Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

[MrFanaticGuy34]

55 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

NATM legs from here on out gets Jumanji 2 to 414.1 million assuming Deadline's 4.2 million weekend estimate holds steady. Spider-Man [2002] is toast. Looking further ahead, J2 will have to collapse 23.5% against NATM's legs to finish behind CA:CW. That would happen only if J2 loses location counts (theaters) at a really fast clip. That is a possibility but it actually hasn't happened even once in J2's DBO run.

 

So far J2 hasn't dropped over 336 theaters in any weekend (there has been 11 of 'em so far) and it's worst theater retention is 89.29% (in 9th weekend against BP's OW). Also, it's worst PTA drop is 28.24%. What an absolutely awesome BO run. It's my favorite one yet.   

That would put it close to Toy Story 3’s $415M DOM.

 

The question is: Will it be a bit below or above that film’s gross?

[commendable]

How is 16.3m not terrible

[Amadeus]

Record breaking february at 999.3m. Highest grosser of feb 2006 was another panther..

 

Year	Total Gross	Change	Movies	Avg.	#1 Movie	Gross	% of Total
2018	$999.3	+27.7%	191	$5.2	Black Panther	$428.8	42.9%
2017	$782.5	-2.1%	180	$4.3	The LEGO Batman Movie	$135.4	17.3%
2016	$799.0	+4.3%	185	$4.3	Deadpool	$287.6	36.0%
2015	$765.9	+9.3%	197	$3.9	Fifty Shades of Grey	$145.0	18.9%
2014	$700.5	+13.3%	197	$3.6	The LEGO Movie	$192.7	27.5%
2013	$618.1	-24.5%	179	$3.5	Identity Thief	$97.7	15.8%
2012	$818.2	+24.1%	193	$4.2	The Vow	$105.0	12.8%
2011	$659.5	-12.6%	193	$3.4	Just Go With It	$79.5	12.0%
2010	$754.8	-1.9%	175	$4.3	Avatar	$110.8	14.7%
2009	$769.3	+10.7%	161	$4.8	Taken	$84.3	11.0%
2008	$694.8	+8.6%	192	$3.6	Hannah Montana	$62.4	9.0%
2007	$639.6	+2.3%	176	$3.6	Ghost Rider	$82.2	12.9%
2006	$625.4	-0.7%	193	$3.2	The Pink Panther (2006)	$61.8	9.9%

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, commendable said:

How is 16.3m not terrible

 

How are you posting a sentence like that in a box office forum without marking it as sarcasm?

[The Futurist]

1 hour ago, MaxAggressor said:

1) Black Panther (DIS), 4,084 theaters (+64)  / $16.3M Fri  (-43%) / 3-day: $62.2M (-44%)/Total: $497.6M/Wk 3

2) Red Sparrow (FOX), 3,056 theaters  / $6.3m Fri (includes $1.2M previews)/3-day: $17.4M /Wk 1

3) Death Wish (MGM), 2,847 theaters  / $4.3m Fri (includes $650K previews)/3-day: $12M /Wk 1

4) Game Night (NL/WB), 3,502 theaters (+14) / $3m Fri (-45%)/3-day: $10.45M (-39%)/Total: $33.3M/Wk 2

5) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,607 theaters (-100)  / $2M Fri (-28%) /3-day: $9.1M (-28%) /Total: $82.1M/Wk 4

6) Annihilation (PAR), 2,012 theaters  / $1.5M Fri (-61%)/3-day: $5.4M (-51%)/Total: $20.4M/Wk 2

7)   Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,313 theaters (-206) / $950K Fri (-27%)/3-day: $4.2M (-25%)/Total:$392.9M/ Wk 11

8) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 2,614 theaters (-651) / $1.1 M Fri (-52%) /3-day: $3.4M(-52%)/Total: $95.7M /Wk 4

 

9) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 1,407 theaters (-194) / $663K Fri (-27%) / 3-day: $2.5M (-26%)/Total: $164.4M/Wk 11

10)  Every Day (OR), 1,669 theaters  / $458K Fri (-58%) /3-day: $1.5M (-51%)/Total: $5.2M/Wk 2

#Justice_For_Phantom_Thread

[MaxAggressor]

11 minutes ago, commendable said:

How is 16.3m not terrible

16.3m on Friday represents a 143% increase from the Thursday number. I thought the Friday increase will be closer to that of Deadpool's 3rd Friday which was +130.4% w.r.t it's 2nd Thursday. So 16.3m is definitely a very good number for BP and sets it up nicely for a great weekend total.

 

Your initial 20m+ figure was way too high. (16.3-16.5)m is very good and with a strong Saturday bump and a better than expected Sunday drop, BP can still reach 64.9m+ to sneak past the half a billion mark.

Edited March 3, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[RRA]

29 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Is it not? It doesn't matter if it opened to 17M, to 70M or to 7M: 39% drop 2nd weekend is great, period.

It’s meh considering clearly the # of screens it got, but again it’s preferable obviously to a post-release collapse 

[bladels]

27 minutes ago, commendable said:

How is 16.3m not terrible

[The Futurist]

I want some more :

 

Untitled Marvel Movie (May 2020) BV 5/1/20

Untitled Marvel Movie (July 2020) BV 7/31/20

Untitled Marvel Movie (November 2020) BV 11/6/20

Untitled Marvel I (2021) BV 5/7/21

Untitled Marvel II (2021) BV 7/30/21

Untitled Marvel III (2021) BV 11/5/21

Untitled Marvel I (2022) BV 2/18/22

Untitled Marvel II (2022) BV 5/6/22

Untitled Marvel III (2022) BV 7/29/22

 

Bon Appétit !

 

 

 

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

I want some more :

 

Untitled Marvel Movie (May 2020) BV 5/1/20

Untitled Marvel Movie (July 2020) BV 7/31/20

Untitled Marvel Movie (November 2020) BV 11/6/20

Untitled Marvel I (2021) BV 5/7/21

Untitled Marvel II (2021) BV 7/30/21

Untitled Marvel III (2021) BV 11/5/21

Untitled Marvel I (2022) BV 2/18/22

Untitled Marvel II (2022) BV 5/6/22

Untitled Marvel III (2022) BV 7/29/22

 

Bon Appétit !

 

 

 

Sticking to only 3 movies per year.

 

Smart.

[SteveJaros]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

I wonder how much more Jumanji will make?

 

Jumanji is actually going to make $400m DOM. If someone had told me this 75 days ago, I would have spilled every beverage in my house. To me, that makes it even more of a story than "Jedi" or even "Black Panther". Even Panther's amazing results are more 'expected' than what Jumanji has done.

 

 

Edited March 3, 2018 by SteveJaros

[baumer]

28 minutes ago, RRA said:

It’s meh considering clearly the # of screens it got, but again it’s preferable obviously to a post-release collapse 

 

Careful. Youre close to be labeled a troll. We don't care for trolls here. 

[La Binoche]

Red Sparrow opening with less than Atomic Blonde despite costing over twice as much. 

 

JLaw collecting them back-to-back flops. 

 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Jumanji is actually going to make $400m DOM. If someone had told me this 75 days ago, I would have spilled every beverage in my house. To me, that makes it even more of a story than "Jedi" or even "Black Panther". Even Panther's amazing results are more 'expected' than what Jumanji has done.

 

 

I've missed so much of the box office that I didn't even know Jumanji was gonna make $400M. I saw what it made OW and then was like hmm this will have a decent run but not to FOUR HUNDRED MILLION. I mean 7 months ago I wasn't sure how Black Panther would do. Like I knew it would probably do $300M+ for sure at the time but leading up to it you got the sense it was getting bigger and bigger. Even a month out you'd get the sense it was going to be huge no matter what especially looking at presales and stuff. I never ever expected Jumanji to get to where it's at even after it opened lol 

[filmlover]

Game Night should come close to $60M in the end. Good little run.

[Alli]

Shit opening for RS, but JLaw will be fine. Apparently she has a new DOR movie in the works. Get ready for another Oscar nom/win

[a2k]

2 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

1) Black Panther (DIS), 4,084 theaters (+64)  / $16.3M Fri  (-43%) / 3-day: $62.2M (-44%)/Total: $497.6M/Wk 3

Had a brain-freeze and was about to type 'goes over Jumanji and Gotg2' and then realized that I was regurgitating the thought from last weekend and now it's added nearly 100 in last 7 days. Too epic to digest.

 

2) Red Sparrow (FOX), 3,056 theaters  / $6.3m Fri (includes $1.2M previews)/3-day: $17.4M /Wk 1

1.2  previews + 5.1 true friday. Dead Sparrow.

 

5) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,607 theaters (-100)  / $2M Fri (-28%) /3-day: $9.1M (-28%) /Total: $82.1M/Wk 4

That's a great hold. Again sub-30%. Gnomeo fell 46% for 7.2 and 84 cume. After 9.1 weekend and 82.1 cume, the better trending makes 100 more likely.

 

7)   Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,313 theaters (-206) / $950K Fri (-27%)/3-day: $4.2M (-25%)/Total:$392.9M/ Wk 11

Only 11 away from SM1 to become Sony's biggest unadjusted dom.

 

8) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 2,614 theaters (-651) / $1.1 M Fri (-52%) /3-day: $3.4M(-52%)/Total: $95.7M /Wk 4

Shades2 was -54% down for 3.6. Added 4.6 more to it's run. This needs 4.3 for 100 and 99+ is locked at least.

 

9) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 1,407 theaters (-194) / $663K Fri (-27%) / 3-day: $2.5M (-26%)/Total: $164.4M/Wk 11

2017 dom chart gets one more 170s movie.

 

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Red Sparrow opening with less than Atomic Blonde despite costing over twice as much. 

 

JLaw collecting them back-to-back flops. 

 

I know Jlaw collected $15-20M for Red Sparrow but after seeing both Red Sparrow and Atomic Blonde, I have no idea why RS cost more. Like take away Jlaw's salary and it's still at $50M versus Atomic Blonde's $30M despite Atomic Blonde having way more action. I guess David Leitch really knows how to bring the action without it costing a fortune. Makes me hopeful for the guy in the red spandex that comes out in May. 

[ZeeSoh]

57 minutes ago, commendable said:

How is 16.3m not terrible

Are you freaking kidding me. Its on track to have the 3rd highest 3rd weekend ever behind only TFA and Avatar and way above Avengers and JW. Its also on track to match Avengers 1 adjusted 3rd weekend and you think the number is terrible? Get Outta here

Edited March 3, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[ThiagoMaia]

3 hours ago, LaughingEvans said:

Mate, it's Saturday morning, not even Odin has the Saturday numbers. The 16.5 refers to Friday number. 

It was a joke with the title that had Sat instead of Friday by mistake.