WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

[That One Girl]

Whack Samson prediction.  300/1B sounds more like it

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Whack Samson prediction.  3B/10B sounds more like it

FTFY

[WrathOfHan]

February 23

Annihilation: I’ve been warning people for a while not to go overboard on their predictions for this. Our very own Tele has described this as “Stalker meets Cronenberg with a touch of 2001,” so you KNOW that general audiences are going to love this! Recently, Paramount sold the overseas rights sans China to Netflix, and the movie will release internationally about 2 and a half weeks after the US. According to THR, Skydance and Paramount had no idea what to do with this after negative test screenings; David Ellison wanted this to be reshot into something more GA friendly, but Scott Rudin stuck to his ground and kept the movie as is. The write-off has been taken on this one, and I feel it’s destined to gross less than mother! 6/14 (2.33x)

 

Game Night: This one’s a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, the cast is killer and has Meth Damon being creepy! On the other hand, it….. doesn’t look that funny. Unless reviews are good or the second trailer is significantly better, I do not think massive numbers are in store. That said, this is the first comedy since Christmas and the only comedy until Love, Simon, so there is definitely a market for this. There are a lot of variables on this one; the dice just have to roll right. 10/35 (3.5x)

 

Was gonna post March 2 tonight, but I want to see how the new Death Wish trailer fares on YouTube.

[filmlover]

I still don't know what a Samson is.

[That One Girl]

Annihilation isn’t going under mother!

[WrathOfHan]

March 2

Death Wish: Originally supposed to come out over Thanksgiving, this remake is releasing at a terrible time. For starters, it’s opening against another R-rated action movie that will be significantly more popular. Second, that action movie appeals to women; Death Wish does not. Third, Eli Roth has a spotty track record when it comes to the box office and reception. Finally, who the fuck was asking for a Death Wish remake? However, the new trailer released yesterday already has 3.5M views on MGM’s YouTube channel, which isn’t a small feat! It shows there is some interest in the movie and could be a modest hit. However, opening in the shadow of Red Sparrow will ultimately limit its gross. 12/30 (2.5x)

 

Red Sparrow: Jennifer Lawrence is continuing her path down riskier projects with this film. After coming off the floppage of mother! (box office only), some are saying her drawing power has diminished greatly. To those people, I say BULLSHIT. mother! was an arthouse movie released wide that was too shocking and disturbing for the general audience to handle. Paramount tried their best marketing it, but at least it will go down as a cult classic. None of that movie’s underperformance was on JLaw whatsoever. In fact, Red Sparrow will be a true test to her drawing power. This film is going to be a very violent, sexy thriller that’s a huge departure from any other movie in her filmography, which is not an issue because it looks really good! Buzz is solid, and this can appeal to both men and women of all ages. Another advantage Red Sparrow has is being the first action movie aimed at older audiences since January and the first adult blockbuster since Orient Express in November. Practically nothing is targeting this throughout March or April, so if audiences go for it, this could be in for a very leggy run. 30/115 (3.75x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

Agree completely with your Red Sparrow prediction. J-Law's back baby!

 

Spoiler

Now I'm ready to debunk your wack prediction for Wrinkle in Time.

 

[That One Girl]

A Wrinkle in Time over 200M or bust

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

After coming off the floppage of mother! (box office only),

What if it ends up getting Razzie nominations? 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

What if it ends up getting Razzie nominations? 

The Razzies nominated The Shining and Dressed to Kill in the same year and Scarface a few years later. If anything, Razzie nominations would help mother!'s future classic status.

[Fancyarcher]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Razzies nominated The Shining and Dressed to Kill in the same year and Scarface a few years later. If anything, Razzie nominations would help mother!'s future classic status.

That and the Razzies are incredibly irrelevant. They're all about awarding what's "mainstream", and popular (be it actors or films), more then anything. 

[WrathOfHan]

March 9

Gringo: This is the second movie Amazon Studios is pushing wide to a significant amount of theaters after The Big Sick and also their first partnership with STX, a studio that is constantly hit or miss. The trailer was generally ok but did not register at ALL on YouTube. The trailers uploaded to FilmSelect, MovieClips, and Amazon only combine to roughly 635k views. Additionally, releasing two weeks after Game Night is going to hurt this. Charlize Theron is the biggest name in the cast, but she is not an automatic draw. Game Night is headlined by Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams, both of whom have hit or miss comedies but have a hell lot more drawing power for a comedy. If this movie flat out sucks, a sub-10M total seems likely. I will remain optimistic and assume it’s at least ok, but either way, Gringo won’t be making cash. 5/12.5 (2.5x)

 

The Hurricane Heist: Is Entertainment Studios even releasing it on this date? The studio proved they can make a solid hit with 47 Meters Down last year but fell flat on their face with Friend Request and now Hostiles. It’s hard to predict this movie without a trailer, but given Rob Cohen’s track record as of late, it is a safe assumption that this will be pure garbage and flop in the face of numerous other releases. 3/6 (2x)

 

The Strangers: Prey at Night: A sequel to The Strangers has been talked about for many years now. The first adjusts to 65.4M and is fairly popular online. This sequel is directed by Johannes Roberts of 47 Meters Down, which could draw some interest if marketed properly. However, the first trailer is performing like shit for a horror sequel on YouTube; the upload by Aviron only has 1.2M views after nearly two months. Given it will have been over a month since Winchester and A Quiet Place is still 4 weeks out, it will benefit from a light market, but I expect legs to be shit. 8/18 (2.25x)

 

A Wrinkle in Time: CONTROVERSY ALERT! I see all these 150M, 200M, even 250M+ predictions for this movie and go……… WHAT? A Wrinkle in Time has bomb written all over it. First off, the trailers are incredibly unclear as to what the film is about. The first trailer boils down to “Chris Pine is trapped, and only his daughter can save him…. Somehow!”, and the second trailer is even more confusing and practically sidelines Pine. The trailers rely solely on the visuals, which look good but shouldn’t be the main selling point without an easily digestible plot to market. In addition to being confusing, the trailers do not have many views on YouTube. The second trailer only has 2.9M views on Disney’s channel after about a month and a half, and the first isn’t much higher at 4.9M all the way from July. For an “original” Disney movie, this is pretty weak, and the like to dislike ratio is pretty bad for both trailers (82/18 for the second and 88/12 for the first). The main saving grace A Wrinkle in Time has is light competition in the family market. Ready Player One will attract families but is PG-13, and Sherlock Gnomes is a non-factor. Isle of Dogs likely won’t be expanding wide until April, and that appeals more to Wes Anderson’s fanbase than kids. Unless the movie is absolute shit, a 3x should happen. However, when the opening weekend is going to be low, legs can only do so much. 20/65 (3.25x)

[MrGamer]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

A Wrinkle in Time: 20/65 (3.25x)

[That One Girl]

Wack.

[Eric Loves Rey]

I still think it can cross $100M. Stuff like John Carter and Tomorrowland still opened above $30M, and with zero competition in its wake, it can still find its way to opening above that and getting a 3x+ multiplier. $33M/$110M

[That One Girl]

It doesn’t need trailer views when the trailer for it played in front of the majority of Star Wars shows

[Eric Loves Rey]

Just now, That One Guy said:

It doesn’t need trailer views when the trailer for it played in front of the majority of Star Wars shows

Also, isn't it a family film? Obviously if it was only getting like 1.5 million or less that would be troublesome, but family films don't really need blockbuster trailer views to at least cross $100M. Now, $277M? That's a toughie.

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

It doesn’t need trailer views when the trailer for it played in front of the majority of Star Wars shows

That worked out for The Finest Hours  

[YM!]

On 12/30/2016 at 3:40 PM, WrathOfHan said:

March 31:

The Boss Baby: This film looks like your generic, disposable kids flick. If this was made by Illumination, people would be orgasming all over this, but modern day Dreamworks doesn’t have that enthusiasm. Beauty and the Beast will still be drawing in family audiences, and I don’t even think this hits 100M. There’s a strong chance this is in the studio’s five lowest grossing films. 20/70 (3.5x)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

A Wrinkle in Time: CONTROVERSY ALERT! I see all these 150M, 200M, even 250M+ predictions for this movie and go……… WHAT? A Wrinkle in Time has bomb written all over it. First off, the trailers are incredibly unclear as to what the film is about. The first trailer boils down to “Chris Pine is trapped, and only his daughter can save him…. Somehow!”, and the second trailer is even more confusing and practically sidelines Pine. The trailers rely solely on the visuals, which look good but shouldn’t be the main selling point without an easily digestible plot to market. In addition to being confusing, the trailers do not have many views on YouTube. The second trailer only has 2.9M views on Disney’s channel after about a month and a half, and the first isn’t much higher at 4.9M all the way from July. For an “original” Disney movie, this is pretty weak, and the like to dislike ratio is pretty bad for both trailers (82/18 for the second and 88/12 for the first). The main saving grace A Wrinkle in Time has is light competition in the family market. Ready Player One will attract families but is PG-13, and Sherlock Gnomes is a non-factor. Isle of Dogs likely won’t be expanding wide until April, and that appeals more to Wes Anderson’s fanbase than kids. Unless the movie is absolute shit, a 3x should happen. However, when the opening weekend is going to be low, legs can only do so much. 20/65 (3.25x)

This wouldn’t be the first time Han underestimated a family film in March.

Edited January 4, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[That One Girl]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

That worked out for The Finest Hours  

 

Except theaters also had an option to attach Civil War, Jungle Book, and Zootopia.  A Wrinkle in Time is required playing for every 2D show.