Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

What do you want to tell us with that?

 

Sony won't win the Year, Disney, WB or Universal will.

I doubt FOX has a Chance same for Sony and Lionsgate and Paramount well they will probably gross less than half of #1, I think Paramount might gross just 1/3 of the #1 gross (Grosses less than a third of Uni and Disney in 2015, Disney in 2016, Disney and WB in 2017) So Chances are high it will happen again.

His Disney "lowballing" is way below any kind of realistic floor for most of those. 200 for BP, 380 for IW, 240 for I2? Lol. BP, IW, Solo, and I2 all on their own will come close to or clear $1.7b DOM. 

[Barnack]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

His Disney "lowballing" is way below any kind of realistic floor for most of those. 200 for BP, 380 for IW, 240 for I2? Lol. BP, IW, Solo, and I2 all on their own will come close to or clear $1.7b DOM. 

That is just because you are assuming electricity will be available mostly everywhere surrounding their release.

[Taruseth]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

His Disney "lowballing" is way below any kind of realistic floor for most of those. 200 for BP, 380 for IW, 240 for I2? Lol. BP, IW, Solo, and I2 all on their own will come close to or clear $1.7b DOM. 

I know, I just want to know why someone would predict that?

 

 

Marry Poppins 90M, if that happens...

It should at least gross 150M

[That One Girl]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

There's a far better chance of the world ending than pretty much any of those Disney predicts coming true.

 

Nowhere did I suggest that there was a high chance of those happening  

[Johnny Tran]

Avengers vs. TDK is an apples to oranges. One film is a single character. Another is a group of characters brought together from previous solo films. Unless you think Batman is a bigger character combined than all of the other heroes put together. 

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Nowhere did I suggest that there was a high chance of those happening  

 Good for you

[Mojoguy]

Unless you think Batman is a bigger character combined than all of the other heroes put together.

Already proven untrue when BvS and JL underperformed. They should keep Batman in solo movies. Wonder Woman too.

[Barnack]

16 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I know, I just want to know why someone would predict that?

 

 

Marry Poppins 90M, if that happens...

It should at least gross 150M

90 million is probably a prediction before the end of the year, it is a December 25 release. S90m between december 25 and december 31 would still be predicting above 190m for that movie I think.

[Taruseth]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

90 million is probably a prediction before the end of the year, it is a December 25 release. S90m between december 25 and december 31 would still be predicting above 190m for that movie I think.

Thanks for clarifying that.

 

That would make this a reasonable prediction.

[redfirebird2008]

19 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Avengers vs. TDK is an apples to oranges. One film is a single character. Another is a group of characters brought together from previous solo films. Unless you think Batman is a bigger character combined than all of the other heroes put together. 

 

Batman does have much better/more popular villains than any other superhero. The Joker is extremely popular. You saw that with how Suicide Squad blew up on opening weekend.

[MovieMan89]

19 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Avengers vs. TDK is an apples to oranges. One film is a single character. Another is a group of characters brought together from previous solo films. Unless you think Batman is a bigger character combined than all of the other heroes put together. 

Yes, but they're both in contention for the all time admission record of a CBM and it would be nice to definitively know which wins (or SM1). 

[MovieMan89]

25 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Nowhere did I suggest that there was a high chance of those happening  

I know, but there's a difference between a low chance and no chance lol. Many of those are no chance, barring some truly toxic WOM and marketing or something haha. For example, pre-sales basically confirm BP isn't opening below 100m, likely  not below 120. So we'd need a sub 2x multi on a origin story CBM for 200 to happen. No way.

Edited January 15, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Barnack]

22 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Avengers vs. TDK is an apples to oranges. One film is a single character. Another is a group of characters brought together from previous solo films. Unless you think Batman is a bigger character combined than all of the other heroes put together. 

Not that much apples vs oranges on the domestic market, imo.

 

Batman and Jokers were pretty big and most of the avengers character not that much.

 

There is a reason they finished really close to each other in ticket sales.

 

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes, but they're both in contention for the all time admission record of a CBM and it would be nice to definitively know which wins (or SM1). 

 

I would probably go with Spidey as the more impressive run of the bunch. Faced way more competition from Star Wars.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I would probably go with Spidey as the more impressive run of the bunch. Faced way more competition from Star Wars.

TDK got the luckiest out of all three for competition I'd say, and SM1 definitely had the most of the three.

100m+ grossers all three movies faced in their first two months of release:

 

TA:

Brave - $237m

Ted - $218m

Madagascar 3 - $216m

MIB 3 - $179m

Snow White and the Huntsman - $155m

Prometheus - $126m

Magic Mike - $113m

 

TDK:

Mamma Mia - $144m

Tropic Thunder - $110m

The Mummy 3 - $102m

Step Brothers - $100m

 

SM1:

AOTC - $302m

Scooby Doo - $153m

Lilo and Stitch - $145m

Minority Report - $132m

Mr. Deeds - $126m

The Bourne Identity - $121m

The Sum of All Fears - $118m

[redfirebird2008]

I don't know if lucky is the right word. Late summer is pretty much a wasteland. We saw that in 2017 with some of the rubbish movies that were getting released each week around that August period. Late July is a very good release date. I don't understand why the studios stack up so many releases from late May to early July. They should spread more of them to late July and early August.

 

Just looking at Avengers and Spidey, Avengers had already made over 76% of its domestic total when the first movie on your list was released (MIB3 for Memorial Day weekend). Spidey had grossed about 59% of its final total when Star Wars released in mid-May.

[La Binoche]

OH MY GOD THE GREATEST SHOWMAN MADE MORE MONEY THAN STAR WARS OVER THE LONG WEEKEND LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL  

[narniadis]

25 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

OH MY GOD THE GREATEST SHOWMAN MADE MORE MONEY THAN STAR WARS OVER THE LONG WEEKEND LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL  

apparently you are the only one that doesn't read the board? We have talked about that possibility since like last Monday???

[La Binoche]

10 minutes ago, narniadis said:

apparently you are the only one that doesn't read the board? We have talked about that possibility since like last Monday???

 

I definitely don't read the board lol. Nobody's got time for that. 

[MovieMan89]

Wow, just noticed TGS and J both went up significantly for the 3 day since the first estimates. 

Edited January 16, 2018 by MovieMan89