WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

[WrathOfHan]

 

First predictions incoming shortly. Be ready for some hot takes.

[WrathOfHan]

January 5

 

Insidious: The Last Key: The Insidious franchise has undoubtedly lost most of its luster as newer, hotter horror franchises have released, and I don’t think anyone was really clamoring for a fourth installment. However, January horror films always pull in solid numbers, especially on their OW. This year, we had Split at 40M (which Insidious obviously won’t hit) and The Bye Bye Man with 13.5M. Last year, it was The Forest with 12.7M and The Boy with 10.8M. 2015 probably provides the best comparison with Woman in Black 2, which made 15M on the same weekend Insidious is opening. Insidious undoubtedly has more demand than that did, because who was really asking for a sequel to WIB? 15M is a good starting point, and legs should be decent with MLK the following weekend. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

I had something written for Molly's Game, but it's out of date. Stay tuned to whatever daily thread for a forecast  

[Eric Duncan]

Yay. Love seeing your predictions. (Even when what you write is wack. )

[That One Girl]

The Controversy Awakens

[WrathOfHan]

January 12

 

The Commuter: Here’s a movie whose trailer I am sick of getting! The teaser set up a somewhat intriguing premise, but the second trailer killed basically any interest I had in the movie. I’ve gotten this trailer 9 times in theaters (most recently at TLJ in IMAX) and never heard an unanimously good audience response. Half of the time, the audience laughs at the trailer! The trailer released a week ago hasn’t even registered on YouTube with only 51k views on Lionsgate’s channel at the time of this writing, but the first two trailers put up ok numbers. The biggest issue this movie faces is competition. Not only will The Post be sucking up much of the market, but Proud Mary is also coming out. As you’ll read further down in this post, you’ll see I’m not hot on its chances either, but both movies have little buzz and will cannibalize each other by targeting the action crowd. Even with “Select IMAX Theaters,” this will be lucky to cross 10M for the 3 day. That said, reviews are decent, so hitting a 3.5x is not off the table if WOM follows suit. 8/10/26 (3.25x from 3 day/2.6x from 4 day)

 

Paddington 2: I can’t quite put my finger on how well Paddington will fare for his sequel. The first has gained an audience through Netflix, and it’s the only family option of January and for four weeks until Peter Rabbit. Additionally, the film is also boasting a legendary 100% on Rotten Tomatoes right now, and WB has been pushing ads quite a bit lately. However, this Christmas offered families a lot of options to choose from: Star Wars, Jumanji, The Greatest Showman, and Ferdinand, all of which will still be going strong into next weekend. Are families going to be too drained from the holidays to spend more on a trip to the theater so soon? This should stay close to the first’s gross of 76.3M, but the range is pretty wide between 65-90M. I’ll be optimistic and say it outgrosses the first. 20/24/80 (4x from 3 day/3.33x from 4 day)

 

The Post: This has breakout hit written all over it. In addition to being a Best Picture contender, the movie is directed by Steven Spielberg, stars Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep, and is culturally relevant right now amidst all the politics going on in Washington. It opened in 9 theaters over the holidays to strong results, and WOM is already building. There really isn’t much going against The Post; it’s just a matter of how high it can go. In my opinion, this is going to go very, VERY high. The only competition in January is 12 Strong (which I have my reservations on), and February is looking light on competition for the older demographic as well. The Post is going to dominate January and break out big time. 40/48/200 (5x from 3 day/4.17x from 4 day)

 

Proud Mary: As I touched upon earlier, I don’t think this will breakout. Sony has done absolutely no marketing since dropping the first trailer back in July, which has really squashed a lot of my faith in the movie. Another blow this movie faces is that no previews are being held next Thursday, which is a bad sign for any movie. The main saving grace Proud Mary has is that it appeals to the female and African-American demographics, but I don’t see this making much more than recent ScreenGem numbers. 12/14.5/32 (2.67x from 3 day/2.21x from 4 day)

[That One Girl]

That Commuter prediction is wack

[YM!]

I missed this. I’m hyped for your predictions.

[YM!]

Also $200M for The Post. Han you’re a bloody madman.

[filmlover]

I'm ready for the year's worth of laughs.

 

[WrathOfHan]

January 19

12 Strong: This movie has a wide range where it could fall into: it could make as little as Only the Brave or more than Deepwater Horizon. On the one hand, trailer views are pretty good for this movie: the first trailer from October has 4.6M views while the second from last month has 1.7M views. The second trailer is ahead of Deepwater Horizon’s second trailer (1.4M views) after a month, so that is a good sign for buzz. However, the crew behind this movie raises some red flags. This is the director’s first movie, and the screenwriters both have polarizing track records. This is Ted Tally’s first movie since Red Dragon in 2002, and outside of that and Silence of the Lambs, he’s only written critically panned films. Peter Craig has a better slate having cowritten The Town, both Mockingjay films (those can be good or bad depending how you view it), and Blood Father. EC recently said he expects the movie to bomb, so I’ll take his word on it. 10/30 (3x)

 

Den of Thieves: Flop. NEXT?  

 

Being serious for a moment, Den of Thieves has many things going against it. For starters, buzz is low, and the movie looks bad. This is another directorial debut, although this time it’s from the screenwriter of LONDON HAS FALLEN. WOW! It’s also aiming for the same demographics 12 Strong is, which has much more awareness. January needs a good flop, and Den of Thieves will fit that bill. 5/10 (2x)

 

Forever My Girl: I don’t know if this is even going wide given Roadside’s history. I got the trailer before Wonder, and it looks like a run of the mill movie you’d find on Lifetime or Hallmark. This won’t do well. 3/6 (2x)

Edited January 3, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Rorschach]

I have a feeling 12 Strong could make a lot more than what you predicted. Closer to 13 Hours' $52 million than $30 million IMO.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Rorschach

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Rorschach said:

I have a feeling 12 Strong could make a lot more than what you predicted. Closer to 13 Hour's $52 million than $30 million IMO.

I actually had it at 45M before EC chimed in about it.

[DAJK]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I actually had it at 45M before EC chimed in about it.

What did EC say other than he thinks it'll bomb? Any reason or just gut feeling?

Edited January 3, 2018 by DAJK

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

What did EC say other than he thinks it'll bomb? Any reason or just gut feeling?

He didn't say anything else, but it's easy to believe it's bad with the stuff I posted in my predictions.

[filmlover]

Han, when that The Post $200M prediction doesn't come true (it's not even guaranteed to make $100M), the mods have every right to ban you for a month for foolish predicting.

[WrathOfHan]

One more for the night:

 

January 26

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: This movie is coming a year and a half too late. Obviously, Dylan O’Brien’s injuries affected the release date, but too much time has passed. The most recent trailer from two weeks ago only has 3.3M views, which isn’t particularly strong for a franchise movie. This will appeal to fans of the series only and won’t expand much if at all. 25/65 (2.6x)

[a2k]

Will echo the sentiment that 200m or even 150m is too high for The Post.

 

Looking at some movies with similarity in one or more of setting, theme, cast, genre, director, demographics: Spotlight 45m, Bridge of Spies did 72m, Sully did 125m, Wonder is on track for 135m, Hidden Figures did 170m, Lincoln did 180m.

 

I feel Streep and female-centric plot will help and think a fun target is Spotlight + BoS = 45 + 72 = 117m or say 120m.

Find it tough to go higher than 30 ow / 4x / 120m dom.

[Maxmoser3]

The $200 million number for The Post is amazing. But I think we”re all riding off Hidden Figures(and it did have some hidden figures as we had seen last year), but I have a feeling The Post will at best make between $70-$80 million domestic. 

 

Hanks can pull a $100 million flick, and so can Spielberg and Streep. But I haven’t heard buzz about The Post and nothing else. 

[Avatree]

Sorry to sound like a sour grape but how are these "controversial"? Predicting 26M for Commuter, 40M for Insidious 4, 80M for Paddington 2.... these are all perfectly normal predictions, grow some balls man and go crazy

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Manchester by the Tree

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Tree Billboards said:

Sorry to sound like a sour grape but how are these "controversial"? Predicting 26M for Commuter, 40M for Insidious 4, 80M for Paddington 2.... these are all perfectly normal predictions, grow some balls man and go crazy

 

$200M for The Post isn't crazy enough for ya?