Weekend Thread: | Estimates (per BOM) ~ M:I-F 35M, DCR 25.003M, TSWDM 12.35M, MM!HWGA 9.09M, TE2 8.83M, HT3:SV 8.2M, AMatW 6.188M, TDM 5.8M

[Ryan Reynolds]

3rd update Friday PM after midday post: The only film that moviegoers care about this weekend is Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout which is landing a great estimated second weekend of $34.8M, with a great hold of -43% (besting Rogue Nation‘s -49%) and closing in on a 10-day stateside cume of $124.2M.

 

Most of the competition looks to be missing its tracking marks, a result one rival distrib boss called “The dog days of August.” The truth is we’re not seeing a DC or Marvel title here, or some other big four-quad movie because Fallout has all the Imax screens, and no one will brave this month of back-to-school without ’em.

In all fairness to Disney, the were seeing Christopher Robin in the $20M range, while most tracking services had the pic in the low-to-mid $30Ms. With an estimated $26.4M for the weekend and a solid A CinemaScore to counter that squishy 67% fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, Disney probably is content with the results of this live action feature extension of their $6 billion Winnie-the-Pooh universe, and not just because it’s exceeding the opening of its previous August animated feature-turned-live actioner, Pete’s Dragon ($21.5M, A CinemaScore, and 3.5X multiple of $76.2M). One rival studio executive snarked that the slowdown in the pic’s opening stemmed from the studio positioning the film more toward adults than hand-holders. However, we’ll see how much this spikes tomorrow from matinees. What’s clear is that, small children aside, the opening for Christopher Robin will outstrip the entire global cume of the last animated take on the bear-stuffed-with-fluff seven years ago, Winnie the Pooh, which only made $33.1M. So, right there, it shows that there was mainstream interest here for Disney’s Hook-take on Pooh.

 

Social Media observer RelishMix noticed that the oline response to Christopher Robin had”fans of Pooh dabbing their eyes and putting hands on their hearts just watching the trailers.  The film seems to have touched a nerve with sentimental moviegoers, who yearn for the days of their childhood.  They want to share these feelings with their own kids and grandparents – or, some insist they’ll see the film alone if they must.  Ewan McGregor and Hayley Atwell get a notable portion of discussion, as do specific characters like Pooh, Eeyore and all the pals in the Wood.” RelishMix says that the 240.8M social media universe across all platforms is strong and exceeds the average reach for a live action family film which is 189M. Average daily YouTube views for the top clips are 33,7K, which is also ahead of the standard 27,6K views. The movie’s official Facebook page is earning about 800 new fans daily, but that doesn’t count all the new fans for Pooh, Piglet and the other individual character pages that Disney has curated.  “If Christopher Robin has an Achilles heel, it’s that it’s viral rate (EOR) is currently at a rate of 22:1, which is behind the usual 38:1 for a family film,” says RelishMix.

The Spy Who Dumped Me with $11M-$13M instead of more mid-teens with Fox’s YA feature adaptation The Darkest Minds pretty much arriving in the high single digit area were tracking had it, between $6M-8M. Note Christopher Robin‘s weekend is close to Peter Rabbit‘s 3-day of $25M, and currently higher than Disney’s live-action Pete’s Dragon which brought in $21.5M. August isn’t going to get any prettier in terms of product, not until New Line’s The Nun on Sept. 7, and, man, kids are going to start going back to school, which will further ratchet business down. Even Dinesh D’Souza’s Death of a Nation is lighter as of right now, looking at an estimated $2M-$2.5M instead of the $3M where forecasts had it. Despite the ho-hum of it all, it might just wind up to be a better weekend than a year ago when Sony/Media Rights Capital’s The Dark Tower led all films with $19.1M for a $122.7M weekend for all films.

 

https://deadline.com/2018/08/tom-cruise-mila-kunis-box-office-mission-impossible-fallout-christopher-robin-spy-who-dumped-me-1202439507/

Edited August 4, 2018 by Ryan Reynolds

[Alli]

still no friday numbers. WTF deadline

[Ryan Reynolds]

MI2  franchise record may finally go down

[Biggestgeekever]

Damn that'd be a great weekend hold for Fallout. If the loss of IMAX next weekend doesn't affect it too much, it should definitely be a new franchise record and top Solo and Ant-Man and the Wasp for #5 of the summer.

[MovieMan89]

Amazing for MI6. Puts it nearly 20m ahead of RN through the same point. Would be great if it could leg its way past War of the Worlds. Really want it to be Cruise's biggest grosser. 

 

CR was definitely an epic fail prediction for me. Hopefully it can at least do Peter Rabbit numbers. 

Edited August 4, 2018 by MovieMan89

[MrPink]

MI2 seems like a done deal to me if 34.8m sticks.

 

Can it touch War of the Worlds would become the new question. At 22% ahead of Rogue Nation's 2nd weekend and staying at that pace through the rest of its run, it'd finish right around 231 million or so.

[EmpireCity]

The two leads are going to be pretty close to each other if not even tonight.  I'm guessing around $10.3m and $10.5m or so.  

[Ryan Reynolds]

4 minutes ago, MrPink said:

MI2 seems like a done deal to me if 34.8m sticks.

 

Can it touch War of the Worlds would become the new question. At 22% ahead of Rogue Nation's 2nd weekend and staying at that pace through the rest of its run, it'd finish right around 231 million or so.

unlikely, maybe beat Damon in spy genre passing Bourne Ultimatum which made 227m

Edited August 4, 2018 by Ryan Reynolds

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The two leads are going to be pretty close to each other if not even tonight.  I'm guessing around $10.3m and $10.5m or so.  

That seems... quite solid for both

[aabattery]

[MrPink]

5 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

unlikely, maybe beat Damon in spy genre passing Bourne Ultimatum which made 227m

 

It's definitely a stretch, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility. Based off EC's number, it's matching Rogue Nation's Friday jump. If it matches the Saturday jump of 45%....the weekend could actually be bigger, increasing the odds.

Edited August 4, 2018 by MrPink

[MovieMan89]

10m+ for CR today should translate into a significantly higher OW than DL's 26m. 30 at least. 

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

10m+ for CR today should translate into a significantly higher OW than DL's 26m. 30 at least. 

yep. i don't know what deadline is smoking

[Biggestgeekever]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

10m+ for CR today should translate into a significantly higher OW than DL's 26m. 30 at least. 

DL is probably assuming it'll play like a kids movie in the summer with a small Saturday jump. $26.4M seems low if it today is 10.5, but not by much:

 

Fri: $10.5M (1.5 from previews)

Sat: $9.5M
Sun: $7.5M

OW: $27.5M

 

Of course, it could end up playing stronger on Saturday.

[dxmatrixdt]

Mi6 up around +60% from Wed+Thurs avg.  

Rogue Nation jumped around the same but its Wed+Thurs #s were smaller relative to opening Sat&Sun

 

So part 6 is looking to be on par with part 5 and maybe even holding up slightly better despite 5 new films opening wide.  

*and 6 also outperforming 5 to begin with

Edited August 4, 2018 by dmatrixfilm1600dx

[Ryan Reynolds]

DL Revised

MI6 $34.3M

CR $25.6M

SPY $12.3M

DM $6.6M

DON $2M

Edited August 4, 2018 by Ryan Reynolds

[La Binoche]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

DL Revised

MI6 $34.3M

CR $25.6M

SPY $12.3M

DM $6.6M

https://deadline.com/2018/08/tom-cruise-mila-kunis-box-office-mission-impossible-fallout-christopher-robin-spy-who-dumped-me-1202439507/

[YLF]

CR doing well in audience RT score. 92% BITCHES

[Xavier]

I haven’t been here in a while, so question: isn’t RTH with his divine numbers here anymore?

[The Futurist]

 

 

They are back !!!