4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[MovieMan89]

Put in other terms, if it gets a 3x multi in December, as a summer release we could have expected a 2-2.3x multi. Would anyone be defending that, regardless of OW size? 

[DAR]

Just now, BXT said:

 

They paid $4 billion for the franchise. Each movie also has a negative cost of $450-500 million. Things aren't bad but Disney has to be careful how they proceed with the SW franchise. What worked for Marvel may not work here in this case.

They also have WW gross, merchandising oh and two theme parks with dedicated SW lands not to mention a hotel.  It's more than going to work out

[Brainbug]

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   Lor San Tele
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   Porthos
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   CoolioD1
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   Brainbug
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[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I can't say for sure that you were one of the ones saying that it was virtually impossible for it to only get a 3x in December last weekend, but plenty of people were. Hell, even I was. The fact that now that's being made to not sound like a big deal because of the OW size is telling.

If you think there is no practical difference between a 155 OW and a 220 OW, I don't know what to tell you.

 

(FTR, I was one of the ones poo-pooing the idea of an iron clad 'law' of multipliers, especially in the holidays. I think the best way to describe my position is 'multiplier agnostic', especially as the initial variable rises and rises)

[aabattery]

It's worth noting that the December OW record before TFA came out was ~85M. These December megaopeners are pretty much uncharted territory.

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Jurassic World and Avengers both had incredible WOM with the general audience. Both opened over $200m and “struggled” to reach a 3.0 multiplier. Last Jedi is doing very well.

 

Force Awakens was the biggest ticket seller since Titanic. It’s a freak level event and should not be held against Last Jedi’s performance. 

I'm not holding TFA against TLJ's performance. A 3.4x multi off a 220 OW vs a 3.8x off a 250 OW is a massive difference, yet I wouldn't have said it necessarily indicated poor WOM for TLJ. Anything below 3.1x in December does. There is no spin. With the sole exception of it maybe having obliterated the OW record and pulling something like 275+, but that wasn't the case either. 

Edited December 24, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Put in other terms, if it gets a 3x multi in December, as a summer release we could have expected a 2-2.3x multi. Would anyone be defending that, regardless of OW size? 

See, I'm of the opinion that it would have had a larger OW with perhaps a slightly less overall gross depending on when it's released in the calendar. Say 75% to 80% of maximum potential (Summer) versus 90% of maximum potential (holidays).

 

What the holidays do is allow a film to more easily reach its maximum theoretical potential.  More easily is the key word though, because I don't think where you plopped Wonder Woman in the calendar, it wouldn't have done much more than it did.  Maybe 440 instead of 412.5.

 

I call my stance "multiplier agnostic" and I stand by it.

 

But if it did 250/600 (2.4x) you damn well better believe I'd defend that run.

[RandomCat]

4 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

It's worth noting that the December OW record before TFA came out was ~85M. These December megaopeners are pretty much uncharted territory.

but, if this only does 3x, Disney will fire Kennedy, and dissolve LFL.

[a2k]

Hope Deadline is not giving up on early numbers. 

[MovieMan89]

So we could very conceivably end up with a 50% RT audience score, a prequel level IMDB score, and a 3x multi in December and people would still argue the WOM wasn't poor?

 

Lord have mercy. 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm not holding TFA against TLJ's performance. A 3.4x multi off a 220 OW vs a 3.8x off a 250 OW is a massive difference, yet I wouldn't have said it necessarily indicated poor WOM for TLJ. Anything below 3.1x in December does. There is no spin. With the sole exception of it maybe having obliterated the OW record and pulling something like 275+, but that wasn't the case either. 

 

3.1 is a similar multiplier drop (17-18%) as TDKR vs. TDK. Ultron’s multiplier dropped 20% from TA1. It’s not a big deal. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

3.1 is a similar multiplier drop (17-18%) as TDKR vs. TDK. Ultron’s multiplier dropped 20% from TA1. It’s not a big deal. 

I've never heard anyone argue Ultron had good WOM. Not one person. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm not holding TFA against TLJ's performance. A 3.4x multi off a 220 OW vs a 3.8x off a 250 OW is a massive difference, yet I wouldn't have said it necessarily indicated poor WOM for TLJ. Anything below 3.1x in December does. There is no spin. With the sole exception of it maybe having obliterated the OW record and pulling something like 275+, but that wasn't the case either. 

And I think that any time a film does more than 400m DOM it is a success, no matter how it did it.  If TLJ does more than 600m DOM it is a smashing success, no matter how it did it.

 

But if you want to set the bar of 'decent' WOM at 682, you might want to hold off on saying it won't reach it.  Because a R1 run for TLJ (3.48x) brings it at nearly 750.

[B D Joe]

If it were up to me, there would not be a Star Wars movie every year.

[RandomCat]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

So we could very conceivably end up with a 50% RT audience score, a prequel level IMDB score, and a 3x multi in December and people would still argue the WOM wasn't poor?

 

Lord have mercy. 

I mean, we know that RT had tampering, IMDB is pretty shit in general, and we have little idea what a mega release in December should look like with it's multi. We have other sources that seem to show WOM as not being Poor.

[Brainbug]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

So we could very conceivably end up with a 50% RT audience score, a prequel level IMDB score, and a 3x multi in December and people would still argue the WOM wasn't poor?

 

Lord have mercy. 

 

The RT audience score and the ImdB rating are useless. The debate around these Internet ratings is tiring and should just die. And btw, we're 8 days into TLJ's run. Nobody can predict how well it will do in the next 2 weeks and beyond that. I think you just like to hyperbole.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

So we could very conceivably end up with a 50% RT audience score, a prequel level IMDB score, and a 3x multi in December and people would still argue the WOM wasn't poor?

 

Lord have mercy. 

You realize that only exactly one of those stats you cited has any scientific rigor or objective basis attached to it, right?

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, ReyReyBattery said:

It's worth noting that the December OW record before TFA came out was ~85M. These December megaopeners are pretty much uncharted territory.

That is not a bad point, december giant legs were in part thought because of smaller OW that they would have in the summer, and that does not apply with those Star Wars release.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Porthos said:

And I think that any time a film does more than 400m DOM it is a success, no matter how it did it.  If TLJ does more than 600m DOM it is a smashing success, no matter how it did it.

 

But if you want to set the bar of 'decent' WOM at 682, you might want to hold off on saying it won't reach it.  Because a R1 run for TLJ (3.48x) brings it at nearly 750.

Who on earth is arguing it's not going to be hugely successful and make bucketloads for Disney? I'm talking about the reception and the potential effect going forward. 

 

And I'm not saying a 3x multi is set in stone now, I'm saying it's possible and hypothetically what that would mean about the WOM if it happens. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I've never heard anyone argue Ultron had good WOM. Not one person. 

 

I would not argue it had poor WOM. Obviously did not have great WOM. But you need insane WOM to do something like Spidey 2 vs. Spidey 1. The odds of that happening are very low, no matter which franchise.