Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[cannastop]

Just now, hw64 said:

Has anyone made an Avatar 1 and 2 over Episode VII, VIII and IX club yet?

Do you mean cumulatively? That might actually be an interesting club, come to think of it.

[Noodlebug]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

Has anyone made an Avatar 1 and 2 over Episode VII, VIII and IX club yet?

Is that Avatar 1 and 2 over the sequel trilogy combined? If so, then A2 would have to make over a billion domestically to win. Unless you're talking about OS, then disregard what I said.

Edited December 27, 2017 by Noodlebug

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

Has anyone made an Avatar 1 and 2 over Episode VII, VIII and IX club yet?

A1 to 5 over all star wars movies

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

A movie that opened with 220 million and that will have holidays and the beginning of the next year, should not get anything under a 3x multiplier imo. 

Now you see, I'm not THAT sure we SHOULD think that.  The higher the OW the less the multiplier we should expect, no matter what the season.  

 

Take Return of the King. It had a five day opening bow, so that messes with things more than a little bit.  But if we take its 5day as an indication of its OW it got a 3.03x multiplier.  Adj it comes out to around a 183m 5day OW (Dec 17 - Dec 21).  Final total is around 549.5 adj.

 

If people squawk at that, whatever.  Bump up the multi slightly, I don't care.  Fact is it made "only" 253m after its opening weekend (366m adj).

 

This is one of THE most beloved epics of all freaking time.  And, yes, I remember people being disappointed with its holiday run as well at the time.  

 

Now I already hear the complaints about five day versus three day.  Well, I heard them last year too and I still don't buy the counter arguments. 

 

In a way, it shows how utterly bonkers TFA really was that it was burning demand all the way up to Christmas Fucking Day.

 

And this is why I think it is more than a little ridiculous to look at a film that opens at 155 OW (R1) and one that opens at 220 OW (TLJ) and expect them to get the same multiplier.  We wouldn't in the summer time, so why should we in the holiday season?

 

None of this is to say that TLJ shouldn't have gotten a 3x.  It probably should.  I'm just talking purely about how a very large OW should temper expectations for the multiplier, unless there is extreme circumstances.

 

====

 

One thing that these current blockbusters in the winter time MIGHT be doing is giving us actual data sets for films that earn more than 150m OW during this holiday season.  Before we had imperfect comparisons with things like 5 days and 3 days and three plus hour films. And so on and so on and so on.  There was plenty of theorycrafting going on, is more or less what I am saying.

 

Well actual hard data trumps theorycrafting.  And the more data we get the better we should be able to predict the future blockbusters that are coming to the holiday frame.

 

Like say those Avatar films people keep wondering about.

Edited December 27, 2017 by Porthos

[hw64]

Just now, cannastop said:

Do you mean cumulatively? That might actually be an interesting club, come to think of it.

Just now, Noodlebug said:

Is that Avatar 1 and 2 over the sequel trilogy combined?

Yes.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Nothing! USA & Canada is only fun because you guys care about it. I'm more interested about the world wide total which includes domestic if you didn't know.

 

The number I'm interested in is $1.39b world wide, which is HALF of Avatar.

 

It won't get there.

It's interesting, back in early 2016, some SW fans on youtube actually thought that since TFA couldn't quite beat Avatar,  EP8 definitely will. How time has changed.

[Mojoguy]

$500k down from RTH's estimates. Welp, time to pack it up. TLJ is clearly a flop.

It not the number itself, just that it keeps coming under estimates. People can't help but feel disappointed.

We all know there would be cheering on the streets by some people if it had come in over estimates.

[NoLegMan]

  I wouldn't even say IW will pass Avatar.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

Yes.

Hmm. Let's assume that Last Jedi and IX both make $1.4B WW. That means a cumulative gross of $4.868B for VII, VIII and IX.

 

First Avatar made $2.788 WW, so you're betting on Avatar 2 making more than $2.08B, which I guess might be possible, depending on the China gross.

[aabattery]

I would be genuinely shocked if IW passed Avatar. Almost 0% chance that happens, IMO.

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

It won't get there.

It's interesting, back in early 2016, some SW fans on youtube actually thought that since TFA couldn't quite beat Avatar,  EP8 definitely will. How time has changed.

Those Star Wars fans knew nothing about box office.

Edited December 27, 2017 by cannastop

[IronJimbo]

Just now, NoLegMan said:

  I wouldn't even say IW will pass Avatar.

Somewhere between TFA and JW.. I've got a horrible feeling that this one might do well.

[NoLegMan]

Just now, ReyReyBattery said:

I would be genuinely shocked if IW passed Avatar. Almost 0% chance that happens, IMO.

I agree

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Hmm. Let's assume that Last Jedi and IX both make $1.4B WW. That means a cumulative gross of $4.868B for VII, VIII and IX.

 

First Avatar made $2.788 WW, so you're betting on Avatar 2 making more than $2.08B, which I guess might be possible, depending on the China gross.

Hahahagahaga

 

2.08b might be possible? You're jokinh right...

[FantasticBeasts]

Honestly that would be a lot of fun. Someone open this club;

Avatar 1 & 2 OVER the sequel trilogy COMBINED.

Assuming that Episode IX does about the same numbers, Avatar 2 would need about 2b WW to do so. Plausible, to say the least If you ask me.

[NoLegMan]

I wouldn't be shocked if it made 2B, just it won't hit Avatar.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

A1 to 5 over all star wars movies

I am having some doubt about Avatar 3 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Honestly that would be a lot of fun. Someone open this club;

Avatar 1 & 2 OVER the sequel trilogy COMBINED.

Assuming that Episode IX does about the same numbers, Avatar 2 would need about 2b WW to do so. Plausible, to say the least If you ask me.

A1&A2 over sws7,8,9 is locked for worldwide.

[NoLegMan]

if Avatar 2 makes 1.3B it's a flop /s

[Lordmandeep]

I think if Infinity Wars beats Ultron it would be a smashing success imo for the MCU.