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Weekend Thread | Avengers 2nd Weekend - 114.774 only a 21.5% drop on Sunday

By Sheikh, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

36.8, see when SRG comes out later today
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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

I don’t think that this chart is particularly flattering for IW and I don’t believe that if it does an extra 1-2 million this weekend changes anything.

Fair enough. There is always a subjective element to interpreting box office statistics and such. I will also put it another way though.

 

The overall weekend drop for the second weekend for huge and highly anticipated blockbuster films can disguise what are actually good drops Saturday-to-Saturday and Sunday-to-Sunday, because of the large preview grosses that inflate the opening weekend Friday. I mentioned this earlier in the week when I was discussing my predicted final multiplier range for Infinity War. Huge preview grosses often inevitably make for a larger second weekend drop because of the significant Friday-to-Friday drop.

 

So, if we take a look at Infinity War's Fri-to-Fri, Sat-to-Sat, and Sun-to-Sun drops with estimates, we see:

 

Fri: -70.4%

Sat: -43.2%

Sun: -50.3% (this could be sub-50% too with actuals, as the Sunday is merely the studios projection)

 

The Fri-to-Fri drop skews the overall weekend drop, thanks to large previews and the new era of including preview grosses into the weekend gross.

 

We see this with other big blockbusters too:

 

Age of Ultron: FRI: -74.9%, SAT: -40.1%, SUN: -54.9%

Civil War: FRI: -74%, SAT: -47.8%, SUN: -50.4%

 

Compare these to blockbuster films that had smaller previews that consisted of a smaller share of their opening Friday gross (22-23% share as opposed to ~33% with the above films):

 

The Avengers: FRI: -63.8%, SAT: -38.3%, SUN: -45.8%

Jurassic World: Fri: -64.5%, SAT: -43.8%, SUN: -32.9% (Father's Day)

 

It seems to me then that large preview grosses (for hugely anticipated films with large opening days as is) often inevitably lead to a larger second weekend drop. Infinity War made $106.3M in its opening day, the second largest opening day of all time, and of which 37% was from previews. That opening day is behind only The Force Awakens (a film which I think can only be understood as an outlier, given the franchise, the years of pent up nostalgia, the perfect December holiday calendar, etc).

 

This is all to say that taken as a whole, I think Infinity War's second weekend gross (and drop) are good. Maybe they could have been better, but maybe not. This is the highly anticipated third film in a series we're talking about. But, honestly, what do I know. I pull out stats all the time, but it doesn't mean I'm right. Sometimes I'm a little too numbers focused. The beauty of box office is that there is gut, intuition, intangibles, etc, involved.

 

Peace,

Mike

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
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1 hour ago, MikeQ said:

Sounds like Sunday is doing the heavy lifting, and so the weekend gross will be higher than estimated. :)  

 

Peace,

Mike

RTH liked the above post of mine. :) 

 

Peace,

Mike

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
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If IW’s weekdays were “normal,” this weekend is very solid relative to last weekend but a tad disspointing compared to the weekdays.    

 

With a hypothesis that “IW maxed out capacity on Sat and Sun dramatically more than any previous schooltime opener, artificially inflating its first week,” then this is a great weekend relative both to the weekdays and the OW.   

 

As I think about it further, the latter hypothesis seems increasingly likely to be a contributing factor to some degree, so with a actuals a couple million off the current estimate thanks to a strong Sunday I will be 100% contented.

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
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With a 37M Sun, 115 weekend, it ends up 206 short of Titanic, and needs a 2.79 multi off this weekend to pass it (quite likely). Needs 3.15 off the weekend for 700, which is definitely possible, but also quite missable.

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