Early Friday Numbers (The Lorax - 17.5M; Project X - 8.2M)

[kayumanggi]

As per BOM:

01.06 - 01.08 Moviegoers Possessed By 'Devil Inside'

01.13 - 01.15 'Contraband' Hijacks MLK Weekend

01.20 - 01.22 'Underworld' Fends Off Soarin' 'Red Tails'

01.27 - 01.29 'The Grey' Leads the Pack

02.03 - 02.05 'Chronicle' Barely Overpowers 'Woman in Black'

02.10 - 02.12 Moviegoers Say “I Do” to ‘The Vow,’ Check In to ‘Safe House’

02.17 - 02.19 'Safe House' Secures Presidents Day Lead

02.24 - 02.26 'Act of Valor' Gets SEAL of Approval

As of this Friday: 'The Lorax' Gets the Message Out on Friday

Then:

03.09 - 03.11 John Carter Fails to Leap High

[iceroll]

I think The Lorax can have an even larger Saturday bump than Horton and Monsters vs. Aliens because those movies were released closer to Easter break so more schools were out. I think it could do closer to 60% since Rango went up 73% and that movie had more adult appeal.

[ecstasy]

As per BOM:

01.06 - 01.08 Moviegoers Possessed By 'Devil Inside'

01.13 - 01.15 'Contraband' Hijacks MLK Weekend

01.20 - 01.22 'Underworld' Fends Off Soarin' 'Red Tails'

01.27 - 01.29 'The Grey' Leads the Pack

02.03 - 02.05 'Chronicle' Barely Overpowers 'Woman in Black'

02.10 - 02.12 Moviegoers Say “I Do” to ‘The Vow,’ Check In to ‘Safe House’

02.17 - 02.19 'Safe House' Secures Presidents Day Lead

02.24 - 02.26 'Act of Valor' Gets SEAL of Approval

As of this Friday: 'The Lorax' Gets the Message Out on Friday

Then:

03.09 - 03.11 John Carter Fails to Leap High

LOL pretty clever.

[Robertron]

I think The Lorax can have an even larger Saturday bump than Horton and Monsters vs. Aliens because those movies were released closer to Easter break so more schools were out. I think it could do closer to 60% since Rango went up 73% and that movie had more adult appeal.

I'm glad more people are seeing the potential for a HUGE weekend here - even bigger than it already appears to be!I'm saying it now - $60m is locked.

[kayumanggi]

I now think BRAVE could potentially open to 70 M +. The biggest non-sequel opening for a Pixar film.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Right now, here are my extrapolations for the openers.

The Lorax: 62.98m

17.4m

26.97m (+55%)

18.61m (-31%)

Project X: 18.11m

8.17m

6.37m (-22%)

3.57m (-44%)

Very solid weekend for both films.

[ecstasy]

I'm glad more people are seeing the potential for a HUGE weekend here - even bigger than it already appears to be!I'm saying it now - $60m is locked.

LOL what a weekend for Nikke to be going on hiatus. Probably won't get any Saturday estimates.

[FilmBuff]

Good to see this weekend numbers thread is huge.

[Robertron]

LOL what a weekend for Nikke to be going on hiatus. Probably won't get any Saturday estimates.

I seriously want to punch Nikki right now. Her updates are what keep is going.If she were, this thread would be double the size knowing the amount of updates she LOVES to give!

[Jonwo]

Illumination has produced another hit for Universal. They do seem to produce decent films without spending big bucks unlike Dreamworks and Pixar. It'll make money from the US release alone and should fare decently OS. I do hope The Pirates! can break out but Aardman have a patchy record domestically although they thrive OS especially in the UK.

[The Hand of Illumination]

I am also talking of OW. Regarding the first blockbuster of the year, it was obviously the Lorax. If John Carter was so big, it should've scared the Lorax away, but it didn't. If you don't consider animation as blockbusters, 300 was not at all demographically diversified either. I took Mountain because that was supposed to be Disney's strongest spring performer back in 09, but it failed, this also after March petered out at an incredible rate. With Sucker Punch, sure, it was niche, but it wanted to be a blockbuster and that's where I draw my comparison. John Carter wants to be a blockbuster, it currently isn't and that is of course a major difference. Basically, not everything IS a blockbuster. Disney wants it to be one, but it looks like a trainwreck right now. I'd love to be wrong, but the Lorax opening to 55m+ has nothing to do with John Carter's ability to open to an equivalent amount. It's like saying, if the Blind Side can make 200m+ then Brothers can too.It's the first big budget release, I counter with, so? No one gives two shits if a release is big budgeted. They see a movie if it's appealing. John Carter seems to have alienated sector after sector. It targets it, and tracking seems to say it has failed to interest anyone. But I'm missing, just like you were, my point. If anything, since the Lorax made $60m worth of ticket sales, it should hurt John Carter because a demographic has been satisfied, just like action junkies were with Act of Valor and women were with the Vow. Just because JC targets everyone, has a gigantic budget and wants to be a blockbuster doesn't mean it'll make any cash at all. The logic deficiency here is so wide, let's not cloud our judgment because we want John Carter to do well. In fact, with Lorax taking families, Jump Street taking teenagers and comic audiences, Hunger Games becoming a sort of phenomenon and Wrath stealing older men, WHO exactly is going to see John Carter? JC wants to be Avatar, but it's in March, seems to be overwhelmed by every other release because it's trying to appeal to everyone but succeeding in none, plus it also looks like an Avatar rip-off and then we've had the public see the re-release of Star Wars where that Wooga monster fellow thing fits right in.In the end, we seem to agree, marketing fucked this movie over, or so it would seem right now, but Neo's logic and reasoning, well no he hasn't reasoned at all, is flawed, and I've said why. This is after all a forum so all opinions should be taken into account and I think lurkers and whoever else should know that that logic makes no sense. We don't want this to be a board of people who have no idea what is decent.

Mmhm.

[kayumanggi]

A moviegoer doesn't confine himself / herself to just one film.

[doctoru2]

I am also talking of OW. Regarding the first blockbuster of the year, it was obviously the Lorax. If John Carter was so big, it should've scared the Lorax away, but it didn't. If you don't consider animation as blockbusters, 300 was not at all demographically diversified either. I took Mountain because that was supposed to be Disney's strongest spring performer back in 09, but it failed, this also after March petered out at an incredible rate. With Sucker Punch, sure, it was niche, but it wanted to be a blockbuster and that's where I draw my comparison. John Carter wants to be a blockbuster, it currently isn't and that is of course a major difference. Basically, not everything IS a blockbuster. Disney wants it to be one, but it looks like a trainwreck right now. I'd love to be wrong, but the Lorax opening to 55m+ has nothing to do with John Carter's ability to open to an equivalent amount. It's like saying, if the Blind Side can make 200m+ then Brothers can too.It's the first big budget release, I counter with, so? No one gives two shits if a release is big budgeted. They see a movie if it's appealing. John Carter seems to have alienated sector after sector. It targets it, and tracking seems to say it has failed to interest anyone. But I'm missing, just like you were, my point. If anything, since the Lorax made $60m worth of ticket sales, it should hurt John Carter because a demographic has been satisfied, just like action junkies were with Act of Valor and women were with the Vow. Just because JC targets everyone, has a gigantic budget and wants to be a blockbuster doesn't mean it'll make any cash at all. The logic deficiency here is so wide, let's not cloud our judgment because we want John Carter to do well. In fact, with Lorax taking families, Jump Street taking teenagers and comic audiences, Hunger Games becoming a sort of phenomenon and Wrath stealing older men, WHO exactly is going to see John Carter? JC wants to be Avatar, but it's in March, seems to be overwhelmed by every other release because it's trying to appeal to everyone but succeeding in none, plus it also looks like an Avatar rip-off and then we've had the public see the re-release of Star Wars where that Wooga monster fellow thing fits right in.In the end, we seem to agree, marketing fucked this movie over, or so it would seem right now, but Neo's logic and reasoning, well no he hasn't reasoned at all, is flawed, and I've said why. This is after all a forum so all opinions should be taken into account and I think lurkers and whoever else should know that that logic makes no sense. We don't want this to be a board of people who have no idea what is decent.

Your logic is very solid and your predictions may become reality.I want to throw up two counter-points: *I* want to see JC. However, I have no interest in "Hunger Games" or "21 JS".JC seems to blend a combination of films (I accept the irony of the original JC material influencing so many other films). But that audience has not been served well in a long time. The re-release of "Phantom Menace" was not it. As it's the first story in the "Star Wars" series, I guess it was appropriate to re-release PM in 3D first, but it's probably also the least loved of the films. Even marketing shied away from the boat loads of what's wrong in the movie (namely Jar Jar and Jake Lloyd). As a result, audiences have not enjoyed a sci-fi, action film with tons of effects in some time."Hunger Games" seems like a repeat of various "Mad Max" type of movies, but with kids. While I can see a younger audience liking this, it holds zero appeal to me. Perhaps reviews and other comments will change my mind, but as of now, the trailers do not appeal to me at all.The TV version of "Jump Street" was a drama. Sure, some slight jokes here and there, but it was not a comedy. It's possible that by turning the film into a comedy it hits a bigger audience - if it's a GOOD comedy. Right now, I've not seen one funny moment and am rather disappointed by the "Police Academy" aspects of the trailers.Will JC break out as a monster hit? Probably not. Disney, of all studios, knows how to market. But they do seem to have lost their way with this one. Not enough of the story was provided - just action. But as "Lorax" appeals to a very different audience, I do feel both films can succeed at the same timel. Will JC break $40M its first weekend? I'm not sure, but of the big films opening in the next few weekends, only JC and "Titans" holds any interest for me. I will accept that I may be the "lone wolf" here, but it's possible that perhaps being older, I have a different desire in my movies. And I'm not sure how many people above 35 or 40 post here.

[Elessar]

I'm not sure, but of the big films opening in the next few weekends, only JC and "Titans" holds any interest for me.I will accept that I may be the "lone wolf" here, but it's possible that perhaps being older, I have a different desire in my movies.

Same here.

[kayumanggi]

It's very interesting to note that JOHN CARTER is significantly ahead of WOTT as per Google Insights is concern. Maybe people do not search for WOTT that much anymore because it's a sequel and they think they don't need to be informed.

[Totem]

Just amazing for The Lorax, managing to open above DM is quite the achievement and with a 60m OW it could comfortably go on to gross 200m if it is recieved well enough by audiences.

[tonytr87]

The fact that they gave the VFX award to Hugo show how bad their taste and bias against big dumb fun movies is. They take that movie as an artform shit way too seriously, and it show's that they're a bunch of egotistical *****. I can't wait for the first REAL award show, that rewards ACTUAL achievement. Until the day.....

You're right, they're biased against blockbusters (Rise of the Apes, Harry Potter, The Dark Knight, Nolan not nominated for Inception, etc)...but they also fail to recognize true "movie as an artform" films (Drive, Shame, Take Shelter, countless others). They're the worst sort of voting body. They like "middlebrow" i.e. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, War Horse, The Artist, The King's Speech, etc.

[SchumacherFTW]

Nikki's just popped up with some analysis and saturday numbers. She's predicting a $32 MILLION saturday for The Lorax!!!!!

Edited March 4, 2012 by Schumacher FTW

[bapi]

And 73 mil. weekend!!!

[fmpro]

Right now, here are my extrapolations for the openers.

The Lorax: 62.98m

17.4m

26.97m (+55%)

18.61m (-31%)

Project X: 18.11m

8.17m

6.37m (-22%)

3.57m (-44%)

Very solid weekend for both films.

Right now were looking at 10-20% more