Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - JW: $60.91M - I2: 46.42M - Sicario: $19.00M - Uncle Drew: $15.24M

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

Uncle Drew

- 1.1m previews

~ 2,200 theaters

= approx. $500 avg,/theater  

 

additional 3.9m Friday required to make 5.0m full day.

 

$3,900,000 Friday with 2,742 theaters is $1,422 per theater average.  This would be about +2.84x the average of the previews.  

At $9.16 avg. ticket price with $1,422 per theater average, you get 54.6 purchases per location Thursday night.  

A 3.9m Friday is 155 purchases/location +2.84x

Or just +100 over Thursday which is what Sicario could be looking at.

 

I'm gonna guess 4.9m Friday for now.  13.77 weekend.  

 

 

 

[Rebeccas]

Just now, baumer said:

 

But Sicario doubled that.  So, now what?

Okay maybe John Wick Chapter 2 works better as it's also an R rated sequel. That did $2.2m and opened to $30m, so if we apply that then Sicario 2 would do mid to high 20s?

[Nova]

Just now, baumer said:

 

But Sicario doubled that.  So, now what?

I think $20M+ should happen to be honest. I know Sicario is a sequel but like it’s not like it would have that much up front demand. That $2M preview number is excellent for it imo And a mid-teens OW would be too low given the preview number so it should get into the $20M range. 

 

I watched the first one last night and loved it so I’ll be seeing the sequel sometime this weekend 

[dxmatrixdt]

Sicario: Day of the Soldado

 

$2,000,000 from 2,669 theaters.

$749 per theater average

81.8 purchases per location at $9.16 avg

 

200 purchases/location Friday would be 2.44x Thursday's avg. and with 3,055 theaters gives 5.6m/7.6m Friday.  16.90/18.90 weekend.

Edited June 29, 2018 by mathemetrics

[dxmatrixdt]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

@mathemetrics called these preview numbers in the tracking thread. Good job on being spot on! 

 

 

I got lucky by rounding to 2 and 1.  lol.

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Okay maybe John Wick Chapter 2 works better as it's also an R rated sequel. That did $2.2m and opened to $30m, so if we apply that then Sicario 2 would do mid to high 20s?

 

Well, JW2 opened in 3113 theatres.  If Sicario 2 were to get the same average of $9777, then it would do 26 million.  Way too high of course, just hope it hits 20.

[baumer]

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

 

 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O0sNH_An1oCqxZQo0hd1v6lq0KTw1uCODh4_UflRA8Y/edit#gid=1884622349

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well, JW2 opened in 3113 theatres.  If Sicario 2 were to get the same average of $9777, then it would do 26 million.  Way too high of course, just hope it hits 20.

Sicario 2 is officially opening in 3,055 theaters according to BOM so it’s theater count isn’t far off from John Wick 2. 

 

So give it John Wick 2’s average and it does around 29.8M. 

 

Looking at other similar movies and I don’t see how it misses $20M. In fact I’m giving it a $25-30M range for the OW now. It’s a movie that tracking appears to have completely missed on. 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Sicario 2 is officially opening in 3,055 theaters according to BOM so it’s theater count isn’t far off from John Wick 2. 

 

So give it John Wick 2’s average and it does around 29.8M. 

 

Looking at other similar movies and I don’t see how it misses $20M. In fact I’m giving it a $25-30M range for the OW now. It’s a movie that tracking appears to have completely missed on. 

 

Yes, but we don't know what that 2 million means.  The studio is estimating a 12 million weekend.  Tracking suggests 15 million.  I just hope it opens to more than 20 million.  

[Damianport1]

That's unbelieveable number from Sicario 2

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Yes, but we don't know what that 2 million means.  The studio is estimating a 12 million weekend.  Tracking suggests 15 million.  I just hope it opens to more than 20 million.  

To me that $2M means that so far tracking is wrong. It happens sometimes for movies like this. I mean come on Baumer lol You know it’s not making only another $10M or $13M for the FSS 

[La Binoche]

Sicario has a suprisingly strong fanbase. I know people who couldn't wait for the sequel. 

[baumer]

Just now, Nova said:

To me that $2M means that so far tracking is wrong. It happens sometimes for movies like this. I mean come on Baumer lol You know it’s not making only another $10M or $13M for the FSS 

 

I hope you are right.  I was told by three members here that 20 million was "never going to happen" "not this kind of movie" "first one opened to 12 million why would this do 20?"

 

So believe me, I want it to do 20 million.  

[Rebeccas]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Yes, but we don't know what that 2 million means.  The studio is estimating a 12 million weekend.  Tracking suggests 15 million.  I just hope it opens to more than 20 million.  

Yeah, I don't know what we can draw from this as we get very few older male skewing violent sequels. Maybe The 15:17 to Paris would've been a useful comp but that didn't do Thursday previews lmao oh well.

[dxmatrixdt]

I have a sheet with the cinemascores.  Action Point got a C+ and was the first one in a while.  Usually cinemscore.com stops featuring movies after a few months and at that point, there was no C's in the column.  Then the next week, Hereditary set the new benchmark with a D+.

 

Nothing beyond trailer views, RT scores, and these forums, in regards to information on these two new films, I am feeling B for Sicario 2 and A- for Uncle Drew.  However, I was feeling B- for Hereditary with its OW which started this list.  (also, the B- for Gods of Egypt was pretty epic)

 

Spoiler

Cinemascores for major releases.

Black Panther - A+ 
Imagine - A+ 
Incredibles - A+
Love - A+ 
  
12 Strong - A 
Avengers - A 
Deadpool - A 
Miracle Season - A 
Paddington - A 
Sgt. Stubby - A 

 

Acrimony - A- 
Book Club - A- 
Jurassic World - A-
God's Not Dead - A- 
Overboard - A- 
Midnight Sun - A- 
Peter Rabbit - A- 
Rampage - A- 
RP1 - A- 
Solo - A- 
  
50 Shades - B+ 
AQP - B+ 
Death Wish - B+ 
Den of Thieves - B+ 
Every Day - B+ 
Game Night - B+ 
I Feel Pretty - B+ 
Maze Runner - B+ 
Oceans Eight - B+ 
Proud Mary - B+ 
Sherlock Gnomes - B+ 
Super Troopers - B+ 
Superfly - B+
Tag - B+
  
Adrift - B 
Blockers - B 
Breaking In - B 
Chappaquiddick - B 
Commuter - B 
Early Man - B 
Life of Party - B 
Pacific Rim - B 
Red Sparrow - B 
Tomb Raider - B 
Wrinkle in Time - B 
  
15:17 to Paris - B- 
Bad Samaritan - B- 
Hurricane Heist - B- 
Insidious 4 - B- 
Truth or Dare - B- 
Unsane - B- 
Winchester - B- 
  
Action Point - C+ 
Gringo - C+ 
  
Annihilation - C 
Strangers: Prey - C 
  
Hotel Artemis - C- 
  
Hereditary - D+ 
  
these are unreported: 
Forever My Girl 
Isle of Dogs 
Paul, Apostle 
Samson 
Traffik 
Tully 
Upgrade 

 

Edited June 29, 2018 by mathemetrics

[a2k]

17.5 Friday (+53.5% from 11.4 Thu) would be good enough for JW2 to have "only" a 60-61% 2nd weekend drop (JW1 fell 49% but with FD Sunday hold of -2%). Hoping it's closer to 18.

[Maxmoser3]

RT’s audience scores don’t reflect anything on boxoffice.

 

Solo is at 65% and that film is flopping.

 

but either way for Sicario 2 and Uncle Drew, those numbers are actually good. So high teens to even $20 million+ could happen maybe.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I hope you are right.  I was told by three members here that 20 million was "never going to happen" "not this kind of movie" "first one opened to 12 million why would this do 20?"

 

So believe me, I want it to do 20 million.  

I think it will. The first one was excellent and I’d actually never seen it until last night. It was so good that I’ve made plans to see the sequel this weekend. Members on this forum, myself included, tend to be blinded by movies they’re interested in or not interested in. Yes the original only opened to $12M but it’s acquired viewers throughout the years who haven’t seen it in theaters similar to John Wick. Lastly when you open as “low” as $12M it’s not all too hard to see giant increases in the sequel if the original is beloved. Much easier to see bigger bumps when the OW is lower but most members are accustomed to sequels of $100M+ openers which is a lot harder to see a big jump and thus why they may think a jump from $12M to $20M can’t be done when in reality it can be 

[AJG]

I still think that Uncle Drew will outdo Sicario this weekend. I can feel it.

[Rebeccas]

Seems like the comparison of choice for Sicario 2 is Den of Thieves which made $15m OW off a 950K preview..