WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

April will change your tunes 

You're predicting $200M+ for A Quiet Place, aren't you?

[Noodlebug]

I can't wait to see IW's numbers.

[Jonwo]

39 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Ready Player One: From a shitty novel comes a new Steven Spielberg movie! Ready Player One is tough to predict. The book is popular among nerd circles, and the premise is easily marketable to general audiences. Additionally, it will be a good choice for families over the holiday. This is really more of a case on how high it can go, because I don’t think Spielberg can make a shitty movie that will collapse with a 2.2x or something. The range is big on this one, and I could see it grossing anywhere from 120M-240M. 50/160 (3.2x)

I think that's a good prediction, I'm thinking $60-75m/$220-240m myself and I think if anyone can elevate the source material, it's Spielberg not to mention it's Warner Bros' first big tentpole of 2018. 

[WrathOfHan]

April 6

Blockers: Coming off the smash hit Ferdinand, John Cena has a lot to live up to! Blockers is performing AWFULLY on YouTube. The three most viewed videos of the trailer only combine to about 1.1M. The trailer looks a bit too tryhard as well, and given the competition it’s facing in April (and this weekend), it’ll be hard to stand out. If reviews are good, this could do over 50-60M, but I’ll remain low for now. 10/25 (2.5x)

 

Chappaquiddick: Entertainment Studios, just stop. This film premiered back at TIFF to mixed reviews and currently sits at 64% on RT. Trailer views are even worse than Blockers as the five most viewed videos barely combine to 600k. It’s hard for audiences to shell out their money for something with meh reviews and not much of a hook; Chappaquiddick will bomb VERY quickly. 3/6 (2x)

 

A Quiet Place: Listen closely to what I am about to predict because Paramount might have cooked up the next big horror movie. A Quiet Place has such a unique concept, and the trailer is incredibly effective. Both times I’ve gotten it in theaters, audiences shut the hell up and pay attention. On YouTube, the trailer is at 5M views on Paramount’s channel after nearly two months, which is fantastic for an original horror movie. I think this will easily open to 30M and could breach 40M as being the first event film in the genre since the fall. However, I’m a bit concerned for its legs. The New Mutants opens the following weekend and will undoubtedly be even bigger than this film. As for Cloverfield two weeks later….. well, let’s just say I don’t think Paramount would put these two so close together if both were good movies. Still, I expect it to co-exist fine with The New Mutants. 35/115 (3.29x)

Edited January 6, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[DAJK]

''WrathofHan's 2018 Box Office predictions based off of trailer views''

[YM!]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

''WrathofHan's 2018 Box Office predictions based off of trailer views''

Mummy over $350M DOM

[filmlover]

Blockers looks really, really bad.

[That One Girl]

Blockers always gets really good reactions when I get a trailer for it

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Blockers always gets really good reactions when I get a trailer for it

I've literally never heard of this movie until now.

[That One Girl]

Just now, cannastop said:

I've literally never heard of this movie until now.

 

It's a comedy about parents who try to cockblock their kids on prom night

[Eric Duncan]

9 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

It's a comedy about parents who try to cockblock their kids on prom night

The poster kills me every time.

 

[filmlover]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

The poster kills me every time.

 

Look at Universal being all edgy with their posters this year between that and the one for Fifty Shades Freed ("Don't miss the climax!").

[That One Girl]

Box office smash.

 

[filmnerdjamie]

On 1/4/2018 at 4:05 PM, WrathOfHan said:

A Wrinkle in Time: CONTROVERSY ALERT! I see all these 150M, 200M, even 250M+ predictions for this movie and go……… WHAT? A Wrinkle in Time has bomb written all over it. First off, the trailers are incredibly unclear as to what the film is about. The first trailer boils down to “Chris Pine is trapped, and only his daughter can save him…. Somehow!”, and the second trailer is even more confusing and practically sidelines Pine. The trailers rely solely on the visuals, which look good but shouldn’t be the main selling point without an easily digestible plot to market. In addition to being confusing, the trailers do not have many views on YouTube. The second trailer only has 2.9M views on Disney’s channel after about a month and a half, and the first isn’t much higher at 4.9M all the way from July. For an “original” Disney movie, this is pretty weak, and the like to dislike ratio is pretty bad for both trailers (82/18 for the second and 88/12 for the first). The main saving grace A Wrinkle in Time has is light competition in the family market. Ready Player One will attract families but is PG-13, and Sherlock Gnomes is a non-factor. Isle of Dogs likely won’t be expanding wide until April, and that appeals more to Wes Anderson’s fanbase than kids. Unless the movie is absolute shit, a 3x should happen. However, when the opening weekend is going to be low, legs can only do so much. 20/65 (3.25x)

I'm intrigued to check it out. But honestly... I wonder if stuff like that Time Magazine cover story will do more harm than good. 

 

I could definitely sense another case of Ghostbusters, i.e. Social Media trying to "publicly shame" the general public into liking a film and they vehemently rejecting it.

[Eric Duncan]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Box office smash.

 

John Cena: The only man who can defy physics. @CJohn

[WrathOfHan]

April 13

The New Mutants: No other movie is daring to face this, and it’s for a good reason. The New Mutants represents a new endeavor in the comic book movie craze: horror. Both genres are coming off record-breaking years, and people want new, unique movies. This fits that bill and is releasing on the perfect date. Friday the 13^th always leads to big grosses for horror movies, but how will it affect a superhero horror movie? I’m betting a lot! It also helps that the rest of April and May look a bit light on competition (though it will drop a bit in its second weekend and May 4). Don’t be surprised if this comes close to Logan. 70/200 (2.86x)

[That One Girl]

It begins.

[HesAPooka]

I like that you make these so far in advance. Right or wrong it's where the fun is.

[FantasticBeasts]

Yeah this topic is so fun.

Sometimes I get a bit jealous and think about doing sth like this but I am kinda terrified at the search that you have to do and since I am not know of being a hard-working person I laugh the next moment I have such a thought..

[MCKillswitch123]

A Quiet Place looks great, but.... sadly, Emily Blunt is box office poison. I love her, she's one of my favorite actresses alive, but dammit she can't open a movie to save her life. Granted, horror sells itself pretty well, but I'd be surprised if this opens and/or performs higher than Don't Breathe.

 

Now give us those Rampage predictions.