Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Nov 11 2022 | Starring 2023 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nominee Angela Bassett. She did not do the thing!

[jedijake]

While I see what you are saying, I don't think BP being a breakout necessarily means that people won't show up again. People loved the worlds and the characters (albeit the most beloved one is gone). And we now have a brand new world and characters/culture to explore.

 

We'll see what happens. If there's anything we can learn from movies since the pandemic, it's that patterns of the past can't be applied directly to the present and future.

 

Most people would like to look at an Avengers-->AOU type drop than a TFA-->TLJ type drop. (both are not too shabby actually, considering the circumstances). And the OW drops for those sequels would give BPWF an OW between $179 and $185 million. So there's that. Again, not too shabby.

 

Drops like JW-->JWFK is a very different story. I REALLY hope we don't see THAT!

[Eric S'ennui]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

While I see what you are saying, I don't think BP being a breakout necessarily means that people won't show up again. People loved the worlds and the characters (albeit the most beloved one is gone). And we now have a brand new world and characters/culture to explore.

 

People loved the worlds and characters of the first Harry Potter, the first Avengers, the first Jumanji movie with The Rock, etc. Sure, a well-liked predecessor always helps, but you're not 100% guaranteed to make more than the last movie because of this, especially when you were once the third-biggest movie ever made.

[XXR & Friends]

7 minutes ago, Eric Smiley said:

People loved the worlds and characters of the first Harry Potter, the first Avengers, the first Jumanji movie with The Rock, etc. Sure, a well-liked predecessor always helps, but you're not 100% guaranteed to make more than the last movie because of this, especially when you were once the third-biggest movie ever made.

I don’t think there’s anyone except Menor who has it making as much as the first. Most predictions I’ve seen are a 25-40% drop in ticket sales.

[Valonqar]

Many great points but I think the problem is in marketing. Original BP trailers were fun and clearly conveyed the main conflict. These new ones are morose, which is understandable, but you can make a trailer entertaining while acknoweldging a loss. They are trying to sell the movie on grief for Chadwick and mystery box over who new BP is. And maybe that isn't working as well as they think. 

 

Take a look (original BP promo behind the tag so that you don't have to scroll):

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Valonqar

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Wolverpool XXR said:

I don’t think there’s anyone except Menor who has it making as much as the first. Most predictions I’ve seen are a 25-40% drop in ticket sales.

I have not predicted that it will sell as many tickets as the first, actually. 

[RichWS]

33 minutes ago, Eric Smiley said:

And like a lot of follow-up sequels to big breakout hits that bring in more than the usual fandom, that doesn't always mean people will show up again, even if they like the previous film. This won't have the same Best Picture hype or social curiosity, even from people who liked the first movie, I doubt the same GoFundMe campaigns and Time magazine headlines will appear once again, and this is already well ahead of almost every other MCU movie that the room for growth isn't really as high IMO. This is falling for the same reason Spider-Man 2, Chamber of Secrets, Fallen Kingdom, The Last Jedi, and, using MCU for a second, Age of Ultron fell. I know this is different from every other MCU sequel, but this is a different beast of an MCU movie. And sure, maybe Multiverse and Thunder may be hurting it. And there is nothing that will change my mind that the constant TV shows are also hurting the MCU's appeal. At the very least, I think we can say they are certainly not helping. But I don't believe this is as doomsday as people are making it out to be.

 

So yeah, sub-200 is fine for a sequel to a big breakout film, because Black Panther is more like Jurassic World or IT: Chapter One. You can explain to me why Black Panther is like the other MCU films and how a Marvel movie opening to less than 200 is a disaster and how inflation means it has to make more money than God until you're blue in the face. but I don't have reason to believe a 175M opening is anything to fret or complain about.

 

Well said and 100% agree with this. Box office history is littered with sequels that have relatively substantial declines if the first film was a phenomenon. I've been guessing Wakanda Forever makes 525-550 for some time and there should be nothing surprising about that. 

[jedijake]

$525-$550 million would be great. That would be a better hold than both AOU and TLJ.

 

There will be people "out there" who just don't get it and will clammer about how both DSMOM and ThorLT increased from their predecessors while BP2 dropped. We know better but there will be those on the interwebs that don't get box office numbers.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I wouldn't complain about 525-550 as there are a lot of wildcards here, but below 500 is where it would get pretty disappointing for me. 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

YT trailer views is pretty tepid. Probably the lowest one I've seen for an official trailer for a Marvel movie in a long time.

[XXR & Friends]

46 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I have not predicted that it will sell as many tickets as the first, actually. 

Didn’t say that. You did predict it would make more money than the first. Most of us don’t have it doing that. I was using the tickets sold to indicate that most of us expect a AOU level drop in ticket sales.

[fabiopazzo2]

at least we cannot be disappointed. for the first time in many years we will have the expectations(Bo term of course)low

Edited October 4, 2022 by fabiopazzo2

[John Marston]

this was going to make less than the first from the beginning and when Black Panther himself sadly could not appear in the film it shaved off some more money. So this would not be surprising. Definitely not topping TGM

[Legion Again]

I see we’ve started the “these shitty numbers aren’t that shitty guys, really” wall of texts 38 days before release. Wonder if that’s a record.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Legion By Night

[Eric S'ennui]

7 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

I see we’ve started the “these shotty numbers aren’t that snitty guys, really” wall of texts 38 days before release. Wonder if that’s a record.

Well if you want to actually know something interesting, I said the same thing back in 2019, before the pandemic even happened. So I've been pretty consistent on saying this and I'm not doing this for "copium" or "defending shitty numbers" or whatever you're trying to spout here.

 

 

Let me also say that I'm really not fond of your subtweeting and mocking towards me because I have an opinion over a movie's box office that is different than yours. You do this every time people defend a Marvel movie's box office when it isn't to your liking and it's beyond tiring. Everybody's sick of it, so I suggest you don't give out this attitude over people's other viewpoints, or else. Your choice buddy boy.

[WittyUsername]

If this underperforms, it would be fair to say that Marvel’s glory days are truly behind them. 

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Let me also say that I'm really not fond of your subtweeting and mocking towards me because I have an opinion over a movie's box office that is different than yours.

Same, man.

 

I’m happy to truce but don’t expect some assymetric state of affair where you act like that towards me and threaten nebulous mod consequences if I push back in turn.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Legion By Night

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Eric the Crocodile said:

Everybody's sick of it, so I suggest you don't give out this attitude over people's other viewpoints, or else. Your choice buddy boy.

Also this has extremely strong “I say ‘everybody’ when I mean ‘me’” vibes.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Legion By Night

[jedijake]

14 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

If this underperforms, it would be fair to say that Marvel’s glory days are truly behind them. 

We'd have to have some sort of definition of "underperform". Everyone's got their own ideas of what that means.

[WittyUsername]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

We'd have to have some sort of definition of "underperform". Everyone's got their own ideas of what that means.

For me personally, I’d consider it underperforming if this makes less than $500 million domestically. I was never expecting this to match the first one, but if it has a particularly egregious drop, that would be concerning. 

[Factcheck]

9 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

For me personally, I’d consider it underperforming if this makes less than $500 million domestically. I was never expecting this to match the first one, but if it has a particularly egregious drop, that would be concerning. 

We should also keep this into consideration that ticket prices have increased 20%+ in last 2 years. So if it does $500M then it would be 40% less than BP's 840M adjusted gross.