Bluebomb Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Madagascar 3 and Ice Age 4, which one to win in Asia markets ?Brave wont do that well either in Asia except Japan.Ice Age 4. It will do very well in China, moreso than Madagascar 3.I found this quite fascinating. HK and Japan I think are the only Asian markets where there is a clear winner (Ice Age in HK, Madagascar in Japan). The rest of the markets seem to be very close with each other between the two films. Ultimately, I think the winner of the biggest animated film this year in Asia will come down to China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted April 10, 2012 Author Share Posted April 10, 2012 IA4 will win here. I see 80M for IA4 and 20M for Mad 3 in China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 500Let's not be uber optimistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 LOW TO 450M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Still can't see it over 350M. Kids will have the option to see TASM, IA4 and Brave also, and this looks like the least appealing of them all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 But this will come first of them all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 But this will come first of them all.Not everywhere. Kids don't have unlimited purses and most parents only take them to see 1-2 films in summer.They are most likely to choose from IA4/TASM if they could see only one film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 And they consume Mad 3 first in most markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentryTrans Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 The Western European market are the keys.Hope Mad 3 won't decrease too much in Western Europe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 (edited) Madagascar 3 predicted out of Madagascar 2 with the same increase as IA3 had over IA2 in each countryRussia - CIS 94,277,772.80Germany 63,176,724.51France 60,423,409.19Italy 58,934,297.90Brazil 38,627,254.33United Kingdom 38,542,422.85Spain 27,764,447.37Mexico 22,559,159.64Venezuela 21,074,735.81Australia 20,778,702.01China 20,000,000.00Poland 17,955,569.76Netherlands 15,322,466.44Switzerland 12,825,188.25Portugal 10,450,051.85Austria 9,454,689.23Belgium 7,942,397.15Czech Republic 7,248,529.05Argentina 6,485,358.18Israel 6,107,792.17Malaysia 5,894,822.65Colombia 5,868,280.19Finland 5,331,893.38South Korea 5,289,783.34Hong Kong 5,189,069.62Peru 5,105,081.50Ukraine 5,033,264.45Singapore 4,743,149.30Indonesia 4,697,215.32Norway 4,672,336.46Sweden 4,557,621.94Greece 4,387,100.45Denmark 4,320,787.85Chile 3,920,049.30Turkey 3,727,732.86Hungary 3,456,118.19Slovakia 3,269,101.87New Zealand 2,725,095.10United Arab Emirates 2,478,534.38Romania 2,472,041.10Ecuador 2,178,586.56Bulgaria 2,037,599.53Slovenia 2,028,260.30Philippines 2,019,366.72South Africa (Entire 1,981,583.50Lithuania 1,887,135.48Japan 1,613,411.60Croatia 1,256,926.38Taiwan 924,479.80Latvia 900,379.55Lebanon 801,982.79Thailand 755,710.79Bolivia 730,587.37Uruguay 685,493.06Estonia 509,833.09Serbia & Montenegro 415,135.04Egypt 351,945.96Iceland 95,389.22OS $668mRussia is quite irrealistic or is it?Japan is funny $1.6m Edited May 8, 2012 by Rudolf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 If that number happens for Portugal I will cry in joy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 remember 3D doesn't seem to help animated films that much. Take a look at the jumps of Shrek 4 and Kung Fu Panda 2, less than 100M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Madagascar 3 predicted out of Madagascar 2 with the same increase as IA3 had over IA2 in each countryRussia - CIS 94,277,772.80Germany 63,176,724.51France 60,423,409.19Italy 58,934,297.90Brazil 38,627,254.33United Kingdom 38,542,422.85Spain 27,764,447.37Mexico 22,559,159.64Venezuela 21,074,735.81Australia 20,778,702.01China 20,000,000.00Poland 17,955,569.76Netherlands 15,322,466.44Switzerland 12,825,188.25Portugal 10,450,051.85Austria 9,454,689.23Belgium 7,942,397.15Czech Republic 7,248,529.05Argentina 6,485,358.18Israel 6,107,792.17Malaysia 5,894,822.65Colombia 5,868,280.19Finland 5,331,893.38South Korea 5,289,783.34Hong Kong 5,189,069.62Peru 5,105,081.50Ukraine 5,033,264.45Singapore 4,743,149.30Indonesia 4,697,215.32Norway 4,672,336.46Sweden 4,557,621.94Greece 4,387,100.45Denmark 4,320,787.85Chile 3,920,049.30Turkey 3,727,732.86Hungary 3,456,118.19Slovakia 3,269,101.87New Zealand 2,725,095.10United Arab Emirates 2,478,534.38Romania 2,472,041.10Ecuador 2,178,586.56Bulgaria 2,037,599.53Slovenia 2,028,260.30Philippines 2,019,366.72South Africa (Entire 1,981,583.50Lithuania 1,887,135.48Japan 1,613,411.60Croatia 1,256,926.38Taiwan 924,479.80Latvia 900,379.55Lebanon 801,982.79Thailand 755,710.79Bolivia 730,587.37Uruguay 685,493.06Estonia 509,833.09Serbia & Montenegro 415,135.04Egypt 351,945.96Iceland 95,389.22OS $668mRussia is quite irrealistic or is it?Japan is funny $1.6m Madagascar 3 predicted out of Madagascar 2 with the same increase as IA3 had over IA2 in each countryRussia - CIS 94,277,772.80Germany 63,176,724.51France 60,423,409.19Italy 58,934,297.90Brazil 38,627,254.33United Kingdom 38,542,422.85Spain 27,764,447.37Mexico 22,559,159.64Venezuela 21,074,735.81Australia 20,778,702.01China 20,000,000.00Poland 17,955,569.76Netherlands 15,322,466.44Switzerland 12,825,188.25Portugal 10,450,051.85Austria 9,454,689.23Belgium 7,942,397.15Czech Republic 7,248,529.05Argentina 6,485,358.18Israel 6,107,792.17Malaysia 5,894,822.65Colombia 5,868,280.19Finland 5,331,893.38South Korea 5,289,783.34Hong Kong 5,189,069.62Peru 5,105,081.50Ukraine 5,033,264.45Singapore 4,743,149.30Indonesia 4,697,215.32Norway 4,672,336.46Sweden 4,557,621.94Greece 4,387,100.45Denmark 4,320,787.85Chile 3,920,049.30Turkey 3,727,732.86Hungary 3,456,118.19Slovakia 3,269,101.87New Zealand 2,725,095.10United Arab Emirates 2,478,534.38Romania 2,472,041.10Ecuador 2,178,586.56Bulgaria 2,037,599.53Slovenia 2,028,260.30Philippines 2,019,366.72South Africa (Entire 1,981,583.50Lithuania 1,887,135.48Japan 1,613,411.60Croatia 1,256,926.38Taiwan 924,479.80Latvia 900,379.55Lebanon 801,982.79Thailand 755,710.79Bolivia 730,587.37Uruguay 685,493.06Estonia 509,833.09Serbia & Montenegro 415,135.04Egypt 351,945.96Iceland 95,389.22OS $668mRussia is quite irrealistic or is it?Japan is funny $1.6m$94m in Russia??? A little bit optimistic..$60m-$70m seems more realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 (edited) Of course I don't believe in $94m for Russia, but I did not want to change the methodology. Mexico will probably get more than $22.5m.I think Russia's gross will be more than 50% of DOM. Edited May 9, 2012 by Rudolf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
udolpho Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 (edited) Madagascar 3 predicted out of Madagascar 2 with the same increase as IA3 had over IA2 in each countryRussia - CIS 94,277,772.80Germany 63,176,724.51France 60,423,409.19Italy 58,934,297.90Brazil 38,627,254.33United Kingdom 38,542,422.85Spain 27,764,447.37Mexico 22,559,159.64Venezuela 21,074,735.81Australia 20,778,702.01China 20,000,000.00Poland 17,955,569.76Netherlands 15,322,466.44Switzerland 12,825,188.25Portugal 10,450,051.85Austria 9,454,689.23Belgium 7,942,397.15Czech Republic 7,248,529.05Argentina 6,485,358.18Israel 6,107,792.17Malaysia 5,894,822.65Colombia 5,868,280.19Finland 5,331,893.38South Korea 5,289,783.34Hong Kong 5,189,069.62Peru 5,105,081.50Ukraine 5,033,264.45Singapore 4,743,149.30Indonesia 4,697,215.32Norway 4,672,336.46Sweden 4,557,621.94Greece 4,387,100.45Denmark 4,320,787.85Chile 3,920,049.30Turkey 3,727,732.86Hungary 3,456,118.19Slovakia 3,269,101.87New Zealand 2,725,095.10United Arab Emirates 2,478,534.38Romania 2,472,041.10Ecuador 2,178,586.56Bulgaria 2,037,599.53Slovenia 2,028,260.30Philippines 2,019,366.72South Africa (Entire 1,981,583.50Lithuania 1,887,135.48Japan 1,613,411.60Croatia 1,256,926.38Taiwan 924,479.80Latvia 900,379.55Lebanon 801,982.79Thailand 755,710.79Bolivia 730,587.37Uruguay 685,493.06Estonia 509,833.09Serbia & Montenegro 415,135.04Egypt 351,945.96Iceland 95,389.22OS $668mRussia is quite irrealistic or is it?Japan is funny $1.6mSorry but that's a bit unrealistic isn't? IA3 increased so much from IA2 in Europe because it moved from a March/April release date to the much bigger month of July where it faced no competition untill Up started it's slow roll out at the end of July (and a lot of European markets didn't even get Up until Sep/Oct).M3 on the other hand is moving from a big holiday Dec release for M2 into June. After it starts rolling out on 6 June it faces - the European Championships from 8 June - 1 July, IA4 starting from the 27 June, the Olympics from 27 July - 12 August and Brave from 1 August. In the UK and Germany M3 isn't even opening till Oct and while it might do OK there it won't manage any IA3 type rises or holds.All said and done M3 will probably do well just to stay flat across Europe this year.And yes - first! (of probably not very many) posts! Whoo-hoo! Edited May 9, 2012 by udolpho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Sorry but that's a bit unrealistic isn't? IA3 increased so much from IA2 in Europe because it moved from a March/April release date to the much bigger month of July where it faced no competition untill Up started it's slow roll out at the end of July (and a lot of European markets didn't even get Up until Sep/Oct).M3 on the other hand is moving from a big holiday Dec release for M2 into June. After it starts rolling out on 6 June it faces - the European Championships from 8 June - 1 July, IA4 starting from the 27 June, the Olympics from 27 July - 12 August and Brave from 1 August. In the UK and Germany M3 isn't even opening till Oct and while it might do OK there it won't manage any IA3 type rises or holds.All said and done M3 will probably do well just to stay flat across Europe this year.And yes - first! (of probably not very many) posts! Whoo-hoo! Welcome to the forum!You are right the problems with the sheduling of the releases due to the European Soccer Chamionship will work against it. From the big European countries only France and Russia will face it head on.Perhaps they think it as contrerpograming (wife takes kids to the movies while the husband watches TV)I myself predict something like $500m for M3 OS and produced the list primarily to show which countries will be the highest earners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
udolpho Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Welcome to the forum!You are right the problems with the sheduling of the releases due to the European Soccer Chamionship will work against it. From the big European countries only France and Russia will face it head on.Perhaps they think it as contrerpograming (wife takes kids to the movies while the husband watches TV)I myself predict something like $500m for M3 OS and produced the list primarily to show which countries will be the highest earners.To be fair to the schedulers theres nowhere M3 could go. IA4 has got the post European Championship / pre Olympics slot - Brave has got the post Olympics one. Both those will be fine. But M3 has a real battle on its hands - wouldn't surprise me if it dropped from M2 (well it'd surprise me a bit but not much ) . But if any animated film underperforms this year it'll be this one - maybe 500 WW - is that too low?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 To be fair to the schedulers theres nowhere M3 could go. IA4 has got the post European Championship / pre Olympics slot - Brave has got the post Olympics one. Both those will be fine. But M3 has a real battle on its hands - wouldn't surprise me if it dropped from M2 (well it'd surprise me a bit but not much ) . But if any animated film underperforms this year it'll be this one - maybe 500 WW - is that too low??yes -it is not Happy Feet 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Madagascar 3 opens here on July 26. It will be huge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 525m OS is what a predicted for the game I think. Too much animation this summer. They will hurt each other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
