Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[That One Girl]

On 12/31/2017 at 4:20 PM, That One Guy said:

Backseat and First Man will get BP noms.  Maybe Widows too.

 

all I’m saying for now.  gotta play it safe

 

at the time I thought these were the three that were pretty safely locked.  now all 3 of these have a very real chance at not getting nommed lol.

Edited December 4, 2018 by That One Guy

[The Panda]

On 12/31/2017 at 2:35 PM, PANDA said:

Going to set my goal for four of the BP noms to be right.  I’ll maybe do a full out early prediction

 

Best Picture 2018

Backseat

Beautiful Boy

The Bell Jar

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary, Queen of Scots

Old Man and the Gun

Roma

Sidney Hall

Widows

 

Director: Josie Rourke, Mary, Queen of Scots

BA: Christian Bale, Backseat

BAs: Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

BSA: Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

BSAs: Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

AS: Mary, Queen of Scots

OS: Backseat

Looks like I’ll get two for sure (Beale Street and Roma)

 

Would need 2 of Vice, Widows or First Man to get four.  Like always, laughable year in advance predictions

 

On 12/31/2017 at 4:36 PM, PANDA said:

You expect the Oscars to finally go mainstream and nominate a 300m+ Blockbuster on the levels of Black Panther???

Lololol at the fact they’re actually (probably, maybe?) going to nominate BP

 

On 12/31/2017 at 3:42 PM, PANDA said:

Watch, now Backseat, Widows, First Man and Mary, Queen of Scots are all going to disappoint and something like Ready Player One gets a BO nod.

Good call, just replace RPO with Black Panther

[The Panda]

On 1/1/2018 at 10:14 PM, PANDA said:

People seem to be ignoring Roma.

 

Cuaron's bound to get attention after Gravity, although it is his passion project (and 99% sure it's a spanish-language film) and passion projects seem to fair poorly with the academy, so maybe not.

 

Although he also finished production in March this year and it's still in post, which likely indicates there's some effects work to be done?  All he'll say is something big is in store but he doesn't want people to go in with expectations on what it is.

 

http://www.indiewire.com/2017/10/alfonso-cuaron-shape-of-water-review-roma-production-release-1201887727/

Great call, wow go me

[The Panda]

On 2/4/2018 at 8:55 AM, WrathOfHan said:

Let's not forget Disney has a much bigger tech player with Nutcracker. Idk how much of a priority BP will be for them, especially if Mary Poppins is a tech contender too.

My Favourite retrospective post from the first few pages.

[Valonqar]

Afi movies of the year
blackkklansman
black panther
eighth grade
if beale street could talk
the favourite
first reformed
green book
mary poppins returns
a quiet place
a star is born

 

She's coming! 

[CoolioD1]

i wanna get my hopes up for a surprise eighth grade best picture nomination but i can just imagine old man academy member scowling at the scenes where they're talking about snapchat or rick and morty. but if it's done this well so far...

Edited December 4, 2018 by CoolioD1

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i wanna get my hopes up for a surprise eighth grade best picture nomination but i can just imagine old man academy member scowling at the scene where they're talking about snapchat or rick and morty. but if it's done this well so far...

Apparently 1/3 of the members are newer members, that could be enough to get it in

Edited December 4, 2018 by PANDA

[The Panda]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Afi movies of the year
blackkklansman
black panther
eighth grade
if beale street could talk
the favourite
first reformed
green book
mary poppins returns
a quiet place
a star is born

 

She's coming! 

Take out A Quiet Place and put in Roma and there’s the top 10 contenders for BP (Roma wasn’t eligible)

 

I’d say Eighth Grade, First Reformed, Poppins and BlacKkKlansman will fight for the last 2-3 spots, the rest should be solid bets (unless Green Book can crash and burn).

[CoolioD1]

i kinda feel first reformed is the fringe A24 contender that's more in their wheelhouse. i could see one or the other popping up. a problem with eighth grade is that the critics awards keep passing it on to the "best first film" and "best breakthrough performer" awards. actual best director/best actress awards would help it more.

Edited December 4, 2018 by CoolioD1

[Cmasterclay]

Vice and First Man are usually the AFI's jam (Big Short won here I think?) so those two missing are another indicator that they are french fuckin toast. One of Eight Grade or First Reformed is getting nominated. I don't think it's gonna be both, but at this point I see at least one of them. Earlier in the season I heard A Quiet Place had some very legitimate buzz and was playing super well with alot of people and tbh I was all haha just like Wonder Woman but now I'm starting to think it might sneak in.

 

New membership makes things weird - movies like Eight Grade or A Quiet Place (or even Black Panther, frankly) that would have had no chance five years ago have a real chance, whereas previously locked movies like First Man and maybe even Green Book are much weaker than they would have been in the past.

[The Panda]

6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i kinda feel first reformed is the fringe A24 contender that's more in their wheelhouse. i could see one or the other popping up. a problem with eighth grade is that the critics awards keep passing it on to the "best first film" and "best breakthrough performer" awards. actual best director/best actress awards would help it more.

To be fair, Get Out got a lot of those too.  My biggest skepticism about Eighth Grade though is I reckon it’ll need to show up in at least 1 of:

Director

Actress 

Supporting Actor

 

to make it in.

 

None of those are impossible (although I’d say Actress is a little too packed for Fisher to make it), but I wouldn’t predict any of them yet.

[Ethan Hunt]

15 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i wanna get my hopes up for a surprise eighth grade best picture nomination but i can just imagine old man academy member scowling at the scenes where they're talking about snapchat or rick and morty. but if it's done this well so far...

this is a weirdly bad take from you coolio

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

this is a weirdly bad take from you coolio

you've literally never had anything to contribute to any conversation. so many of your posts are just "this is a bad take". thanks. the "not cool" reaction was enough, i got the message from that. can you fuck off?

[filmlover]

Rooting for Eighth Grade becoming a surprise contender from the summer ala Beasts of the Southern Wild.

 

First Man and Widows are dead at this point. Not looking good for Vice either.

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Vice and First Man are usually the AFI's jam (Big Short won here I think?) so those two missing are another indicator that they are french fuckin toast. One of Eight Grade or First Reformed is getting nominated. I don't think it's gonna be both, but at this point I see at least one of them. Earlier in the season I heard A Quiet Place had some very legitimate buzz and was playing super well with alot of people and tbh I was all haha just like Wonder Woman but now I'm starting to think it might sneak in.

 

New membership makes things weird - movies like Eight Grade or A Quiet Place (or even Black Panther, frankly) that would have had no chance five years ago have a real chance, whereas previously locked movies like First Man and maybe even Green Book are much weaker than they would have been in the past.

A Green Book snub would give me life, but not likely given it’s shown up everywhere

 

Im also pretty happy about the First Man snub.  

 

Wish Vice would get more recognition because the more criticism Cheney can get the better.

 

The more “typical Oscar bait” (ie by the numbers Biopics, white savior race relations movies, etc) that end up failing, the more studios will start pushing to make more fresh and innovative stuff like Eighth Grade, Beale Street, A Quiet Place and such.

[filmlover]

I think what’s helping the more commercial fare this year is that the stuff that was expected to be a major player like First Man either underperformed at the box office or didn’t live up to past movies from the filmmakers (or a combination of the two). This might end up being the most commercial Best Picture lineup since 2013 which had 4 $100M+ nominees from major studios among the nominees.

[filmlover]

Also we recently had a discussion about the lack of Oscar host announcement this year but this pretty much more or less confirms it: it’s become the gig nobody wants.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/why-oscar-host-is-worst-job-town-1165880

[Rorschach]

Quote

BlackKklansman (so glad this got in there)
Black Panther (Eh. Not the best superhero movie of the year and probably won't be in my Top 25 by the year's end but I'm glad people are loving it. Should easily get a BP nom at this point)
Eighth Grade (Gucci)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Haven't seen it yet)
The Favourite (Watched The Lobster a few days ago. Really, really looking forward to seeing this)
First Reformed (Still need to see this)
Green Book (*shrug)
Mary Poppins Returns (Looking forward to this)
A Quiet Place (So happy for Krasinski and Blunt this year)
A Star Is Born (Gaga for the win!)

5/10 nominees I've seen already. That's better than the previous years for me.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Rorschach

[Eric Prime]

17 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Vice and First Man are usually the AFI's jam (Big Short won here I think?) so those two missing are another indicator that they are french fuckin toast.

To be fair for Vice's sake, late-breaking releases have missed AFI in the past. The Revenant and Hidden Figures didn't make the list IIRC.

 

Although the more I think about it, I feel like AFI's list seems about right for our BP line-up. Take out First Reformed and Quiet Place, add in Roma, that's our category.

[filmlover]

I’m actually starting to think Vice is gonna end up with the same number of nominations as 1995’s Nixon (4, including Bale and Adams, but no Picture nom or any wins).