Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

[sfran43]

 

[MaxAggressor]

@Shawn

 

 

Cheers for the correction.  

 

Edited March 3, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[sfran43]

I could be wrong, but I really don't see it opening with less than $200M.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, sfran43 said:

I could be wrong, but I really don't see it opening with less than $200M.

It's not. 210M is the floor IMO

[MrPink]

I suspect a similar opening to The Last Jedi. But will nest somewhere a bit above TDK.

Edited March 3, 2018 by MrPink

[MovieMan89]

Seriously though, the theater losses for holdovers next weekend will be brutal given having to make room for 11k+ new screens. And then again 2 weeks from now when they will need to make room for 11k+ new ones again. Freed, 15:17, Every Day, and the Oscar movies besides the BP winner are definitely in the most danger. Freed could easily lose well over 1k. 

Edited March 3, 2018 by MovieMan89

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Seriously though, the theater losses for holdovers next weekend will be brutal given having to make room for 11k+ new screens. And then again 2 weeks from now when they will need to make room for 11k+ new ones again. Freed, 15:17, Every Day, and the Oscar movies besides the BP winner are definitely in the most danger. 

Jumanji is going to be on the chopping block too; I doubt it's going to stay at my theater next week

[fabiopazzo2]

5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

I could be wrong, but I really don't see it opening with less than $200M.

235M its too high (in this moment) 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Jumanji is going to be on the chopping block too; I doubt it's going to stay at my theater next week

Yeah, which is a shame because it looks like that may cause it to miss Spider-man after all. And the same goes for TGS and its 20x multi. 

[MaxAggressor]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Jumanji is going to be on the chopping block too;

[WrathOfHan]

This is what I expect my 12plex's slate to be next week:

 

Black Panther x3

A Wrinkle in Time x2

Gringo

The Hurricane Heist

Strangers

Death Wish

Red Sparrow

Game Night

Peter Rabbit

Gone: One Black Panther screen, Annihilation, Every Day, Fifty Shades Freed, Jumanji

 

I could see that third Panther screen being split with more WIT showings or a Shape of Water re-expansion if it wins Picture.

[sfran43]

4 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

235M its too high (in this moment) 

Well, box office pro prediction has it opening at $215M, do you see it opening above or below that number?🤔

Edited March 3, 2018 by sfran43

[MovieMan89]

Speaking of Jumanji, will pass GotG2 today for #4 2017 and the highest grossing film for all 4  of its leads.

[a2k]

After Jumanji and TGS was wondering which run could surprise in 2018 and Christmas came early for us. Filled it with weekend est. The run looks unreal.

 

WEEKEND NUMBER	Avengers: Age of Ultron	The Avengers	Captain America 3	Black Panther
1	$191,271,109 5-3-15 / 1 4,276 / $44,731 - $191,271,109	$207,438,708 5-6-12 / 1 4,349 / $47,698 - $207,438,708	$179,139,142 5-8-16 / 1 4,226 / $42,390 - $179,139,142	$202,003,951 2-18-18 / 1 4,020 / $50,250 - $202,003,951
2	$77,746,929 5-10-15 / 1 4,276 / $18,182 -59.4% $313,402,397	$103,052,274 5-13-12 / 1 4,349 / $23,696 -50.3% $373,071,647	$72,637,142 5-15-16 / 1 4,226 / $17,188 -59.5% $295,966,220	$111,658,835 2-25-18 / 1 4,020 / $27,776 -44.7% $403,613,257
3	$38,859,900 5-17-15 / 3 4,276 / $9,088 -50% $372,030,708	$55,644,102 5-20-12 / 1 4,249 / $13,096 -46% $457,665,517	$32,939,739 5-22-16 / 2 4,226 / $7,795 -54.7% $347,215,892	$63,100,000   -43.5% $498,500,000

[fabiopazzo2]

7 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Well, box office pro prediction has it opening at $215M, do you see it opening above or below that number?🤔

205/215M For now

 

[Cookson]

Box office is doing pretty good right now.

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, which is a shame because it looks like that may cause it to miss Spider-man after all. And the same goes for TGS and its 20x multi. 

No way man. It's 10.7 away after a ~4.3 weekend. At this late stage multipliers are good any way. Needs to add just 2.49x the weekend more to it's cume.

[fabiopazzo2]

TOP 2018 MOVIES Usa

1.	Black Panther	$451,704,037
2.	Fifty Shades Freed	$93,344,460
3.	Peter Rabbit	$76,135,376
4.	Insidious 4	$67,347,895
5.	Maze Runner 3	$56,734,211

 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, a2knet said:

No way man. It's 10.7 away after a ~4.3 weekend. At this late stage multipliers are good any way. Needs to add just 2.49x the weekend more to it's cume.

The next 3 weekends will be rough for its TC though with 12 new wide releases. We've been using NATM as a comparison, however that stops being applicable soon as NATM's late late legs simply aren't feasible today. It played until July and had several sub 10% weekend holds and even weekend increases after weekend 12. That's not going to happen for J. So yeah, if J did keep following NATM, it would be headed for like 413m, but 405 has to be about the ceiling with how it's going to start bleeding screens soon. Going to be very close for SM1, imo. 

[fabiopazzo2]

27 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Well, box office pro prediction has it opening at $215M, do you see it opening above or below that number?🤔

My only problem is the over-prediction for this film. Remember Age of Ultron and Civil War? Many people expected an opening weekend + € 215 million ...Be Careful