WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$200M for The Post isn't crazy enough for ya? 

oh completely, I just think he should stick to those predictions and not just predict everything  if you're gonna name the thread "controversial predictions" at least.

[CJohn]

Commuter is gonna pull 20M over the 4 day weekend.

[marveldcfox]

Commuter and Paddington 2 will be the big non-oscar bait hits of January.

 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Commuter is gonna pull 20M over the 4 day weekend.

If that happens, TLJ is out of the top five that weekend  

[James]

I think a lot of people are underestimating Paddington. The last animation hit was Coco. And while the family market had some strong contenders, I think the strong reception plus the popularity the first movie gained since release should be enough to push it past 100m. Maybe even 150m. 

[WrathOfHan]

34 minutes ago, James said:

I think a lot of people are underestimating Paddington. The last animation hit was Coco. And while the family market had some strong contenders, I think the strong reception plus the popularity the first movie gained since release should be enough to push it past 100m. Maybe even 150m. 

NOPE  

[Jonwo]

Paddington 2 will do well but not $150m well. WB will be happy if it matches the first Paddington, I think $80-90m.

 

The Post won't do $200m but $130-150m wouldn't be too surprising. Ready Player One has more of a shot at $200m than The Post

[WrathOfHan]

February 2

Winchester: The House That Ghosts Built: I think there’s some breakout potential here. The Spierg Brothers are coming off of Jigsaw, which pleased fans of the franchise given how inflated the audience score is (that sounds familiar!). However, they didn’t write the script for Jigsaw like their other films. If this is closer in quality to Predestination or even Daybreakers, this could have a solid run. The trailer has 2.5M views on Lionsgate’s channel, which is decent for an original horror film. It should at least match Rings’ opening on Superbowl weekend and likely leg it out better. 15/45 (3x)

[Avatree]

40 minutes ago, James said:

I think a lot of people are underestimating Paddington. The last animation hit was Coco. And while the family market had some strong contenders, I think the strong reception plus the popularity the first movie gained since release should be enough to push it past 100m. Maybe even 150m. 

- The "family market" still has Jumanji

- the first Paddington had equally strong reception

[WrathOfHan]

February 9

The 15:17 to Paris: Clint Eastwood has been on a nice box office streak with American Sniper and Sully. Prior to those two, he was stuck in a lull where four of his movies made between 32-47M with an average gross of 38.3M. This is going to fall into that range and not the highs hit by Eastwood’s last two. Why? For starters, the trailer picked up ZERO buzz. The trailer on WB’s trailer only has 1.3M views after 8 days, which is way behind their own 12 Strong. Speaking of which, 12 Strong could overshadow this! The Post should still be going strong too. Finally, the movie just doesn’t look that good. Clint cast the real people in here, and it shows because there acting looks stiff as hell. The trailer also isn’t clear on what exactly the movie is about. The real-life aspect isn’t unique because Act of Valor just did it not that long ago, so you have to show off more of the plot. Given this is less than two months away from release, there isn’t much time to change course. This is bound to get lost in the shuffle. 10/30 (3x)

 

Fifty Shades Freed: Universal is banking on people not to miss the climax! I don’t think there’s a whole lot to say about this one. Darker dropped about a third from the first, but the drop here won’t be anywhere as severe. I don’t it losing that much of the audience, and of course, it has the CLIMAX aspect to push in the marketing. There’s enough interest to get it to 100M IMO. 40/100 (2.5x)

 

Peter Rabbit: Oh Sony, why must you make such obnoxious kids movies? This movie looks like absolute garbage that not even Domhnall Gleeson can save. Fortunately, the trailer views aren’t so hot. The most recent trailer from a month ago only has 1.3M views on Sony’s channel, and the first has 690k views. LEGO Ninjago and My Little Pony proved that releasing in a dead period for family films doesn’t automatically make you a hit. It will also be contending with Black Panther and Early Man a week later, both of which will be taking up many families. Presidents Day and a somewhat barren February will help its legs, but this is collapsing once A Wrinkle in Time is out. 15/45 (3x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

Ehh, I still think 15:17 has a shot at $100M. Eastwood's on a roll, everyone forgot about Act of Valor, and it's the only major adult-skewing film in February.

[DAJK]

Damn at that Peter Rabbit prediction. I honestly think it'll do 3x that

[MCKillswitch123]

4 hours ago, Tree Billboards said:

- The "family market" still has Jumanji

- the first Paddington had equally strong reception

- And Jumanji would have been in theaters for.... 4 weeks by the time we get to Paddington 2? I don't think audiences will necessarily say no if a new quality family movie comes out.

- Shouldn't that be even more of a reason for Paddington 2 to break out?

 

Don't forget: the 1st Paddington was marketed and distributed by the Weinsteins, not by WB. Granted, WAG has had a very inconsistent record (only one true smash hit - unless you count Happy Feet, but that's technically not WAG - w/Lego Batman also being a hit but a more iffy one), but the studio has put quite some effort into marketing Paddington 2.

 

Also, to add to my 1st point regarding Jumanji: quality movies will always be able to co-exist. Coco and Wonder had to deal with each other in November, and both were still strong hits nonetheless. And there hasn't been a big family animation since Ferdinand, which... hasn't done all that well.

 

With word of mouth this good and virtually no competition to deal with until Peter Rabbit, Paddington 2 is being overlooked imo.

Edited January 3, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Jonwo]

52 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Don't forget: the 1st Paddington was marketed and distributed by the Weinsteins, not by WB. Granted, WAG has had a very inconsistent record (only one true smash hit - unless you count Happy Feet, but that's technically not WAG - w/Lego Batman also being a hit but a more iffy one), but the studio has put quite some effort into marketing Paddington 2.

Paddington 2 isn't a WAG film.

[MCKillswitch123]

15 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Paddington 2 isn't a WAG film.

I know, but I referred to them as an example of WB's animation track record.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

The Post is doing 100m. I guess it may not play with all audiences, but it's timely and should have great WOM.

[WrathOfHan]

37 minutes ago, Reyhawk said:

The Post is doing 100m. I guess it may not play with all audiences, but it's timely and should have great WOM.

Have you seen it yet? I'm guessing it's a fairly liberal movie. The trailer always gets no reactions with my audiences given the modern parallels and the fact most old people here are Trump supporters  

[dudalb]

6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

February 2

Winchester: The House That Ghosts Built: I think there’s some breakout potential here. The Spierg Brothers are coming off of Jigsaw, which pleased fans of the franchise given how inflated the audience score is (that sounds familiar!). However, they didn’t write the script for Jigsaw like their other films. If this is closer in quality to Predestination or even Daybreakers, this could have a solid run. The trailer has 2.5M views on Lionsgate’s channel, which is decent for an original horror film. It should at least match Rings’ opening on Superbowl weekend and likely leg it out better. 15/45 (3x)

I am sure the owners of the Winchester Mystery House in San Jose share your hopes......they are sure as hell promoting the film on their website.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

34 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Have you seen it yet? I'm guessing it's a fairly liberal movie. The trailer always gets no reactions with my audiences given the modern parallels and the fact most old people here are Trump supporters  

Yes, it's really good. Takes awhile to get going but the 3rd act is great. It could play well with even Trump supporters who don't get the parallels as well, but it will mostly do well in the cities.

[WrathOfHan]

February 16

Black Panther: WHOO! The MCU has been on a hot streak with all of their 2017 films making over 300M domestically, and I expect Black Panther to continue this trend. Opening on a holiday weekend certainly increases its breakout potential, and I can see its 4 day approaching Deadpool’s 132M 3 day. Hell, maybe it matches Deadpool all around! I won’t go quite that far yet, but my prediction could certainly change in two months. 110/130/310 (2.81x from 3 day/2.38x from 4 day)

 

Early Man: This movie has been brought up a lot on here recently thanks to the trailer being attached to many showings of The Last Jedi. Some are calling this movie the “Illumantioning” of Aardman. While I personally wouldn’t go quite that far (Illuminati is such a low bar), nothing about the trailers looks interesting, and stop motion movies typically have a hard time at the box office. Given the holiday weekend, this will probably open high enough to surpass The Pirates!, but I don’t see it surpassing Arthur Christmas. 10/12/36 (3.6x from 3 day/3x from 4 day)

 

Samson: HERE IT IS! THE MOVIE THAT WILL DEFEAT BLACK PANTHER’S………. previews! This movie is bound to get lost in the shuffle and will only appeal to the Pure Flix crowd. There isn’t much more that needs to be said, really. 4/5/12 (3x from 3 day/2.4x from 4 day)

Edited January 3, 2018 by WrathOfHan