Weekend Thread: Weekend Estimates - Jokah 55, Addams 30.3, Gemini 20.5, Abominable 6.2, Downton 4.9 | Parasite generates 125.4K PTA (highest since La La Land)

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Unlike DC, they don’t have full control over Potter, everything has to be approved by JK Rowling or it doesn’t get made.

 

 

JK cares about money as much as the next person and after FB2's performance / FB3's delay, which must have hit her too, she should be more persuasive about her picks I guess.

[VanillaSkies]

47 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Being a little optimist, I am thinking of 19.5-20 Saturday, but it could stay around 19 range only.

 

Now a lesson. This is data from around 50% of market at this time of day and we are at a level that a 1-2mn up down will be considered a big off, for a 150 opener that ain't big deal, and just about extra 5 walkups in each show in evening could change that, so its not an exact science. Learn to take data as it is intended to. When I post an early update, that is projection based on basically 20% data point. That theoretically is the best possible projected number at that time, post noon things get a lot clear, unfortunately that is midnight in India, and I need to sleep.

 

TL;DR any number before noon PST is purely projection, which should be correct theoretically everyday, practically there are lot of factors. The first number post 5 or 6 PM PST is +/- 2-3% or +/-1mn off at max, anything after 10 PM are virtually actuals.

To add to this (I'm not sure if it supports the point Charlie is making or it just useless info), I spent quite a bit of time last night tracking Joker at some of the largest AMC theatres in NYC, where it's overperformed since opening. Last night many of the evening/late night shows were near sell outs well in advance. Today, PS for those shows are good, but nowhere near sell outs (yet).

 

On the flip side, the afternoon shows are doing very well right now. Much stronger than yesterday afternoon as should be expected with it being a weekday. That being said, with the business being spread out through the day today and many seats available still for this evening, it is to be expected that PS aren't near the level they were last night for evening shows. That doesn't mean those shows aren't going to reach the same capacity that they did last night. It just means there are going to be more walk ups than PS. 

As Charlie mentions, even 5 extra walk ups per evening show can have a noticeable difference on the numbers. 

My feeling is that is what will occur here. 

Also, PLEASE stop attacking @Charlie Jatinder for his early projections. 

We've been through this many times before. The earlier the projections, the more room for error. That is how data works dammit!
We are lucky to get even crumbs of data points to discuss throughout the day. 

If you have a huge problem with getting early numbers that might be skewed by certain factors and drastically change through out the day, so much to the point you have to insult the very person giving us these data points when he has no obligation to do so, then get off this site. You don't belong here for fucks sake!

The rest of us enjoy having data points to discuss throughout the day while we wait for revised/revisited numbers. 

Edited October 12, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

JK cares about money as much as the next person and after FB2's performance / FB3's delay, which must have hit her too, she should be more persuasive about her picks I guess.

To be fair, as safe a choice as Yates is, with a fairly flat direction, he does have his moments, and FB2 was all on the script as far as I'm concerned, so if Rowling had any self awareness, she'd hand over writing duties to someone else, with her just providing story details.

[raulbalarezo]

22 minutes ago, a2k said:

using 15-25% Sun drop

17

19 (+12%)

14.3-16.2

= 50.3-52.2

Great opening weekend!

[Ororo Munroe]

Phillips doing a HP movie is some of the strangest speculation I've seen here. To say the compatibility of this match is low would be an understatement, indeed. 

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

To add to this (I'm not sure if it supports the point Charlie is making or it just useless info), I spent quite a bit of time last night tracking Joker at some of the largest AMC theatres in NYC, where it's overperformed since opening. Last night many of the evening/late night shows were near sell outs well in advance. Today, PS for those shows are good, but nowhere near sell outs (yet).

 

On the flip side, the afternoon shows are doing very well right now. Much stronger than yesterday afternoon as should be expected with it being a weekday. That being said, with the business being spread out through the day today and many seats available still for this evening, it is to be expected that PS aren't near the level they were last night for evening shows. That doesn't mean those shows aren't going to reach the same capacity that they did last night. It just means there are going to be more walk ups than PS. 

As Charlie mentions, even 5 extra walk ups per evening show can have a noticeable difference on the numbers. 

My feeling is that is what will occur here. 

Also, PLEASE stop attacking @Charlie Jatinder for his early predictions. 

We've been through this mean times before. The earlier the prediction, the more room for error. That is how data works dammit!
We are lucky to get even crumbs of data points to discuss throughout the day. 

If you have a huge problem with getting early numbers that might be skewed by certain factors and drastically change through out the day, so much to the point you have to insult the very person giving us these data points when he has no obligation to do so, then get off this site. You don't belong here for fucks sake!

The rest of us enjoy having data points to discuss throughout the day while we wait for revised/revisited numbers. 

Well said, appreciate the sentiment, agreed, but... this place is all about overreactions. That's never going to change.

[cdsacken]

Lol let's not get crazy.  That would have stunk for OW. 40% below tracking, amazing!

[TwoMisfits]

So, I saw the highest grossing opening film of the weekend today...and it's okay.  Addams Family isn't gonna be all that memorable by next year, nor is it all that great, but it does hit the spots it needs to hit - very spookly done, nice hits of comedy that you only catch if you're paying attention (ala, adults), and enough wackiness and halloweeness for kids without an off-putting or jack-hammered delivered message (it gets close on this 2nd point, but manages to have enough different things it wants to say that it moves off before it becomes annoying:)...

 

Lurch stole the show for me...I loved his imagining...

 

So, now the family grades - we have 5 recommend and 1 NOT recommend (yes, the spouse continues his "being tough on the family movies":)...

 

Me - B- - Just good enough to make me happy I paid the Atom deal...just funny and spooky enough to make me happy to be there

Spouse - C - It didn't sell him

Oldest Teen Girl - B - She liked it, and found it pretty darn funny (she was old enough to catch the grown up stuff)

Younger Teen Girl - B - Also liked it

Oldest Boy - A+ - Nothing offended this kid, so back to his normal grade - he loved it

Youngest Boy (my burgeoning director who now watches old classic DVDs EVERY DAY) - B- - Secretly, I think he loved it more than this, but he's trying to be a critic now, so his grade:).

 

And for bonus, we watched the previews - outside of Jumanji (for all) and Playing with Fire (the youngest, who has loved John Cena forever, and is in the age range for stupid boy fun), NOTHING else spoke to anyone in my family.  My kids were actively making fun of Arctic Dogs, Playmobil, and Maleficent...although they just said Spies in Disguise is a pass, but not horrible (which is funny, b/c I don't hate that...but I'm not paying for it, if they aren't interested:).

 

  

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Great opening weekend!

indeed! 45-55 ows this year. some big names in there. great for Joker matching them after amassing 138 in the 1st week.

12	11	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World	Uni.	$160,799,505	4,286	$55,022,245	4,259	2/22	6/13
13	14	Pokemon Detective Pikachu	WB	$144,105,346	4,248	$54,365,242	4,202	5/10	8/15
14	15	Shazam!	WB (NL)	$140,371,656	4,306	$53,505,326	4,217	4/5	7/25
15	19	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	WB	$110,500,138	4,108	$47,776,293	4,108	5/31	-
16	12	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Uni.	$158,257,265	4,564	$46,652,680	4,561	6/7	9/19
17	17	Dumbo (2019)	BV	$114,766,307	4,259	$45,990,748	4,259	3/29	8/8

 

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Lol let's not get crazy.  That would have stunk for OW. 40% below tracking, amazing!

though pre release would have considered 50 ow far more likely than 50 2nd weekend.

it was supposed to have a CBM like drop and even with 100 ow 50+ 2nd weekends are not that likely for CBMs.

Edited October 12, 2019 by a2k

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Ororo Munroe said:

Phillips doing a HP movie is some of the strangest speculation I've seen here. To say the compatibility of this match is low would be an understatement, indeed. 

Eh, Philips certainly fits with the trying too hard to be dark tone of most of the Harry Potter movies. At least Philips would be able to make the most colourful Potter movie since Order of the Phoenix.

[reddevil19]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

So, I saw the highest grossing opening film of the weekend today...and it's okay.  Addams Family isn't gonna be all that memorable by next year, nor is it all that great, but it does hit the spots it needs to hit - very spookly done, nice hits of comedy that you only catch if you're paying attention (ala, adults), and enough wackiness and halloweeness for kids without an off-putting or jack-hammered delivered message (it gets close on this 2nd point, but manages to have enough different things it wants to say that it moves off before it becomes annoying:)...

 

Lurch stole the show for me...I loved his imagining...

 

So, now the family grades - we have 5 recommend and 1 NOT recommend (yes, the spouse continues his "being tough on the family movies":)...

 

Me - B- - Just good enough to make me happy I paid the Atom deal...just funny and spooky enough to make me happy to be there

Spouse - C - It didn't sell him

Oldest Teen Girl - B - She liked it, and found it pretty darn funny (she was old enough to catch the grown up stuff)

Younger Teen Girl - B - Also liked it

Oldest Boy - A+ - Nothing offended this kid, so back to his normal grade - he loved it

Youngest Boy (my burgeoning director who now watches old classic DVDs EVERY DAY) - B- - Secretly, I think he loved it more than this, but he's trying to be a critic now, so his grade:).

 

And for bonus, we watched the previews - outside of Jumanji (for all) and Playing with Fire (the youngest, who has loved John Cena forever, and is in the age range for stupid boy fun), NOTHING else spoke to anyone in my family.  My kids were actively making fun of Arctic Dogs, Playmobil, and Maleficent...although they just said Spies in Disguise is a pass, but not horrible (which is funny, b/c I don't hate that...but I'm not paying for it, if they aren't interested:).

 

  

Can you tell me how it is compared to the Hotel Transylvania trilogy? I found the first one passable, I forgot everything bout the second, and I wanted to commit suicide during the third.

I dunno if I wanna be bothered driving five minutes to the cinema and watching it when it opens here.

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, Ororo Munroe said:

Phillips doing a HP movie is some of the strangest speculation I've seen here. To say the compatibility of this match is low would be an understatement, indeed. 

I think it was Voldy solo movie specifically which seemed like a match compared to a brighter Potter movie.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Can you tell me how it is compared to the Hotel Transylvania trilogy? I found the first one passable, I forgot everything bout the second, and I wanted to commit suicide during the third.

I dunno if I wanna be bothered driving five minutes to the cinema and watching it when it opens here.

Huh...I think I liked Hotel Transylvania a little more than you (although I agree with varying goodness across the movies)...

 

It's less over-the-top wacky and less frenetic than that trilogy...and less laugh out loud moments for kids...if that helps:)...

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Well said, appreciate the sentiment, agreed, but... this place is all about overreactions. That's never going to change.

I know, and that is fine and it's even fun sometimes to see the roller coaster of emotions. 

That isn't what I am referring to here. 

 

I'm referring to the few members who take personal stabs at Charlie, in what seems to be some way to make themselves feel superior though they provide nothing of value when it comes to data points, when his very early projections are not in line with the actuals at end of evening. We are lucky to have Charlie, RTH, etc.  and for those who are too dense to understand how the data projection process works throughout the day (even though it has been explained many times before) need to just keep their personal attacks to themselves. 

For clarity:

Comments that are fair; "That evening number is a little disappointing after what the data was pointing to this morning" or "wow, the pre-sales really skewed the data on this one, that's too bad"

Comments that are NOT fair; "Why do we even listen to Charlie, he doesn't know what he is talking about" or "Charlie shouldn't even be providing early numbers since he doesn't know what he is doing"

There is a distinct difference. 
Sorry for the venting, but it's really starting to get on my nerves and I feel the need to come to @Charlie Jatinder defense, solely because I appreciate and cherish the data he provides to us each and every week. 

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I know, and that is fine and it's even fun sometimes to see the roller coaster of emotions. 

That isn't what I am referring to here. 

 

I'm referring to the few members who take personal stabs at Charlie, in what seems to be some way to make themselves feel superior though they provide nothing of value when it comes to data points, when his very early projections are not in line with the actuals at end of evening. We are lucky to have Charlie, RTH, etc.  and for those who are too dense to understand how the data projection process works throughout the day (even though it has been explained many times before) need to just keep their personal attacks to themselves. 

For clarity:

Comments that are fair; "That evening number is a little disappointing after what the data was pointing to this morning" or "wow, the pre-sales really skewed the data on this one, that's too bad"

Comments that are NOT fair; "Why do we even listen to Charlie, he doesn't know what he is talking about" or "Charlie shouldn't even be providing early numbers since he doesn't know what he is doing"

There is a distinct difference. 
Sorry for the venting, but it's really starting to get on my nerves and I feel the need to come to @Charlie Jatinder defense, solely because I appreciate and cherish the data he provides to us each and every week. 

To be fair, did we have comments like that in this thread? Like, serious ones? I didn't read every single comment, but didn't think there were any. 😕 

[JohnnyGossamer]

35 minutes ago, a2k said:

Potter audience is grown up by now. Grimy story about one of the the most powerful antagonist much like Joker wouldn't be a bad sell. They can make that in parallel and contrast with hopefully WAG CG animations of the Potter books and target multiple demographics much like they are doing with DC/DCEU.

Todd Phillips is comedy filmmaker that made a Joker movie as a love letter to a particular Scorsese movie about a delusional, failed comic called King Of Comedy.

 

I don't even think he'd want a damn thing to do with Harry Potter. Let alone have any idea how to make a proper one.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Todd Phillips is comedy filmmaker that made a Joker movie as a love letter to a particular Scorsese movie about a delusional, failed comic called King Of Comedy.

 

I don't even think he'd want a damn thing to do with Harry Potter. Let alone have any idea how to make a proper one.

Clearly, his next movie will have Joe Pesci as the Penguin, who becomes a criminal mastermind by running a couple of casinos in Atlantic City.

 

Actually...fuck it, I'd watch that.

Edited October 12, 2019 by reddevil19

[JohnnyGossamer]

16 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Eh, Philips certainly fits with the trying too hard to be dark tone of most of the Harry Potter movies.

That's true. He'd nail that down. 

 

I think WB would sooner give the It director a shot at Potter than give it to Todd Phillips. Worked with young actors and old actors. Awesome world building. Fantasy elements. Supernatural evil. And so on and so on.

[VanillaSkies]

5 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

To be fair, did we have comments like that in this thread? Like, serious ones? I didn't read every single comment, but didn't think there were any. 😕 

Yes, and I'm not referring to jokes and I'm not referring to just this week's thread either. 

People know exactly what kind of comments I am referring to. 

 

FWIW, you're comment that referenced them as "agents of choas" for their early projections is clearly a joke, and not a personal attack. 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Clearly, his next movie will have Joe Pesci as the Penguin, who becomes a criminal mastermind by running a couple of casinos in Atlantic City.

 

Actually...fuck it, I'd watch that.

...and who gets elected president and doesn't leave for 3 terms. can we make the penguin orange.