CAPTAIN MARVEL | 701.4 M overseas ● 1128.3 M worldwide

[cdsacken]

31 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Agreed, and both Charlie and Asgard see the weekend number being quite a few million higher, so hopefully will be going up with actuals. Unless it craters against Shazam in two weeks, I don't see how it misses 700. As with domestic, I'm interested to see where it goes in the weeks leading up to EndGame. 

I imagine weeks 5 through 9 should (week 8 when End Game comes out) will be very nice drops for CM

[VanillaSkies]

11 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I don't think Shazam will hit it hard OS. I don't think it'll be hit hard by it dom either but OS shouldn't suffer. Not even sure if Shazam is OS thing. should do well enough.

 

I'm finding it hard to gauge it's overseas potential. 

It's a relatively unknown character, but that hasn't hindered others in the past. And some of the experts on here in Chinese BO seems to think it can hit big there... who knows. Ofcourse, CM is already done it's run in China, so a China breakout for Shazam! won't hinder it. You could be absolutely right. 

I just don't understand how some people think that after a 52+ million weekend, it can't make an additional 100 million in the next 30 days.... that seems like bad math

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

I'm finding it hard to gauge it's overseas potential. 

It's a relatively unknown character, but that hasn't hindered others in the past. And some of the experts on here in Chinese BO seems to think it can hit big there... who knows. Ofcourse, CM is already done it's run in China, so a China breakout for Shazam! won't hinder it. You could be absolutely right. 

I just don't understand how some people think that after a 52+ million weekend, it can't make an additional 100 million in the next 30 days.... that seems like bad math

Exactly!Also, great point that it doesn't matter if Shazam is big in markets were CM run is done. 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Valonqar

[Lucasmessi12]

I do not think it will reach $700m OS, this weekend's performance was not great at all, and it's competing against nothing, Dumbo debut next week, and Shazam the following week, and movies often suffer when new blockbusters debut (especially in international markets).

I think it wll ends between $685m-$690m,  but of course I will not be shocked if CM reach $700m..

[Joyous Legion]

52 would be a bad drop, and could definitely miss 700 off of it. Hoping for actuals more like 54 at least.

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

52 would be a bad drop, and could definitely miss 700 off of it. Hoping for actuals more like 54 at least.

even then i cant see it misses that  next weekend  will be around 640-650 ,while it could miss 700 i dont think so any idea why such a drop ?

Edited March 24, 2019 by john2000

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

I don't think Shazam will hit it hard OS. I don't think it'll be hit hard by it dom either but OS shouldn't suffer. Not even sure if Shazam is OS thing. should do well enough.

Shazam apparently has a lot of buzz in Brazil (I am pretty sure there was something about a poll of most anticipated superhero movies (Endgame wasn't there) being thrown around and Shazam came up top). Bodes well for the rest of Latin America. But I guess @salvador-232 has a better idea of the buzz in Latin America.

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

even then i cant see it misses that  next weekend  will be around 640-650 ,while it could miss 700 i dont think so any idea why such a drop ?

Last weekend was 121, with 52 Weekend has added 93 in next 7 days, 77%. 

 

77% of 52 is 40M, i.e. could be under 630 next Sun. Be a little generous, say it would be 635 off a 25M weekend, think it should be pretty clear how it could miss.        

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Last weekend was 121, with 52 Weekend has added 93 in next 7 days, 77%. 

 

77% of 52 is 40M, i.e. could be under 630 next Sun. Be a little generous, say it would be 635 off a 25M weekend, think it should be pretty clear how it could miss.        

it could but i dont think it will , will see still any idea why such a drop

Edited March 24, 2019 by john2000

[Valonqar]

17 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Shazam apparently has a lot of buzz in Brazil (I am pretty sure there was something about a poll of most anticipated superhero movies (Endgame wasn't there) being thrown around and Shazam came up top). Bodes well for the rest of Latin America. But I guess @salvador-232 has a better idea of the buzz in Latin America.

I want Shazam to do well cause it looks super fun and charming so it's a great news. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

I want Shazam to do well cause it looks super fun and charming so it's a great news. 

any idea why captain marvel had such a drop i expected more to be honest

[peludo]

It did $192m during the second week.

And now it has done $93m during these last 7 days, what means a 51% drop.

 

If it drops every week from now:

-50%, it would finish with $681m OS

-45%: $702m

-40%: $727m

-35%: $761m

 

Even considering that China will be done within 1 week, and upcoming competition, I find hard it can not reach $700m OS. I am thinking in 710-720.

[salvador-232]

38 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Shazam apparently has a lot of buzz in Brazil (I am pretty sure there was something about a poll of most anticipated superhero movies (Endgame wasn't there) being thrown around and Shazam came up top). Bodes well for the rest of Latin America. But I guess @salvador-232 has a better idea of the buzz in Latin America.

Buzz online seem fine. Personally, I don't think the humor is going to be a problem because the trailer has gotten great reactions. 

 

Pre-sales are seem just fine. But I don't have many comps. 

 

Shazam will inevitably hit CM here because of theaters are likely to give a lot of CM screens to Shazam, regardless if it does well or not. 

Edited March 24, 2019 by salvador-232

[john2000]

10 minutes ago, peludo said:

It did $192m during the second week.

And now it has done $93m during these last 7 days, what means a 51% drop.

 

If it drops every week from now:

-50%, it would finish with $681m OS

-45%: $702m

-40%: $727m

-35%: $761m

 

Even considering that China will be done within 1 week, and upcoming competition, I find hard it can not reach $700m OS. I am thinking in 710-720.

is the drop of this weekend good ? it seemed bad to me

Edited March 24, 2019 by john2000

[Valonqar]

34 minutes ago, john2000 said:

any idea why captain marvel had such a drop i expected more to be honest

OS is going to get higher with actuals as per resident Gods. Also, around 50% drop isn't terrible. 

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

OS is going to get higher with actuals as per resident Gods. Also, around 50% drop isn't terrible. 

so with actuals will be around 590 i supposse still is this drop normal ? idk how its legs are os without china 

[Nero]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so with actuals will be around 590 i supposse still is this drop normal ? idk how its legs are os without china 

Damn John you are giving Valonquar a run for your pessimism vs his optimism. China might max add 10-15M so it'll be pretty much done after 1-2 weeks

[Valonqar]

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Nero said:

Damn John you are giving Valonquar a run for your pessimism vs his optimism. China might max add 10-15M so it'll be pretty much done after 1-2 weeks

actually i am worrying if anything    aside the joke that would be a good game 

Edited March 24, 2019 by john2000

[peludo]

30 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so with actuals will be around 590 i supposse still is this drop normal ? idk how its legs are os without china 

Let's make some quick numbers:

 

18-24th March week: China has done $14m, so OS-China week has been 93-14=79m.

11-17th March week: China did $43m, so OS-China was: 192-43=149m.

So, OS-China drop week-to-week has been about 47% (whole week, not just weekend).