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What will be the 200th 200m grosser?

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According to BOM, 186 films have crossed $200m domestic, which means we should be getting the 200th soon! Assuming JL, Coco, and TLJ cross $200m, which should be fairly likely, 2018 needs to have 11 200m+ grossers. 

 

The following titles seem very likely, in not guaranteed.

 

Black Panther

Infity War

Han Solo

Deadpool 2

The Incredibles 2

Jurassic World 2

Ant Man and the Wasp

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch

Wreck-It Ralph 2

Aquaman

Mary Poppins Returns

 

That's 11 titles right there. So what do we think? Can the milestone be reached by the end of next year?

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Let's try this:

 

187. Justice League

188. Last Jedi

189. Black Panther

190. A Wrinkle in Time

191. Ready Player One

192. Avengers: Infinity War

193. Solo: A Star Wars Story

194. Deadpool 2

195. The Incredibles 2

196. Jurassic World 2

197. Ant-Man and the Wasp

198. How the Grinch Stole Christmas

199. Mortal Engines

200. Aquaman

Edited by That One Guy
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15 minutes ago, narniadis said:

General gut feeling or are you heading whispers? 

100% no whispers. Sheer gut. It's one thing to dump Alice 2 in Civil War's fourth weekend. But a Star Wars movie? Against an arguably bigger event -level Avengers? I just don't buy it.

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11 minutes ago, Shawn said:

100% no whispers. Sheer gut. It's one thing to dump Alice 2 in Civil War's fourth weekend. But a Star Wars movie? Against an arguably bigger event -level Avengers? I just don't buy it.

The reason they're not going with a December opening like the others is because they're dead set on Mary Poppins Returns being their Christmas blockbuster.

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44 minutes ago, Shawn said:

100% no whispers. Sheer gut. It's one thing to dump Alice 2 in Civil War's fourth weekend. But a Star Wars movie? Against an arguably bigger event -level Avengers? I just don't buy it.

Avengers' 4th weekend is it's last concern when Deadpool, Incredibles, and Jurassic World are there to 1-2-3 punch it into a quick grave.

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I do think that's a terrible release date for Solo.  Especially given the internal competition between it, Avengers and Incredibles 2 it creates. 

 

They should move it back somewhere, even if not to December.  However, from a SW brand perspective, I definitely think December makes the most sense.  They could easily alter their November schedule to compensate.

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40 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Avengers' 4th weekend is it's last concern when Deadpool, Incredibles, and Jurassic World are there to 1-2-3 punch it into a quick grave.

That too. But it's one thing for a studio to think it can take out the competition. It's another -- and far outside of typically wise Disney strategy -- to cannibalize itself.

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1 hour ago, Shawn said:

100% no whispers. Sheer gut. It's one thing to dump Alice 2 in Civil War's fourth weekend. But a Star Wars movie? Against an arguably bigger event -level Avengers? I just don't buy it.

I understand what you are saying but it seems Disney loves to follow that pattern.

 

2015

AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON

TOMORROWLAND

 

2016

CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR

ALICE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS

 

2017

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES

 

2018

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY

 

2019

UNTITLED AVENGERS

ALADDIN

 

However, just like what I said, if SOLO keeps that date, it might get affected by the other releases big time.

 

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2 hours ago, filmlover said:

The reason they're not going with a December opening like the others is because they're dead set on Mary Poppins Returns being their Christmas blockbuster.

I don't necessarily disagree but MP has less audience crossover with SW than SW does with Avengers, Deadpool, Jurassic, and Incredibles.

 

It's a first world problem for Disney to have, but if I were them, I'd rather put Han at Christmas where it has less competition (both internally and externally) and SW has proven to be massively successful two -- presumably three -- years in a row now.

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3 hours ago, spaghetti! said:

According to BOM, 186 films have crossed $200m domestic, which means we should be getting the 200th soon! Assuming JL, Coco, and TLJ cross $200m, which should be fairly likely, 2018 needs to have 11 200m+ grossers. 

 

The following titles seem very likely, in not guaranteed.

 

Black Panther

Infity War

Han Solo

Deadpool 2 

The Incredibles 2

Jurassic World 2

Ant Man and the Wasp

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch

Wreck-It Ralph 2

Aquaman

Mary Poppins Returns 

 

That's 11 titles right there. So what do we think? Can the milestone be reached by the end of next year?

 

I think it could be WIR2 or AQM if 1 or 2 movies not listed here and makes it to 200m (RPO surprises or something).

 

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