Daily Numbers | Monday August 5

[vafrow]

There H&S drop seems harsh for having the Canadian holiday to help out. Quick look at other late July/early August comparables (Bourne, Star Trek Beyond) were a little lower (60-61%). With increased the Tuesday business we've seen, that may get made up, but, I think it makes it hard to outperform those films if it's falling behind this early. 

[sfran43]

 

[Inceptionzq]

22 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Only 15M Tuesday-Thursday? That seems a little harsh to me.

 

7.13M(+40%)

4.28M(-40%)

3.42M(-20%)

 

14.83M

I think it can do better than this 

 

 

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

how much can we expect from Lion King dom?

 

530 to 560 sounds about right.  Large range because there's still time for it to act more like a family film in the legs department than a frontloaded blockbuster.

 

3.75x off the last weekend (best possible legs, IMO) gives it 144m or so, which is 575m.

2.75x off the last weekend (family film, but frontloaded) gives it 106m or so, which is 537m.

2.5x off the last weekend (highly frontloaded family film) gives it 96m or so, which is 527m.

4x off the last weekend (crazy legs plus expansion somewhere along the line) gives it 154m or so, which is 585m.

 

All possible worlds might be 525 to 585 then, with 530 to 560 being the pretty likely range.

Edited August 6, 2019 by Porthos

[marveldcfox]

Hobbs and Shaw is a flop domestically. 

Watched it today in a largely empty theater that generally loves these F&F movies. The few folks there enjoyed the heck out of it, but I am not too sure about its legs. Fast9/10 has its work cut out for it.

[Valonqar]

I watched it in largely empty theater on Sunday too. 

[sfran43]

1	1	Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw	Uni.	$5,871,570	-63%	-	4,253	$1,381	$65,910,520	4
2	2	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$5,094,555	-57%	-45%	4,802	$1,061	$436,257,655	18
3	3	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	Sony	$2,480,502	-60%	-47%	3,659	$678	$81,308,511	11
4	4	Spider-Man: Far from Home	Sony	$1,225,239	-51%	-32%	3,446	$356	$361,703,221	35
5	5	Toy Story 4	BV	$1,072,748	-50%	-25%	3,225	$333	$411,322,622	46
6	7	Yesterday	Uni.	$365,230	-48%	-21%	1,837	$199	$68,295,965	39
7	9	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$360,179	-44%	-21%	1,370	$263	$350,837,256	74
8	8	Crawl	Par.	$311,398	-54%	-45%	2,720	$114	$36,438,487	25
9	6	The Farewell	A24	$291,678	-60%	+69%	409	$713	$7,112,691	25
10	11	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Uni.	$163,545	-32%	-14%	779	$210	$155,584,400	60
11	10	Annabelle Comes Home	WB (NL)	$156,191	-41%	-37%	919	$170	$71,734,537	41
12	12	Stuber	Fox	$98,502	-48%	-62%	1,080	$91	$21,919,496	25
-	-	Midsommar	A24	$84,170	-35%	-38%	381	$221	$25,299,114	34
-	-	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$65,861	-45%	-50%	420	$157	$857,545,354	102
-	-	Rocketman	Par.	$47,152	-50%	-32%	518	$91	$95,602,710	67
-	-	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	LG/S	$42,618	-45%	-33%	339	$126	$170,221,945	81
-	-	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	WB	$19,837	-53%	-41%	192	$103	$110,217,534	67
-	-	The Last Black Man in San Francisco	A24	$13,683	-52%	-27%	74	$185	$4,290,714	60
-	-	Pokemon Detective Pikachu	WB	$12,349	-35%	-28%	134	$92	$143,997,513	88
-	-	The Art of Self-Defense	BST	$11,587	-40%	-81%	110	$105	$2,380,387	25
-	-	Dark Phoenix	Fox	$9,519	-64%	-33%	125	$76	$65,765,300	60
-	-	The Other Side of Heaven 2: Fire of Faith	AAE	$9,359	+330%	+1%	30	$312	$1,564,907	39
-	-	Child's Play (2019)	UAR	$8,419	-55%	-40%	90	$94	$29,184,951	46
-	-	Sword of Trust	IFC	$7,277	-58%	+26%	74	$98	$241,262	25
-	-	Shaft (2019)	WB (NL)	$6,122	-50%	-48%	108	$57	$21,328,736	53
-	-	Booksmart	UAR	$5,962	-44%	-85%	55	$108	$22,663,844	74
-	-	Tel Aviv on Fire	Cohen	$5,297	-	-	11	$482	$52,842	4
-	-	Anna (2019)	LG/S	$4,380	-32%	-49%	26	$168	$7,738,503	46
-	-	The Nightingale (2019)	IFC	$2,912	-61%	-	2	$1,456	$38,794	4
-	-	Bethany Hamilton: Unstoppable	ENTMP	$1,925	-34%	-50%	24	$80	$573,630	25
-	-	Dumbo (2019)	BV	$1,393	-56%	-46%	30	$46	$114,760,399	130

Edited August 6, 2019 by sfran43

[xiazhi]

1 hour ago, LonePirate said:

Looks like TS4 will pass TS3 on Friday. Nice run even if it is a little disappointing.

Were people expecting ts4 to outgross ts3?

[vafrow]

I saw F&S in a theatre probably 70% full on Sunday night (on a holiday weekend in Canada). I found it adequate as fun action film,but it had no sticking power with me. Its only been two days, and I really need to think about it to remember the more elaborate sequences. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, LonePirate said:

Looks like TS4 will pass TS3 on Friday. Nice run even if it is a little disappointing.

 

17 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Were people expecting ts4 to outgross ts3?

Depends on when you measured expectations.  Six months ago or so, it was a highly debated point.

 

When initial pre-sales took off like a rocket AND reviews reached the stratosphere, some expectations became very high indeed.

 

So.  No and yes.  And Yes and no.  

 

As it is, getting near 450 for an animated film is in no way "disappointing".  Unless your threshold is: The most successful animated film of all time.

 

(more to the point, it'll be the highest grossing G-rated film of all time in the DOM market. Unadjusted, of course)

Edited August 6, 2019 by Porthos

[efialtes76]

Hobbs& Shaw is much better than The Fate of the Furious. 

[cookie]

I saw Hobbs & Shaw in a somewhat empty theater at 6 PM yesterday, which was surprising given well it apparently did over the weekend. Maybe it's more of a weekend player especially as we head into the dog days of August.

 

Movie was very entertaining even if it dragged in places for me personally.

[cookie]

53 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(more to the point, it'll be the highest grossing G-rated film of all time in the DOM market. Unadjusted, of course)

I completely missed that it got a G rating — I assumed it would be PG since G is virtually extinct nowadays (in fact TS4 is the first major G-rated release since Cars 3 two years ago).

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, cookie said:

I completely missed that it got a G rating — I assumed it would be PG since G is virtually extinct nowadays (in fact TS4 is the first major G-rated release since Cars 3 two years ago).

Since 2011, G-rated 50m+ DOM:

 

Quote

Row	Rank	OR#	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross*	Year^
1	3	29	Toy Story 4	BV	$411,322,622	2019
2	22	356	Cars 3	BV	$152,901,115	2017
5	32	471	The Peanuts Movie	Fox	$130,178,411	2015
7	31	463	Rio 2	Fox	$131,538,435	2014
9	6	107	Monsters University	BV	$268,492,764	2013
13	15	223	Cars 2	BV	$191,452,396	2011
14	24	395	Rio	Fox	$143,619,809	2011
15	30	453	Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked	Fox	$133,110,742	2011
16	43	750	Gnomeo and Juliet	BV	$99,967,670	2011
17	67	1093	Justin Bieber: Never Say Never	Par.	$73,013,910	2011

 

Given that even most of the recent Pixar fare has been PG and that TLK mk 2 was inexplicably rated as PG when the source was G, that list is gonna get shorter and shorter as time goes on.

 

Gnomeo and Juliet's sequel, for instance was PG (also did less than 50m DOM, but besides the point).  I can't imagine another Alvin film 1) being made and 2) being G even if it was.

 

I suppose if another Monster's Inc. movie ever gets made it might stay G.  But then there's Finding Dory which somehow got a PG rating, so who knows.

 

Really, unless it's a nature doc or something with brand history, it's becoming harder and harder to get a G rating.  Even if a studio wants it (and many don't).

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Really, unless it's a nature doc or something with brand history, it's becoming harder and harder to get a G rating.  Even if a studio wants it (and many don't).

I wasn't kidding about this by the way.

Same chart as before, but this time everything under 50m DOM (that BOM tracks on the relevant page):

 

Quote

ow	Rank	OR#	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross*	Year^
3	186	4201	Born in China	BV	$13,873,211	2017
4	176	3965	A Beautiful Planet	IMAX	$15,551,645	2016
6	169	3858	Monkey Kingdom	BV	$16,432,322	2015
8	161	3693	Bears	BV	$17,780,194	2014
10	124	2781	Chimpanzee	BV	$28,972,764	2012
11	151	3556	The Secret World of Arrietty	BV	$19,202,743	2012
12	182	4100	To the Arctic (IMAX)	WB	$14,551,252	2012
18	129	2918	Winnie the Pooh	BV	$26,692,846	2011
19	132	2974	Born to Be Wild (IMAX)	WB	$25,894,678	2011
20	177	3984	African Cats	BV	$15,428,747	2011

Only one on the list that isn't a nature doc of some sort is Winnie the Pooh, and wouldn't you know it, that falls under brand legacy.

 

There might be more in the list, but this caps out around 11m DOM, since this is off the Top 200 All Time list.

 

And even here, the disparity is pretty stark.  Like the last list, somewhat healthy up to 2011/2012.  Then it just nosedives off a cliff.

Actually kinda interesting to see both lists with such a stark divide at '11/'12.  Makes me think it isn't just studios but a change in how things were being rated.

Edited August 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Actually kinda interesting to see both lists with such a stark divide at '11/'12.  Makes me think it isn't just studios but a change in how things were being rated.

This IS actually interesting.  Using the Yearly gross by MPAA rating tool over at BOM, the pattern is crystal clear.  Films just aren't being rated the same as they once were.

 

Take 2008 as an example:

 

Quote

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter BV FDesk Fox NGE PicH Sum. Think Uni. WB ALL	MPAA Rating	Total Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	WALL-E	BV	G	$223,808,164	3,992	$63,087,526	3,992	6/27	1/8
2	Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!	Fox	G	$154,529,439	3,961	$45,012,998	3,954	3/14	9/4
3	High School Musical 3: Senior Year	BV	G	$90,559,416	3,626	$42,030,184	3,623	10/24	2/5
4	Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour	BV	G	$65,281,781	687	$31,117,834	683	2/1	5/15
5	The Tale of Despereaux	Uni.	G	$50,877,145	3,107	$10,103,675	3,104	12/19	3/5
6	College Road Trip	BV	G	$45,610,425	2,706	$13,601,419	2,706	3/7	7/31
7	Space Chimps	Fox	G	$30,105,968	2,538	$7,181,374	2,511	7/18	11/23
8	Kit Kittredge: An American Girl	PicH	G	$17,657,973	1,849	$220,297	5	6/20	10/9
9	Fly Me to the Moon	Sum.	G	$13,816,982	713	$1,900,523	452	8/15	5/28
10	The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything	Uni.	G	$12,981,269	1,340	$4,251,320	1,337	1/11	3/6
11	U2 3D	NGE	G	$10,363,341	686	$964,315	61	1/23	8/26
12	The Polar Express (IMAX re-issue 2008)	WB	G	$1,705,694	26	$42,718	12	11/21	1/8
13	Encounters at the End of the World

Not many, no.  But still plenty of healthy box office grosses.

 

Same for 2007:

Quote

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter BV Fox Kino ParV RM Tent. Uni. WB ALL	MPAA Rating	Total Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Ratatouille	BV	G	$206,445,654	3,940	$47,027,395	3,940	6/29	12/13
2	Meet the Robinsons	BV	G	$97,822,171	3,435	$25,123,781	3,413	3/30	9/6
3	Mr. Bean's Holiday	Uni.	G	$33,302,167	1,778	$9,889,780	1,714	8/24	10/18
4	Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium	Fox	G	$32,061,555	3,168	$9,630,085	3,164	11/16	3/13
5	The Polar Express (IMAX re-issue 2007)	WB	G	$2,483,757	32	$1,968	2	10/5	1/17
6	Arctic Tale	ParV	G	$833,532	227	$22,607	4	7/25	10/25
7	A Man Named Pearl	Tent.	G	$208,392	9	$8,378	3	8/31	2/26
8	Moondance Alexander	RM	G	$37,895	14	$17,427	14	10/19	11/8
9	City Lights (re-issue)	Kino	G	$19,181	1	$9,102	1	7/6	9/6

and for 2006:

Quote

Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter BV Fox Indic. Par. Tar. Uni. WB Wein. ALL	MPAA Rating	Total Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Cars	BV	G	$244,082,982	3,988	$60,119,509	3,985	6/9	10/19
2	The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause	BV	G	$84,500,122	3,458	$19,504,038	3,458	11/3	2/8
3	Charlotte's Web (2006)	Par.	G	$82,985,708	3,745	$11,457,353	3,566	12/15	3/22
4	Curious George	Uni.	G	$58,360,760	2,609	$14,703,405	2,566	2/10	5/4
5	Deep Sea 3D (IMAX)	WB	G	$46,399,299	47	$700,213	43	3/3	-
6	The Wild	BV	G	$37,384,046	2,854	$9,684,809	2,854	4/14	8/17
7	Everyone's Hero	Fox	G	$14,523,101	2,898	$6,061,762	2,896	9/15	12/7
8	Roving Mars (IMAX)	BV	G	$10,407,978	27	$412,337	27	1/27	6/25
9	Doogal	Wein.	G	$7,417,319	2,319	$3,605,899	2,318	2/24	4/13
10	The Polar Express (IMAX re-issue 2006)	WB	G	$2,940,722	37	$108,656	19	11/17	1/18
11	Romeo & Juliet: Sealed with a Kiss	Indic.	G	$463,002	27	$80,938	26	10/27	7/19
12	The Cave of the Yellow Dog	Tar.	G	$141,803	11	$5,229	1	11/10	4/8

 

But now compare just a few years later at 2014:

Quote

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter BV BWP Fox Jan. Magn. WB ALL	MPAA Rating	Total Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Rio 2	Fox	G	$131,538,435	3,975	$39,327,869	3,948	4/11	9/4
2	Bears	BV	G	$17,780,194	1,790	$4,776,267	1,720	4/18	7/17
3	Island of Lemurs: Madagascar (IMAX)	WB	G	$11,262,247	302	$188,307	37	4/4	-
4	A Hard Day's Night (2014 re-release)	Jan.	G	$515,005	136	$220,542	102	7/4	7/20
5	A Summer's Tale	BWP	G	$198,126	9	$12,863	2	6/20	10/26
6	The Polar Express (2014 re-issue)	WB	G	$139,055	N/A	N/A	N/A	11/1	-
7	2001: A Space Odyssey (2014 re-release)	WB	G	$135,370	N/A	N/A	N/A	-	-
8	The Hero of Color City	Magn.	G	$32,188	69	$24,260	69	10/3	10/30

and then there's last year:

 

Quote

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter Abr. Fathom GK Neon PDF WB ALL	MPAA Rating	Total Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Pandas	WB	G	$5,757,906	35	$158,915	33	4/6	7/15
2	Amazing Grace (2019)	Neon	G	$4,450,456	263	$57,353	3	12/7	-
3	2001: A Space Odyssey (2018 re-release)	WB	G	$3,236,321	13	$202,759	4	5/18	7/15
4	My Neighbor Totoro - Studio Ghibli Fest 2018	Fathom	G	$1,144,649	718	$539,245	718	9/30	-
5	Yellow Submarine (2018 re-release)	Abr.	G	$992,305	188	$107,105	73	7/8	9/30
6	The Polar Express (2018 re-release)	WB	G	$731,018	392	N/A	N/A	11/2	-
7	Ponyo (10th Anniversary) - Studio Ghibli Fest 2018	Fathom	G	$653,072	757	$281,697	726	3/25	3/28
8	The Cat Returns - Studio Ghibli Fest 2018	Fathom	G	$563,718	752	$254,402	721	4/22	4/25
9	The Wizard of Oz (2018 re-issue)	WB	G	$351,839	N/A	N/A	N/A	2/18	-
10	The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales	GK	G	$35,787	12	$2,402	4	3/8	11/8
11	Zoo Wars	PDF	G	$8,998	12	$8,998	12	4/27	-

Are people really gonna tell me that the films like Meet the Robinsons and The Santa Clause aren't being released nowadays?  Of course they are.  They're just being uprated to PG.

 

And, gotta tell ya, as someone who grew up before the PG-13 rating even came about, I know the difference between a G rated film and a PG one, and this ain't it, chief. 

[cookie]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

And, gotta tell ya, as someone who grew up before the PG-13 rating even came about, I know the difference between a G rated film and a PG one, and this ain't it, chief. 

PG-13 ultimately rendered PG’s original purpose obsolete. Anything PG-rated pre-1984 would’ve been PG-13 (or even R) now.

Edited August 6, 2019 by cookie

[cdsacken]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

530 to 560 sounds about right.  Large range because there's still time for it to act more like a family film in the legs department than a frontloaded blockbuster.

 

3.75x off the last weekend (best possible legs, IMO) gives it 144m or so, which is 575m.

2.75x off the last weekend (family film, but frontloaded) gives it 106m or so, which is 537m.

2.5x off the last weekend (highly frontloaded family film) gives it 96m or so, which is 527m.

4x off the last weekend (crazy legs plus expansion somewhere along the line) gives it 154m or so, which is 585m.

 

All possible worlds might be 525 to 585 then, with 530 to 560 being the pretty likely range.

Lol I was gonna say 540ish with a big range. This answer is better.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Very pleased with FFH’s drop. Hopefully, it can leg it out to 400M. TLK is doing what it’s supposed to do. It is meeting expectations. 

 

TLK, Aladdin, TS4 and Endgame made more money than almost all the studios make in one year, yet Disney’s quarterly earnings underperformed. Hard to believe! 

[cdsacken]

Really the expectations were just wrong. Not anticipating massive outlays after a huge acquisition was silly. More costs to come once Disney + launches

Edited August 7, 2019 by cdsacken