Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[Veclozy]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Look this might sound extremely low but I'm personally thinking like 19/85/250. 

$250M with holiday legs would be atrocious

[HummingLemon496]

9 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Marvels will remain the biggest bomb of 2023.

 

I just can't see Aquaman failing that bad with Christmas break. That's 10 days where each day acts like a Saturday.

Aquaman has $205M budget vs Marvels $275M budget so it's basically impossible for it to bomb as hard as The Marvels

[HummingLemon496]

17 minutes ago, Veclozy said:

$250M with holiday legs would be atrocious

Yeah it's gonna start too low

Edited November 28, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

Wonka doesn't come out until December 15th actually.

It releases here in Brazil on December 7 

 

UK on December 8

[Arlborn]

38 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Look this might sound extremely low but I'm personally thinking like $19M OW / $85M DOM / $250M WW. $3.3M-ish previews, 5.5 IM, 4.5 legs, 40/60 split without China, and ~$40M China. 

I have this number in my head, 22M OW, I don't think it's missing that, somehow.

 

I also don't see it missing 5x legs if it does go under 20M OW, I could be wrong though, we'll see.

[HummingLemon496]

19 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I have this number in my head, 22M OW, I don't think it's missing that, somehow.

 

I also don't see it missing 5x legs if it does go under 20M OW, I could be wrong though, we'll see.

Yeah maybe if it goes <$20M it could do like 5.5-6.0 or something

[HummingLemon496]

How much will this movie do in China? Before I was thinking Fast X/JWD numbers ($130-150M) but now I'm thinking MI7 numbers ($40-50M)

[Human]

I think it greatly exceeds our expectations.

 

410M ww.

[dudalb]

On 11/27/2023 at 4:51 PM, Veclozy said:

$250M with holiday legs would be atrocious

Agreed, given how much they spent on this. 

[dudalb]

16 hours ago, Human said:

I think it greatly exceeds our expectations.

 

410M ww.

With a 205 Million budget that woule men it barely broke even...and that budget is just production, does not inculde Marketing costs which would put it in the red.

[Barnack]

16 hours ago, Human said:

I think it greatly exceeds our expectations.

 

410M ww.

Not having followed the box office for a while, what are the expectation for a giant James Wan blockbuster for 410m WW to be above it ?

 

That more Conjuring than Aquaman for him.

[dudalb]

Warners does seem to be spending a lot more on marketing Wonka then this movie.

IF Aqua 2 underperforms, it's opening so close to Wonka is going to be heavily criticised. It would be a self inflicted wound.

[dudalb]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Not having followed the box office for a while, what are the expectation for a giant James Wan blockbuster for 410m WW to be above it ?

 

That more Conjuring than Aquaman for him.

I think its that so many CBM for both DC and Marvel have been underperforming. or out and out flopping. The GA seems tohave had it's fill of them. Thye will still turn out for  certain films..GOTG 3 for instance, but no doubt  fatgue has set in for the genre as a whole

And, frankly, I think Wan is more ineresting as a horror director then as a bid budget blockbuster director.

 

[HummingLemon496]

$410M WW would be a great overperformance. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Kon]

14 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Warners does seem to be spending a lot more on marketing Wonka then this movie.

IF Aqua 2 underperforms, it's opening so close to Wonka is going to be heavily criticised. It would be a self inflicted wound.

 

Aquaman 2 underperformance will little to do with Wonka. I don't think WB has many expectatives on Aquaman 2, that's why they won't delay the movie regardless the competition.

 

I think WB are just noticing Wonka could really be bigger than they expected. So, they are pushing the promotion on that movie

[HummingLemon496]

I believe this may be why they are not promoting it properly

 

 

u/Darth_Nevets from Reddit predicted this one year in advance. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[dudalb]

10 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

Aquaman 2 underperformance will little to do with Wonka. I don't think WB has many expectatives on Aquaman 2, that's why they won't delay the movie regardless the competition.

 

I think WB are just noticing Wonka could really be bigger than they expected. So, they are pushing the promotion on that movie

You release two big budget movie so c lose together, damage will be done. I don't get why people don't get this.

[WittyUsername]

54 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

I believe this may be why they are not promoting it properly

 

 

u/Darth_Nevets from Reddit predicted this one year in advance. 

Are we supposed to know who these people are? 

[dudalb]

6 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Are we supposed to know who these people are? 

I think WB has lowered expectations for Aqua 2, but are not writing it off. They spent too much for that. You do not throw away a 200 Million dollar movie. 

Yes, I think Warners now probably considers Wokna to be it most likely cash cow for Christmas 2023., but they are throwing away Aqua 2. I suspect they will push it pretty big after Wonka opens.

Marketing is another reason hwy I think opening two big ticket films so closely together is not a good move. Nakes marketing tougher.

[HummingLemon496]

11 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Are we supposed to know who these people are?