Taruseth Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 43 minutes ago, john2000 said: and you get this based on what ? we dont have enough info to determine the final gross its just guesing at this point We have the first and second weekend and it's a superhero movie they all perform pretty similar and most of the time the weekend drop gives a good idea for the final gross. And if you check the specific threads than you would see that in those people are estimating what it final gross could be (the France number, for example, is the, in that thread, estimated final adm. count 3.25M (based on weekend drop and comparison to other superhero movies) multiplied by average ticket price for CM). You are definitely right on that Rest gross though that is just a rough guess based on the weekend drop that most likely will be off by quite a lot. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Taruseth said: We have the first and second weekend and it's a superhero movie they all perform pretty similar and most of the time the weekend drop gives a good idea for the final gross. And if you check the specific threads than you would see that in those people are estimating what it final gross could be (the France number, for example, is the, in that thread, estimated final adm. count 3.25M (based on weekend drop and comparison to other superhero movies) multiplied by average ticket price for CM). You are definitely right on that Rest gross though that is just a rough guess based on the weekend drop that most likely will be off by quite a lot. oh i see, my comment was meant to be a question,sorry if it came with the wrong way ,so based from what we know so far the os gross could be anywhere from 700-750+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 35 minutes ago, john2000 said: oh i see, my comment was meant to be a question,sorry if it came with the wrong way ,so based from what we know so far the os gross could be anywhere from 696-750+ Am at work, just using a short break So, do not see this as raining on the optimism, just a thought why its so difficult to predict too: we assume the 2nd weekend drops, weekdays... were also bcs of a little push per the Endgame trailer. That push might be ~ satisfied', means people who didn't plan to watch, but did so for the trailer reason, might have watched it already now. A possibility of higher drops than some assume exists = not believing that it will / will not happen, but I always count the money only after it got earned.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said: Increased from Tuesday (10.2m). How? India holiday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, john2000 said: oh i see, my comment was meant to be a question,sorry if it came with the wrong way ,so based from what we know so far the os gross could be anywhere from 700-750+ It could, of course, be lower, I'd say right now 700 ±50 (or more precise 695±20). And there are quite some uncertainties like did the Endgame trailer help? Will Endgame help? etc. Will a big (local) movie kill CM in a specific market. Some markets might develop amazing late legs. But this is based on 2nd weekend and weekdays and comparison to other Superhero movies (and with the information from other people) The only countries I have a little idea about are the US (there are so many people on here that posted detailed analysis about prior movies and Germany. Edited March 21, 2019 by Taruseth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 minute ago, LeoC said: Increased from Tuesday (10.2m). How? India holiday? Dunno 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 6 hours ago, john2000 said: and you get this based on what ? we dont have enough info to determine the final gross its just guesing at this point Weeks 6/7/8/9 are a bit of a crapshoot with End Game coming out. That could change the predictions a lot. We shall see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, LeoC said: Increased from Tuesday (10.2m). How? India holiday? Nope. It just being flat. In some countries Wednesday, weekend start so they would have risen. Besides Thursday shall go for $9mn plus Thursday, that means FSS may hit $60mn. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Mon Tues Wed China $133.8M $135.7M (+1.9M) $137.3M (+1.6M)South Korea $36.9M $37.5M (+0.6M) $37.8M (+0.3M)U.K. $32.1M $32.9M (+0.8M) $33.7M (+0.8M)Brazil $25.3M $26.1M (+0.8M) $26.7M (+0.6M)Mexico $25.2M $25.7M (+0.5M) $26.1M (+0.4M)Australia $18.9M $19.3M (+0.4M) $19.6M (+0.3M)Indonesia $16.8M $17.1M (+0.3M) $17.4M (+0.3M)Russia $16.4M $16.7M (+0.3M) $17.0M (+0.3M)France $15.3M $15.9M (+0.6M) $16.3M (+0.4M)Germany $14.5M $14.9M (+0.4M) $15.2M (+0.3M)India $12.3M $12.6M (+0.3M) $13.0M (+0.4M) Stays flat or slightly decreases in most big OS markets. Perhaps the increase comes from other markets (e.g., Japan). Or the actuals in previous weekdays come higher than estimated and thus are added to Wed's number. Nevertheless, the number is looking good! With holidays in India and Japan on Thursday, and a less than 10% day-to-day decrease in China on Thursday (Finally!), maybe we can expect Thursday to be around 10M? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 #CaptainMarvel Japan Friday: $1.69mn Saturday: $1.99mn Sunday: $1.9mn Monday: $0.7mn Tuesday: $0.5mn Wednesday: $0.65mn Thursday: $1.15mn Total: $8.6mn Some holiday I suppose. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, LeoC said: Mon Tues Wed China $133.8M $135.7M (+1.9M) $137.3M (+1.6M)South Korea $36.9M $37.5M (+0.6M) $37.8M (+0.3M)U.K. $32.1M $32.9M (+0.8M) $33.7M (+0.8M)Brazil $25.3M $26.1M (+0.8M) $26.7M (+0.6M)Mexico $25.2M $25.7M (+0.5M) $26.1M (+0.4M)Australia $18.9M $19.3M (+0.4M) $19.6M (+0.3M)Indonesia $16.8M $17.1M (+0.3M) $17.4M (+0.3M)Russia $16.4M $16.7M (+0.3M) $17.0M (+0.3M)France $15.3M $15.9M (+0.6M) $16.3M (+0.4M)Germany $14.5M $14.9M (+0.4M) $15.2M (+0.3M)India $12.3M $12.6M (+0.3M) $13.0M (+0.4M) Stays flat or slightly decreases in most big OS markets. Perhaps the increase comes from other markets (e.g., Japan). Or the actuals in previous weekdays come higher than estimated and thus are added to Wed's number. Nevertheless, the number is looking good! With holidays in India and Japan on Thursday, and a less than 10% day-to-day decrease in China on Thursday (Finally!), maybe we can expect Thursday to be around 10M? India will drop by 30-40% on Thursday and another 15-30% on Friday. Edited March 21, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: India will drop by 30-40% on Thursday and another 15-30% on Friday. Sorry I don't know India Box Office well enough. Are there many local films joining the competition on Thursday? I thought the Holi would boost the performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: India will drop by 30-40% on Thursday and another 15-30% on Friday. Also take in to account that in some European countries like my country (Belgium and the Netherlands) you only have to go to school for half a day (well not for me anymore but for people between 2 - 18 years old so that might boost numbers as well). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 minute ago, LeoC said: Sorry I don't know India Box Office well enough. Are there many local films joining the competition on Thursday? I thought the Holi would boost the performance. Holi is not a good day for box office. Further there is local biggie released today that will dominate market. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 till Wednesday Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $282,251,537 34.7% + Foreign: $530,000,000 65.3% = Worldwide: $812,251,537 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Week One Fri Sat Sun 2nd Weekend Till 2nd Weekend Mon Tue Wed Thu Total China 108 6 10.9 7.1 24 132 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 139.3 UK 22.2 2.1 3.8 2.9 8.8 31 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 34.4 Brazil 17.7 1.4 2.8 2.4 6.6 24.3 1 0.8 0.6 0.5 27.2 South Korea 28.34 1.45 3.8 2.9 8.15 36.49 0.6 0.55 0.35 0.34 38.33 Mexico 16.5 1.4 2.5 2.4 6.3 22.8 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 26.5 India 9.55 0.5 0.9 1.05 2.45 12 0.35 0.35 0.3 0.2 13.2 Australia 13.8 1.05 2.1 1.55 4.7 18.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 19.9 Indonesia 13.7 0.7 1 0.9 2.6 16.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 17.7 Russia 12.9 0.7 1.2 1.2 3.1 16 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 17.3 Germany 9.9 0.9 1.6 1.7 4.2 14.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 15.6 France 11 0.8 1.4 1.7 3.9 14.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 16.7 Japan 1.7 1.9 1.9 5.5 5.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.15 8.55 Rest 115.33 9 15.6 12 36.6 151.93 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 165.03 378.92 27.7 49.5 39.7 116.9 495.82 13.85 10.7 9.65 9.69 539.71 I think there was some error in Wednesday reported numbers, as no way I see it doing 10.6mn, most likely the estimated numbers for Monday and Tuesday came higher and that make sense as well. So I am going with my gut, $540mn till 2nd Week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 (edited) My projection for 3rd weekend, Friday: $13.5mn Saturday: $25mn Sunday: $20.5mn Spoiler 3rd Weekend China 6.70 UK 5.30 Brazil 4.60 South Korea 3.60 Mexico 3.00 India 0.55 Australia 2.70 Indonesia 1.30 Russia 2.30 Germany 3.30 France 3.40 Japan 3.10 Rest 19.25 59.10 Total: $59mn ($599mn Cume) Domestic cume post weekend $322-323mn. That gives worldwide total of $921-922mn post 3rd weekend. That said, we would have Week 0: $44mn Week 1: $532mn Week 2: $251mn Week 3: $130mn / $957mn cume Week 4: $70mn / $1027mn cume Week 5: $35mn / $1062mn cume Week 6: $20mn / $1082mn cume Week 7: $13mn / $1095mn cume Week 8: $10mn / $1104mn cume Final: $1125mn cume Edited March 22, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 (edited) On 3/19/2019 at 10:45 AM, Thanos Legion said: So Mexico holiday Monday was 25.2-22.8=2.4M? OS-M 10.8M, down a nice 50% from last Mon. Last weekdays were 3.37x Monday, but I’d expect it should be higher on a non-opening week. So perhaps around 10.8*3.7+4M from Mexico =44M weekdays for 540M Thurs, ~55M FSS to get 595? First weekdays OS-C-J was 57M, x1.53 gave 87 FSS. This time weekdays are ~36, but taking out Bank holiday in Mexico more like 34, so same multiplier would be about 52M. Would not be at all surprised to see the overall FSS go above 60 a bit. (Since J should be 2-.2.5ish and C 5-7.5ish) 1.1-AQM looks increasingly like the likely range. Will cross my fingers for an Endgame boost but will be late enough in run to not be huge magnitude even if it materializes. Edited March 22, 2019 by Thanos Legion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: First weekdays OS-C-J was 57M, x1.53 gave 87 FSS. This time weekdays are ~36, but taking out Bank holiday in Mexico more like 34, so same multiplier would be about 52M. Would not be at all surprised to see the overall FSS go above 60 a bit. OS-C-J first weekdays were $56.5mn while 2nd weekend was $87.5mn i.e. 1.55x. 2nd week weekdays are $33.5mn, say due to Mexico they will be $31.7mn, with same ratio, 3rd weekend shall be $49mn, while I estimated them to be $48mn in my $57mn projection. If it has to beat Aquaman, need that $60mn plus weekend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...