Weekend Thread: WKND #BoxOffice - APR 20-22:#AQuietPlace $22M/$132.4M#Rampage $21M/$66.6M#IFeelPretty $16.2M#SuperTroopers $14.7M#TruthOrDare $7.9M/$30.4M pg 24

[a2k]

20.1 weekend for 65.7

imo the minimum Rampage will add is 20.1*1.5 = 30.2 for 65.7 + 30.2 = 95.9

Needs 1.7x for 100.

[druv10]

22 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

THIS MOVIE...

 

 

Lol, Disney with 47% Sunday drop. They're doing it on purpose, for 3 straight Sunday's they've estimated 45% drop and each time they underestimated by 15% or more.

[sfran43]

Under 15% drop!

 

[sfran43]

9 minutes ago, Sliver Legion said:

Not totally impossible for BP to be around 4M next weekend and slightly edge out Blockers, RPO, ToD, ST2 for top 5. Not what I would predict, but the drops involved aren’t totally unreasonable.

How soft/hard it'll drop next weekend will depend on how many screens it loses!

[MovieMan89]

31 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

THIS MOVIE...

 

 

Good thing Panther's got them claws, cause this movie's a beast. 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

How soft/hard it'll drop next weekend will depend on how many screens it loses!

Yeah, definitely a hugely important variable. I know Cinderella lost 30% of its theaters on AoU weekend but dropped 1% partially off of drive-in double features, but I think between the weather and the week earlier IW might have fewer drive-ins. On the other hand, there’s a lot more reason to see Black Panther alongside IW than Cinderella alongside Ultron — if even .5% of people seeing IW over the weekend decided to go to a Panther showing right before it would have a humongous impact.

[JB33]

Black Panther...we aren't worthy. What a run! What an event! What a movie!

[sfran43]

 

[MovieMan89]

I'm 99% sold on an increase for BP next weekend. The question is how much? 

[KeepItU25071906]

37 minutes ago, a2knet said:

20.1 weekend for 65.7

imo the minimum Rampage will add is 20.1*1.5 = 30.2 for 65.7 + 30.2 = 95.9

Needs 1.7x for 100.

Rampasge needs to be strong agaibst Avengers. it's gonna be hard.

[LonePirate]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm 99% sold on an increase for BP next weekend. The question is how much? 

It surely has to be at the top of the list of films to receive spillover business from AIW when people show up to the theater and AIW is sold out.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

It surely has to be at the top of the list of films to receive spillover business from AIW when people show up to the theater and AIW is sold out.

Not only that, but I could see tons of MCU diehards planning BP/IW double features on their own. It doesn't even need official drive in double features. 

[KP1025]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not only that, but I could see tons of MCU diehards planning BP/IW double features on their own. It doesn't even need official drive in double features. 

I assume this is the reason for BP's very soft drop this weekend. It's the last chance before IW opens, so I imagine lots of people must be getting caught up on BP since it indirectly ties into the storyline.

[MovieMan89]

@baumer

Since you locked my BP club while other clubs with higher odds against them remain open, what exactly do you plan to do if it suceeda since you let such personal bias interfere with your decision? Now if there was a new forum rule being enforced by the mods around here that clubs with lower odds are no longer allowed, then I would get it. But there is a IW over $1b dom club currently open and you left a freakin Samson over Black Panther club Open. Now THAT was impossible. I 100% bet my entire life on my BP club coming far closer to reality than that one did. And of course there’s no precedent for it because there is no precedent for a franchise event film opening when another event film in the same franchise is still going strong at the box office. This is completely new territory. Asking me to provide another example of it is BS because this situation has never happened before.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

@baumer

Since you locked my BP club while other clubs with higher odds against them remain open, what exactly do you plan to do if it suceeda since you let such personal bias interfere with your decision? Now if there was a new forum rule being enforced by the mods around here that clubs with lower odds are no longer allowed, then I would get it. But there is a IW over $1b dom club currently open and you left a freakin Samson over Black Panther club Open. Now THAT was impossible. I 100% bet my entire life on my BP club coming far closer to reality than that one did. And of course there’s no precedent for it because there is no precedent for a franchise event film opening when another event film in the same franchise is still going strong at the box office. This is completely new territory. Asking me to provide another example of it is BS because this situation has never happened before.

 

@Water Bottle told me to lock it.

 

But since you want to be unreasonable, then here is my response....

 

Your thread is perhaps the most ridiculous club I have seen in all my years at Mojo, World of KJ, whatever site I went to before Shawn opened this one, and now this one.  It defies the mechanics of box office.  If I could insert the Billy Madison part here I would, but there's no point, because that's over kill.  It won't happen, it's never happened and to think it can honestly shows me that you are either trolling or have no grasp of the box office.  I know the latter isn't true, so I can only assume you are being a troll.  

 

So the thread is locked, partly for your own protection, from yourself.  You'll thank me later.

 

Oh, and I don't know anything about the Samson over BP club.  I haven't seen this one so I didn't leave it open.  I don't live at the site, movieman, I do have a life outside of here.

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 

 

Oh, and I don't know anything about the Samson over BP club.  I haven't seen this one so I didn't leave it open.  I don't live at the site, movieman, I do have a life outside of here.

A ridiculous club that somehow nobody locked, now that I am seeing. I am barely online nowadays tho. I wasn't even aware of this club. Hell, I don't even know what movie is Samson.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

A ridiculous club that somehow nobody locked, now that I am seeing. I am barely online nowadays tho. I wasn't even aware of this club. Hell, I don't even know what movie is Samson.

 

Where is it?  I can't find it.

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

@Water Bottle told me to lock it.

 

But since you want to be unreasonable, then here is my response....

 

Your thread is perhaps the most ridiculous club I have seen in all my years at Mojo, World of KJ, whatever site I went to before Shawn opened this one, and now this one.  It defies the mechanics of box office.  If I could insert the Billy Madison part here I would, but there's no point, because that's over kill.  It won't happen, it's never happened and to think it can honestly shows me that you are either trolling or have no grasp of the box office.  I know the latter isn't true, so I can only assume you are being a troll.  

 

So the thread is locked, partly for your own protection, from yourself.  You'll thank me later.

 

Oh, and I don't know anything about the Samson over BP club.  I haven't seen this one so I didn't leave it open.  I don't live at the site, movieman, I do have a life outside of here.

Ok then this is directed at both of you:

 

It's not a troll club, I wouldn't have gone out of my way to breakdown how it could happen in the OP if it were. I always give breakdowns for how a club I make can happen, unlike many clubs made here where people tend to just say: "I think this can happen, who's in!!!"  

 

It was made in the same vein as my Mouse or Drought one: high risk, high reward. I like those kind of clubs, they're far more interesting whether I fail or succeed. For the record, I'd be willing to put money on the line BP is no lower than #4 next weekend, but that simply wasn't interesting enough of a club when the possibility is there for even higher. And why are you assuming something like AQP can't drop more than 60%? We've seen countless films plummet beyond that in the face of a huge opener, even ones with good WOM. Plenty of variables at play here that can make it a reality and not impossible. 

 

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Where is it?  I can't find it.

 

[narniadis]

I think one major difference was (if I remember right) was that Slambros club was more of a haha, good joke kind of thing instead of the serious and absolutely unrealistic club being proposed.... I cannot imagine why some folks seem hell-bent on the entire boxoffice outside of Avengers dropping 65%+ it IS NOT HAPPENING.

 

The last time a film opened in the 250m range the only films in the top 15 dropping +60% were Spectre (Weekend 7), In the Heart of Sea (2) and The night before (5) AND there were 5 total new releases in the top 15 as well....

 

to imagine that A Quiet Place and Rampage - both films showing decent word of mouth are going to behave like films in their 5th and 7th frame OR as horribly received as ITHOTS was is lunacy...