Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Eric Furiosa]

6 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Hence its FLOP status

 

Its not a FLOP like Waterworld, John Cater and Gigli, however, it will be up there will how fast it crashed and burned after the 220 opening. It will be on the lists of blockbuster flops though on many websites in the future

 

So, in a sense its a FLOP. Honestly, I enjoyed the film but it was a 'Meh" to me as far as the series goes

[aabattery]

Lucasfilm looking for the money they've apparently lost from TLJ:

 

[Chad Stevens]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

Lucasfilm looking for the money they've apparently lost from TLJ:

 

lol

[MovieMan89]

17 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I think realistic target is 75% of Rogue's remaining gross, so that would be $22.7 million left and a total of $617.6 million.

The difference between RO and TLJ's DOM gross is basically going to come down to how much more TLJ made on OW. 

Edited January 16, 2018 by MovieMan89

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Hence its FLOP status

 

Its not a FLOP like Waterworld, John Cater and Gigli, however, it will be up there will how fast it crashed and burned after the 220 opening. It will be on the lists of blockbuster flops though on many websites in the future

 

So, in a sense its a FLOP. Honestly, I enjoyed the film but it was a 'Meh" to me as far as the series goes

 

It already has a 2.7 multiplier and will probably finish around 2.8 multiplier. That is not what many expected due to Christmas holidays, but it is still a very good multiplier for films that open above $140m. Here is the list:

 

1. TFA - 248 opening/3.78 multi

2. TLJ - 220 opening/2.8 multi

3. JW - 209 opening/3.12 multi

4. TA1 - 207 opening/3.00 multi

5. TA2 - 191 opening/2.40 multi

6. CA3 - 179 opening/2.28 multi

7. BATB - 175 opening/2.88 multi

8. IM3 - 174 opening/2.35 multi

9. DH2 - 169 opening/2.25 multi

10. BvS - 166 opening/1.99 multi

11. TDKR - 161 opening/2.78 multi

12. TDK - 158 opening/3.36 multi

13. THG2 - 158 opening/2.69 multi

14. Rogue - 155 opening/3.43 multi

15. THG1 - 152 opening/2.67 multi

16. SM3 - 151 opening/2.23 multi

17. FATF7 - 147 opening/2.40 multi

18. GOTG2 - 146 opening/2.66 multi

19. New Moon - 143 opening/2.08 multi

20. BD2 - 141 opening/2.07 multi

 

You can do much worse than a 2.8 multiplier, especially for a movie that opened to $220m. The bigger they open the harder they usually fall. So far the other 3 movies that reached $200m opening also had incredible WOM fueling them to multipliers above 3. That's not something we should expect all the time for 200 openers going forward.

 

[MaxAggressor]

 

 

[RandomCat]

29 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Hence its FLOP status

 

Its not a FLOP like Waterworld, John Cater and Gigli, however, it will be up there will how fast it crashed and burned after the 220 opening. It will be on the lists of blockbuster flops though on many websites in the future

 

So, in a sense its a FLOP. Honestly, I enjoyed the film but it was a 'Meh" to me as far as the series goes

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

It already has a 2.7 multiplier and will probably finish around 2.8 multiplier. That is not what many expected due to Christmas holidays, but it is still a very good multiplier for films that open above $140m. Here is the list:

 

1. TFA - 248 opening/3.78 multi

2. TLJ - 220 opening/2.8 multi

3. JW - 209 opening/3.12 multi

4. TA1 - 207 opening/3.00 multi

5. TA2 - 191 opening/2.40 multi

6. CA3 - 179 opening/2.28 multi

7. BATB - 175 opening/2.88 multi

8. IM3 - 174 opening/2.35 multi

9. DH2 - 169 opening/2.25 multi

10. BvS - 166 opening/1.99 multi

11. TDKR - 161 opening/2.78 multi

12. TDK - 158 opening/3.36 multi

13. THG2 - 158 opening/2.69 multi

14. Rogue - 155 opening/3.43 multi

15. THG1 - 152 opening/2.67 multi

16. SM3 - 151 opening/2.23 multi

17. FATF7 - 147 opening/2.40 multi

18. GOTG2 - 146 opening/2.66 multi

19. New Moon - 143 opening/2.08 multi

20. BD2 - 141 opening/2.07 multi

 

You can do much worse than a 2.8 multiplier, especially for a movie that opened to $220m. The bigger they open the harder they usually fall. So far the other 3 movies that reached $200m opening also had incredible WOM fueling them to multipliers above 3. That's not something we should expect all the time for 200 openers going forward.

 

Great Post.

 

Spider-Man 3 nearly adjusts to 200M in todays ticket prices. With IMAX and PLF screens plus 3D, it surely would have opened to 210M+ in todays day and age. And it still would have that shitty multiplier of 2,23.

 

[PDC1987]

36 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Hence its FLOP status

 

Its not a FLOP like Waterworld, John Cater and Gigli, however, it will be up there will how fast it crashed and burned after the 220 opening. It will be on the lists of blockbuster flops though on many websites in the future

 

So, in a sense its a FLOP. Honestly, I enjoyed the film but it was a 'Meh" to me as far as the series goes

In no sense is $1.3 billion on a combined production and global marketing and distribution cost of under $500 million a flop.

[Arlborn]

34 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Hence its FLOP status

 

Its not a FLOP like Waterworld, John Cater and Gigli, however, it will be up there will how fast it crashed and burned after the 220 opening. It will be on the lists of blockbuster flops though on many websites in the future

 

So, in a sense its a FLOP. Honestly, I enjoyed the film but it was a 'Meh" to me as far as the series goes

I can't believe you come into a box office forum to say something as foolish as this. Do you have any idea how moronic you sound to the other members when you say something like this? It's amazing how ignorant you come off as.

[MCKillswitch123]

Anyone calling The Last Jedi a flop has no idea what a flop actually is. Unless your movie cost more than 700 million on production budget - and if it did, you are the worst studio executive/producer I've ever seen in my life for greenlighting a budget that immeasurable - any film that makes 1.25 BILLION worldwide is no flop and will never be.

 

Disappointment is an entirely different thing than flop.

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Great Post.

 

Spider-Man 3 nearly adjusts to 200M in todays ticket prices. With IMAX and PLF screens plus 3D, it surely would have opened to 210M+ in todays day and age. And it still would have that shitty multiplier of 2,23.

 

 

Yup, I also think Ultron would be around $200m without the Saturday boxing match hurting it. Tack on 2 years of inflation to that one and it's at $198m without accounting for the boxing problem. I think these kind of runs around 2.4 or 2.5 multi from a gigantic opening are more along the lines of what to expect from a really huge opening.

 

TFA was just a monster in every sense of the word. Rogue's run was better than we realized too. Time will give better perspective.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, PDC1987 said:

In no sense is $1.3 billion on a combined production and global marketing and distribution cost of under $500 million a flop.

The word is quite used in many strange way all around the web, but using flop for a movie that appear on that list:

 

Rank	Title	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year^
1	Avatar	Fox	$2,788.0	$760.5	27.3%	$2,027.5	72.7%	2009^
2	Titanic	Par.	$2,187.5	$659.4	30.1%	$1,528.1	69.9%	1997^
3	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$2,068.2	$936.7	45.3%	$1,131.6	54.7%	2015
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$1,671.7	$652.3	39.0%	$1,019.4	61.0%	2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$1,518.8	$623.4	41.0%	$895.5	59.0%	2012
6	Furious 7	Uni.	$1,516.0	$353.0	23.3%	$1,163.0	76.7%	2015
7	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$1,405.4	$459.0	32.7%	$946.4	67.3%	2015
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$1,341.5	$381.0	28.4%	$960.5	71.6%	2011
9	Frozen	BV	$1,276.5	$400.7	31.4%	$875.7	68.6%	2013
10	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$1,270.6	$595.6	46.9%	$675.0	53.1%	2017

 

And still growing (will probably end up number 9 outside a surprise over 1,341 for number 8) is one of the strangest I have seen.

Specially consider how strong domestically and no China BO in that WW numbers :

 

Rank	Title(click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross	Year^
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$936,662,225	2015
2	Avatar	Fox	$760,507,625	2009^
3	Titanic	Par.	$659,363,944	1997^
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$652,270,625	2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$623,357,910	2012
6	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$595,556,584	2017
7	The Dark Knight	WB	$534,858,444	2008^
8	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	$532,177,324	2016
9	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$504,014,165	2017
10	Finding Dory	BV	$486,295,561	2016

 

 

All the movie above it domestic are considered for good reason all time great run (even some below it like TDK)

[Brainbug]

What a flop.

 

1	Avatar	Fox	$2,788.0	$760.5	27.3%	$2,027.5	72.7%	2009^
2	Titanic	Par.	$2,187.5	$659.4	30.1%	$1,528.1	69.9%	1997^
3	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$2,068.2	$936.7	45.3%	$1,131.6	54.7%	2015
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$1,671.7	$652.3	39.0%	$1,019.4	61.0%	2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$1,518.8	$623.4	41.0%	$895.5	59.0%	2012
6	Furious 7	Uni.	$1,516.0	$353.0	23.3%	$1,163.0	76.7%	2015
7	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$1,405.4	$459.0	32.7%	$946.4	67.3%	2015
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$1,341.5	$381.0	28.4%	$960.5	71.6%	2011
9	Frozen	BV	$1,276.5	$400.7	31.4%	$875.7	68.6%	2013
10	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$1,270.6	$595.6	46.9%	$675.0	53.1%	2017

 

Will only get to #9 or 8 all-time Worldwide. Massive failure, guys.

[MovieMan89]

There's no scenario possible where TLJ could have outright "failed" at the box office. So can we please stop pretending that the fact that it's not a box office bomb is some great victory for it? $1.3b for a movie whose predecessor did over $2b will never be something to celebrate as some amazing achievement. 

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

There's no scenario possible where TLJ could have outright "failed" at the box office. So can we please stop pretending that the fact that it's not a box office bomb is some great victory for it? $1.3b for a movie whose predecessor did over $2b will never be something to celebrate as some amazing achievement. 

But 1.3 is REALLY good though. It's not really fair to compare it to TFA in anyway because of what is a truly once in a generation kind of movie release.

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There's no scenario possible where TLJ could have outright "failed" at the box office. So can we please stop pretending that the fact that it's not a box office bomb is some great victory for it? $1.3b for a movie whose predecessor did over $2b will never be something to celebrate as some amazing achievement. 

 

I guess now our expectations are adjusted going forward. TFA probably was just a huge over-performance and we won't see it again from this franchise for a long time (maybe ever).

[Lordmandeep]

TLJ is not a flop in any way, it's still one of the biggest domestic hits in the past ten years. 

 

It simply did not meet very high expectations for its box office and came under conservative estimates for its box Office. 

 

Whether this was due to WOM or it was preordained is something we shall fun debating. 

[KeepItU25071906]

Offtop:

 

Where is "The Goldfinch" thread? I can't find

[redfirebird2008]

33 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

 

 

Very good actuals for Jumanji. I don't think anyone dreamed it would make $35m for the 4-day MLK weekend after a $52m opening 5-day total.