Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[George Parr]

10 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Can anyone tell me how much ESB actually dropped from ANH?? I mean the non-adjusted drop in figures form Ep. IV to Ep. V is around 32% but it includes the immediate re-expansion figures & re-releases in '78, '79 etc for ANH, no?? In it's 1st run in theaters, ANH made a little over 220 million while ESB grossed 209.4 million. So ESB dropped 7% from ANH. Is it incorrect??

I don't think that ESB topped 200m.

 

ANH made 221.3m with its original release, added ~43.8m with the 1978 re-release that followed while the original release may still have been running in some theaters (265m total), with another 22.5m coming with a 1979 re-release (287.5m). It followed that up with a 1981 re-release that made 17.2m (304.7m) and a 1982 re-release that added 18m (322.7m total).

 

ESB finished with 181.4m, followed by a 1981 re-release that added 26.8m (208.2m total) and a 1982 re-release that added 14.5m (222.7m).

 

From then on you have to decide whether you take just the original release, whether to count ANH's first re-release as a re-release or just an expansion, whether to count an equal number of re-releases or simply going by the total of all releases. There isn't really one definitive drop.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, BK007 said:

Just wanted to say, (before catching up on the early part of the thread) that Jumanji and TGS holds have very little to do with MoviePass, lol.

 

There is no evidence there. End of. Great WOM is propelling these films forward. Spectacular.

 

I enjoy these runs (even if the totals aren't all that record breaking) more than BIG movies that fizzle out quick.

Like I argued before, if MP was truly boosting legs for anything it would be for the lukewarm/poor WOM films. Ya know, like that Space Battles movie. 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

because there is so much jam packed this weekend....  next weekend sees lots of new product. 

???

We only have two new releases and neither are hitting 3000+. 

[dxmatrixdt]

would MP admissions give theaters incentive to keep showing DH2, Murdrr/Express, Wonder, JL, SW, Showman or Jumanji, or would they rather go after things that benefit them as a local business?

[Mojoguy]

Theaters will keep movies that have good legs.

[dxmatrixdt]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

???

We only have two new releases and neither are hitting 3000+. 

+7,000 product

Den of Thieves - 2500

29 Strong - 2900

Forever My Girl

Expansions........

 

 

but fine, the market should expand to accompany this.  TGS could add some and loose some but it prob won't be the first to go

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Theaters will keep movies that have good legs.

Exactly, they're not going to be slashing the screens of the movie that's dropping 10% every weekend and remaining firmly planted in the top 5. 

[dxmatrixdt]

when does Hostiles go wide and how by much?

[MovieMan89]

8 minutes ago, George Parr said:

I don't think that ESB topped 200m.

 

ANH made 221.3m with its original release, added ~43.8m with the 1978 re-release that followed while the original release may still have been running in some theaters (265m total), with another 22.5m coming with a 1979 re-release (287.5m). It followed that up with a 1981 re-release that made 17.2m (304.7m) and a 1982 re-release that added 18m (322.7m total).

 

ESB finished with 181.4m, followed by a 1981 re-release that added 26.8m (208.2m total) and a 1982 re-release that added 14.5m (222.7m).

 

From then on you have to decide whether you take just the original release, whether to count ANH's first re-release as a re-release or just an expansion, whether to count an equal number of re-releases or simply going by the total of all releases. There isn't really one definitive drop.

No idea where you got all that from, but gonna trust you know what you're talking about. Thanks!

Using the 221 and 181 numbers, you get these adjusted for inflation drops from first to second in the trilogies:

 

ANH to ESB: -32%

TFA to TLJ: -36% (assuming 620 for TLJ)

TPM to AOTC: -39%

[MCKillswitch123]

2017 was a jam packed year of surprises, with Get Out, Wonder Woman and It in particular standing out as some of the greatest box office runs of all time. If we haven't added Jumanji to that list yet, we better, cause hoooooly shit. There is a possibility that it becomes the 2nd highest grossing Sony film of all time, maybe #1 by crossing 400M and beating Spider-Man '02. That's ridiculous and insane and amazing. Jumanji 3 is gonna happen, without a shadow of a doubt, so prepare for that.

 

And The Greatest Showman is also having an epic, epic run, beating its saturated 3-day opening in its 4th weekend. Madness. It went from certified bomb to certified success in no time. The powah of wom, baby.

 

The Post is looking fine, and The Commuter is doing decent tbf. Insidious 4 also with a very solid drop for a horror fourthquel in January.... 70M DOM finish is now on the table, which is amazing for this movie.

 

Although I'm still hoping that the weekend is backloaded due to the snow. Because that Paddington 2 number hurts.

[Mojoguy]

Hoping Jumanji will win next weekend.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Hoping Jumanji will win next weekend.

Can't imagine when the last time a movie that didn't open at #1 then went on to spend 3 weekends at #1 was. 

[weresweresweres]

9 hours ago, aabattery said:

Moderation:

 

It's been four weeks so tagged spoilers are okay for TLJ outside of the spoiler thread. 

 

Emphasis on the tagged part. Thanks

I'm so sorry i forgot that it's too soon to publish spoilers.

[dxmatrixdt]

The following 30 movies account for 41,741 theater counts this weekend.

Marshall, Condorito, Father Figures, Hostiles, Daddy's Home 2, Justice LEague, Thor Ragnarok, Downsizing, Disaster Artist, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, WOnder, All the Money, Ferdinand, Coco, Phantom Thread, Three Billboards, Shape of Water, I TOnya, Molly's Game, Darkest Hour, Pitch Perfect 3, Proud Mary, Paddington, Insidious 3, Greatest Showman, Star Wars, Commuter, The Post, and Jumanji.

 

Historically. the post MLK weekend will see a net increase of a few thousand counts and this next weekend the market will try to accommodate as much as it can. 

 

If we get 7,000 + of new theater count product this upcoming weekend, subtracting only 5,000 from the following 30 movies above is probably the most to get rid of.  Downsizing and Father Figures really took the hit for everything else to stay in shape.  Everything seems to be doing really well.  Locations are probably filling up nationwide.  Paddington seems to average 6 shows / location and Jumanji still is getting the most.  Ferdinand, All the Money in the Wrld, Pitch P 3 could loose 500 - 1,500 next week. 

Is Phantom Thread expanding?

Call Me By Your Name?

Three Billboards averaged 71 ppl/theater Monday at 310 locations, expanded to 1,000 and averaged 70 on Monday when it dropped 4.3% after Golden Globes.  That suggests the expansion is running smoothly and whatever it looses in some places it will gain in others.  I see 3 Billboards gaining more traction like Greatest Showman and Darkest Hour.  Might reach 50m. 

Molly's Game is killing it compared to Miss Sloane.  A new writer turned director went smoothly (Transcendence?), it gained locations, and the theorizing over expanding and accommodating market mentioned above suggests it will not loose too many of its theater counts.  

People are showing up to the biopics with I, Tonya.  Might want to look at when The Imitation Game was performing well.  http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2016&wknd=04&p=.htm  I, Tonya or Phantom Thread might add 500.  In fact, at least two movies might add 350 or more counts next weekend. 

Probably the best way to analyze increases/decreases for next weekend.  Just subtract out whatever the 3 wide releases put in next week.  6-7k depending on if you want 12 Strong to have 2 prints per place.   and then do not do anything to balance out expansions.  make the expansions worth about 1.5k.  and you get a probable theater count.  With all of this, I bet the most Ferdinand looses is 1,154 next week

 

-1,000 Ferdinand

-700 All the Money

-300 Wonder

-100 Disaster

-200 Downsizing

-200 Marshall

-300 Coco

-300 Molly's

-200 Darkest

-700 Pitch Perfect

-500 Insidious

-400 Showman

-400 Star Wars             

-5,000

 

 

[BK007]

35 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

what about Murder on the Orient Express, Wonder, and Daddy's Home 2 versus Justice League?

 

Not sure what you mean here?

 

In general legs have always been better to watch (lol) for me.

 

How to Train Your Dragon, Frozen, Avatar, etc.

 

Murder did pretty strong for a movie that would possibly be shunned my this generation. Wonder, did really good, but was expecting at least $20-30m+ more due to A+ CinemaScore. Coco also, I feel should have done more.

 

Not sure Daddy's Home 2 really did that good. It fell from its predecessor like was expected. Yeah, it made it to $100m which is more than you can say for other comedy sequels, but you just know if they make a 3rd it will be a non-factor.

 

Justice League, er, I don't think any part of its run was fascinating in a good way. OW was a genuine joke (I laughed).

[JohnnyGossamer]

18 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

2017 was a jam packed year of surprises, with Get Out, Wonder Woman and It in particular standing out as some of the greatest box office runs of all time. If we haven't added Jumanji to that list yet, we better, cause hoooooly shit. There is a possibility that it becomes the 2nd highest grossing Sony film of all time, maybe #1 by crossing 400M and beating Spider-Man '02. That's ridiculous and insane and amazing. Jumanji 3 is gonna happen, without a shadow of a doubt, so prepare for that.

 

And The Greatest Showman is also having an epic, epic run, beating its saturated 3-day opening in its 4th weekend. Madness. It went from certified bomb to certified success in no time. The powah of wom, baby.

 

The Post is looking fine, and The Commuter is doing decent tbf. Insidious 4 also with a very solid drop for a horror fourthquel in January.... 70M DOM finish is now on the table, which is amazing for this movie.

 

Although I'm still hoping that the weekend is backloaded due to the snow. Because that Paddington 2 number hurts.

Not only is it on my list but it and Get Out are easily at the top. Now, if Jumanji miraculously holds well enough to somehow surpass Spider-man's unadjusted gross DOM, it's easily #1 on my list of surprises. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

I actually believe the Sunday holds and Monday numbers will be even better than what Deadline projects across the Top 10 due to some healthy little backloading due to the weather Friday night through Saturday with the snowfall. I actually especially see this buoying the current 4 day projections off Jumanji. Seeing that Saturday number, I'm convinced Jumanji will post of 4 day of $35M+ and could potentially even challenge it's 3 day total last weekend of $37M+. 

[Poseidon]

So it seems like the trolls have given up on "The Post".

 

Up to 7,4 on IMDB and 70% over at RT. 

[Krissykins]

God the next few weeks look dire.

 

I’ve never heard of Den of Thieves (it stars 50 Cent and Gerald Butler ) and Chris Hemsworth is releasing another solo dud. 

 

The next few weeks will be about the awards bait holdovers and Jumanji. 

[dxmatrixdt]

22 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

Not sure what you mean here?

 

you mentioned something about moviepass and Showman legging it too 100M on WOM.  I was wondering if there might be a correlation with DH2 and Murder/Express and their performances.  and how it all related or not related to MP