ThomasNicole Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 16 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said: Just saw the update from Guru. K:SI did exactly 2.5 times it's OS OW (excluding final totals of China & Japan, both of which saw later theatrical releases). I'm assuming RPO will have slightly better legs than K:SI due to lack of huge competition (maybe Rampage will provide a stiff fight but it ain't BATB & GITS is a bigger OS player than AQP/Blockers). So [2.6 x (128-61.7)] = 172.38m. This is the OW of 85% of the whole OS market so 100% of the marketplace gets the total to 202.8m. The avg. of 172.38m & 202.8m is 187.59m. It can increase depending upon the reception in Japan. Domestic - 125m OS-China - 187.6m China - 200m WW Total - (125+187.6+200) = 512.6m. Could do much better than 2.6x OS-Ch... RPO have holidays to messed up the os numbers a little Kong have a normal OS weekend Edited April 1, 2018 by ThomasNicole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasNicole Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, PanaMovie said: OS-CH 235 CH 190 OS: 425M DOM: 135M WW: 560m China probably will do closer to $ 230-250M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Exactly This 128 mln week-end looks really wierd, especially after 27 mln OS-China (as Deadline said) on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said: China probably will do closer to $ 230-250M 200M is more realistic imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 50 minutes ago, kswiston said: China's estimate for that number was about $62M, so $66M for elsewhere. Honestly, I think that someone at WB messed up the number, because it doesn't make sense. Friday was $28M and change overseas. The film made money on Wed/Thurs. How would Sat+Sun be under $30M combined given that? EDIT: Wed+Thurs overseas was $13.7M. Friday was $28.2M. So WB has overseas making around $24M for Sat AND Sun. Seems impossible to me, even with holidays messing things up. 24 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said: Huh. It does seem iffy. Wed+Thu brought in 13.7m. Friday was [108.6 - (27.2+38.8+13.7)] = 28.9m. So the estimates for Sat. & Sun combined are [(128-61.7) - (28.9+13.7)] = 23.7m. That feels low tbh. All the sites are reporting 128m for the OS OW. They can't all be wrong at the same time. So either the schedule is screwing with normal BO proceedings or there must be something we're missing?? You guys have to subtract the China gross from the Friday gross and it will make sense. Wed+Thur - 13.7 OS Fri - 28.2 OS-Ch Fri - 13.6 OS Total - 128 China - 62 OS-Ch - 128-62= 66 OS-Ch total till Friday - 13.7+13.6 = 27.3 Sat+Sun - 66-27.3 = 38.7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godzilla Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Nice opening! $500 million should be the target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kswiston Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 6 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: You guys have to subtract the China gross from the Friday gross and it will make sense. Wed+Thur - 13.7 OS Fri - 28.2 OS-Ch Fri - 13.6 OS Total - 128 China - 62 OS-Ch - 128-62= 66 OS-Ch total till Friday - 13.7+13.6 = 27.3 Sat+Sun - 66-27.3 = 38.7 The 28.2M on Friday was already minus China, unless Deadline royally messed up. Deadline reported $109M worldwide on Saturday. That included $39M from Fri-Sat in China, but was the worldwide total outside of China as of Friday, subtracting that. Domestic was around 27M for that report. Edit: I mean, it's possible that Deadline double counted Friday in China or something. But $13.6M on Friday also seems really low off of a $10M Thursday. Edited April 1, 2018 by kswiston Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Germany and Japan are yet to release so OS-Ch should account for that. IMO Germany could do 15-20 and Japan 10-15. 225 China 135 Dom 185 CurrentOS-Ch (~66 ow * 2.8) 17.5 Germany 12.5 Japan = 575 Looking at it's trending over the OW and the positive reception everywhere, I think 575 ww is conservative. 600-650 seems realistic atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 32 minutes ago, a2knet said: 600-650 seems realistic atm. I still think it can't get 600 mln. China, yes, great run, but other world- not impressed numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manu Delpech Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Japan is going to do so much more than 10-15, I mean, it's Japan, the crowd at the livestream they did with Ernie Cline a few months back was just eating up every reference dropped. It should be big. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonwo Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 13 hours ago, KeepItU25071906 said: I still think it can't get 600 mln. China, yes, great run, but other world- not impressed numbers. It's done well in many places, it's not superhero numbers but I don't think anyone was expecting superhero numbers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 23 hours ago, Manu Delpech said: Japan is going to do so much more than 10-15, I mean, it's Japan, the crowd at the livestream they did with Ernie Cline a few months back was just eating up every reference dropped. It should be big. how high do you think it can fly in Japan optimistically? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Would The martian be a possible maximum high ceiling ? That did a nice 26.9m in Japan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 RPO is only one week from Infinity war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said: RPO is only one week from Infinity war. Would that be nearly as much of an issue in the Japan Market than in most other. Civil War was Japan #17 biggest movie of the year, Ultron was #15, Avengers #9. Last year Strange: #26 Thor: #47 Guardian 2: #48 Seem a bit on the declining side and not the monster it is Domestic to start with. Edited April 4, 2018 by Barnack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said: RPO is only one week from Infinity war. it's more close to Detective Conan.Marvel is not that big in Japan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, bangbingchan said: it's more close to Detective Conan.Marvel is not that big in Japan. TA2 OW> 800M yen, quite big actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, Barnack said: Would that be nearly as much of an issue in the Japan Market than in most other. Civil War was Japan #17 biggest movie of the year, Ultron was #15, Avengers #9. Last year Strange: #26 Thor: #47 Guardian 2: #48 I think they target same audience. My prediction RPO 20-25M TA3 25-30M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said: TA2 OW> 800M yen, quite big actually. Not bigger than Detective Conan actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said: I think they target same audience. Oh yeah that should be really true too. 20-25m would also be my feeling, Martian having a bit more universal appeal. Edited April 4, 2018 by Barnack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...