4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[grim22]

12 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I think looking at one day makes the comps wonky. For eg on Tuesday RO dropped 30%! cause Sun, Mon were the 2 bigger days out of Sun,Mon,Tue. For TLJ Mon, Tue are the bigger 2 days. So I wouldn't just focus on the CD difference of 6%.

 

It's good to low-ball so that one doesn't feel disappointed but TA's 623 is not a realistic target IMO - shouldn't go below 640 in the end. 640-670 (655 middle) seems legit.

I think one way to look at it can be past OW. In the 8 days after OW, Rogue One had made approx 164M, TLJ will have made approx 175M. That's about a 7% difference. Post Wednesday we should have a much clearer picture since calendar configurations and cheap Tuesdays etc will have worked themselves out.

[mikee11]

rob cain vindicated,everyone else btfo

[a2k]

30 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Wait, wait and wait. Are you guys saying there's a chance TLJ misses a 3x multiplier? That would be atrocious.

 

I'm curious about what that means for Episode IX. 

2.90-3.05x gives 638-671. So could go below 3x. At least 3.1x (680+) looks dead.

 

To be fair,  after a movie does 3.77x the sequel doing 2.9x+ is very much acceptable. But in those cases the sequel has a bigger OW or comes very close. Eg:

GOTG1 94/3.51x, GOTG2 146.5/2.66x [insane bump in ow]

KINGS1 36/3.55x, KINGS2 39/2.56x [here the ow increases by a smaller %, so 2.7x would have been acceptable instead of 2.55x+]

SW7 249/3.77x, SW8 220/2.95-3.0x [drop in legs is ok, but it follows a 12% drop in ow]

 

edit: RISE, DAWN, WAR => 3.23x (54.8), 2.87x (72.6), 2.60x (56.3 - case somewhat like SW8 imo .... ok drop in legs but with a smaller ow. in this case the ow was too small)

Edited December 26, 2017 by a2knet

[SWXII]

Do they really preach about "secondary smoke" in The Darkest Hour? See, this is why fewer and fewer tickets get sold at the cinema. Stop the out of context social engineering already. Just stop.

[Premium George]

When will we have actuals for 3 day w/e?

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

I think one way to look at it can be past OW. In the 8 days after OW, Rogue One had made approx 164M, TLJ will have made approx 175M. That's about a 7% difference. Post Wednesday we should have a much clearer picture since calendar configurations and cheap Tuesdays etc will have worked themselves out.

 

Exactly right. We can hope that it outgrosses Rogue One by 20% rest of the way, but that is just hope. The data itself suggests reaching JW’s total will be extremely difficult. Not impossible but still a long way from locked. 

Edited December 26, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[Brainbug]

Jumanji is just killing it xD. I thought the trailers were kinda mediocre, but this performance thus far is stunning lol.-

 

Btw, im alittle drunk lol but i wil ssay thzat TLJ will m,aekoe more than 1M Tusday. Im sure of that. Say what you wan about WOM, 1M is achievable. Fight me°!

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Jumanji should look like:

Tue: $19m (+0%)

Wed: $16m (-15%)
Thu: $14,5m (-10%)
Fri: $16m (+10%)
Sat: $16m (+/-0%)
Sun: $10,5m (-35%)
Mon: $12m (+15%)

$176m on Jan 1st.

 

tue could be +5% and wed drop could be 20-25% imo. but yeah, that looks legit. amazing that it has a shot at 175+ before within the holiday period. would have thought that to be a tough final dom target!

[SWXII]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Jumanji is just killing it xD. I thought the trailers were kinda mediocre, but this performance thus far is stunning lol.-

 

Btw, im alittle drunk lol but i wil ssay thzat TLJ will m,aekoe more than 1M Tusday. Im sure of that. Say what you wan about WOM, 1M is achievable. Fight me°!

What currency are you using?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, SWXII said:

What currency are you using?

 

Bloutarks haha. Wonder ofg you know where that is coming from

[Blaze Heatnix]

Any idea about TLJ's budget? I'm curious about it. They probably spent a ton of oney for promotion too. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Blaze Heatnix said:

Any idea about TLJ's budget? I'm curious about it. They probably spent a ton of oney for promotion too. 

Budget	$200 million

 

Wikipudia says 200M lol but it will be much more, like read that:

 

The estimated gross worldwide for the film to break even is around $800 million

 

Marketing beduget is large i thunk.

[Hades]

WB should  move Wonder Woman 2 back to December 2019. Co -existence is possible .Not much to fear now. Episode 9 will do Rogue one numbers or lower. 

[Johnny Tran]

22 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

How come? I mean I think the range is $30M to $35M, but I don't think $32M would be particularly surprising. Good, and solid, yes. Surprising? Not really.

Because the WOM isn't too great and we are seeing that with all the recent data. 

[Hades]

Also great numbers for Jumanji. I'm  happy for SONY . If they have a couple more breakouts like this, Iger and the lazy  clowns at Disney will start knocking on their door to buy them. Things can change very quickly in the movie world 

[Taruseth]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Budget	$200 million

 

Wikipudia says 200M lol but it will be much more, like read that:

 

The estimated gross worldwide for the film to break even is around $800 million

 

Marketing beduget is large i thunk.

That would be a lot, especially considering the fact that JL's one is as most say 100-200 Mio below that.

And I doubt TLJ was that much more exspensive, I actually saw more marketing for JL compared to TLJ.

[Taruseth]

7 minutes ago, Hades said:

WB should  move Wonder Woman 2 back to December 2019. Co -existence is possible .Not much to fear now. Episode 9 will do Rogue one numbers or lower. 

I think the December slot non the less is more crowded.

In November it plays against James Bond (I think 200 Mio $ at best) and in December it would have IX (500+ Mio $) and a lot of Holiday releases. So It would drop showtimes faster.

 

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, Hades said:

WB should  move Wonder Woman 2 back to December 2019. Co -existence is possible .Not much to fear now. Episode 9 will do Rogue one numbers or lower. 

It’s following typical SW saga patterns. IX should be locked for $600M. It’ll probably have a small increase. However studios know they can have films against it know.

[a2k]

If SW8 does 650 odd or less than what would that change about JW2/Avatar2's expectations?

 

Thing is that even assuming a big drop in admissions, A2 will have 11 years of inflation. So the drop in BO may not be that big compared to A1's unadjusted. SW8 like drop in bo would give 525 down from 760. But that would mean a much bigger drop in admissions.

 

---

 

Spin-offs usually suck up some goodwill. Even though RO was well received, do you think if SW8 was the first SW movie after SW7 it would have done bigger...even in the ow? I think so.

 

Avatar2's world will at least will be 'fresh' in that regard. Hoping that's the case with JW:FK too.

[EpicBoom23]

A small example about Jumanji, my GF's family watches a new movie every year after Christmass, and this year they chose Jumanji and that's 9 tickets! And the reason why not Star Wars is simple, she have seen LJ with me and didn't like it, well except Porgs

Edited December 26, 2017 by EpicBoom23