barks getting in is lovely, I don't want her to. She'll split votes with Hathaway, which increases the chance of Field winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acsc1312 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I can't wait for Kidman to get her second Oscar. Mostly for the same reason I want Penn to win his second. Both are extremely talented, needlessly hated on the internet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 (edited) I can't wait for Kidman to get her second Oscar. Mostly for the same reason I want Penn to win his second. Both are extremely talented, needlessly hated on the internet.WTF? Kidman #2? Maybe if she does something good again.And we only hate her because of her botoxed forehead. Edited December 31, 2012 by riczhang Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acsc1312 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 WTF? Kidman #2? Maybe if she does something good again.And we only hate her because of her botoxed forehead. I think she actually should've gotten it for Rabbit Hole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I think Kidman is one of the most talented actresses of her generation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forg Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Kidman was terrific in Rabbit Hole.I hope Amy Adams could still score a nod, the SAG snub was surprising and could really hurt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forg Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 But shouldn`t. One showstopper number does not a BSA make. Also, her work in TDKR was much stronger and rangey. That`s a role for which she should win. Well Jennifer Hudson won for one showstopper number so it's very possible for Anne. But the reviews for Les Mis put a dent on her chances from unbeatable to just a vulnerable frontrunner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
