Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | February 17, 2023 | Competing with Eternals on RT, Competing with BvS on box office legs

[Jeight]

22 minutes ago, YM! said:

Because the GA surely loved Eternals right?

 

I do agree that some of the predictions of utter collapse are ridiculous but I do feel we’re in the diminishing returns era. Yes, the MCU is still very popular and with a new phase, especially once after the Infinity Saga acting as a closer for some, they’re bound to lose some membersThis, of course doesn’t mean every project is doomed or every project will underperform, but some projects may not be as big as hoped. Like it act more so as Phase 2 rather than 3 for this phase but if it sticks the landing, 6 could be be a swing upwards but not as big as 3 though.

The fact that from the 30 mcu movies you struggle to name me more than one that hasn't connected with audiences proves my point.

 

The audience doesnt have to LOVE everything. Not every movie needs to be a 9/10. A 7/10 is still good. How many mcu has the GA outright rejected. And ,nl im not talking about twitter, no gives a shit about that.

[JustLurking]

9 minutes ago, Jeight said:

The fact that from the 30 mcu movies you struggle to name me more than one that hasn't connected with audiences proves my point.

 

The audience doesnt have to LOVE everything. Not every movie needs to be a 9/10. A 7/10 is still good. How many mcu has the GA outright rejected. And ,nl im not talking about twitter, no gives a shit about that.

In the last phase you had Thor and Eternals getting shit reception everywhere, doctor strange being divisive to bad reception, and shang-chi and black panther while getting good reception domestically had poor reception in places (asia liked neither film for example).

 

The only film that had truly strong reception everywhere out of the entire phase was No Way Home.

 

Now don't get me wrong, the MCU is not doomed, but acting like nothing went wrong and there isn't a need to course correct is just as foolish.

Edited January 10, 2023 by JustLurking

[Liiviig 1998]

24 minutes ago, Jeight said:

The fact that from the 30 mcu movies you struggle to name me more than one that hasn't connected with audiences proves my point.

 

The audience doesnt have to LOVE everything. Not every movie needs to be a 9/10. A 7/10 is still good. How many mcu has the GA outright rejected. And ,nl im not talking about twitter, no gives a shit about that.

3 BCS in a streak of 4 movies when the whole the infinity saga had 1 in 23 movies.

 

 

The stats above tell this has been a clear decline in audience enthusiasm from phase 3 and you can't deny.

 

Don't know why bringing in 30 MCU movies.  

 

What is being discussed here is phase 4 particularly (7) movies . 

 

MCU is not collapsing but after last year ,think we all learned it ain't as critic proof . Every movie will live and die on its reception. Yeah all movies this year are making profit but all came below pre release expectations and yeah shitty legs after OW.

 

If this trend continues it will start having major box office drawback(certified flops)though I doubt that will happen.

 

Don't get me started on those tv shows. Even the weak films of the infinity saga are lot better than those shows which are just there to pad up the service for subscription and just dilute and oversacurate the brand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[YM!]

29 minutes ago, Jeight said:

The fact that from the 30 mcu movies you struggle to name me more than one that hasn't connected with audiences proves my point.

 

The audience doesnt have to LOVE everything. Not every movie needs to be a 9/10. A 7/10 is still good. How many mcu has the GA outright rejected. And ,nl im not talking about twitter, no gives a shit about that.

I’d name more but I don’t want to argue with why Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness or Thor: Love and Thunder got mixed reception, or whether or not some of the shows are hitting where they need to be. Because the mere act of suggesting either to you or even saying results are good but the phase feels more akin to 1 and 2, you take it as “oh, you’re saying it was hated when x, y, z and you’re just a hater”

Edited January 10, 2023 by YM!

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

shang-chi and black panther while getting good reception domestically had poor reception in places (asia liked neither film for example).

In fairness to Black Panther, it has cultural stigma to overcome and the loss of its lead.

[Cooper Legion]

Everybody serious knows that phase 4 showed some weakness in reception and BO. Not the sky falling, just some cracks starting to show. Phase 5 will be very important to either set a recovery narrative or solidify post infinity saga decline, and this movie is the start of that (featuring the saga villain movie intro no less). It’s going to be pretty important and I’m genuinely unsure which way it’ll go so we’ll just have to find out in 5 weeks.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Legion in Boots

[fabiopazzo2]

3.1M views on yt 

 

ouch

[Jeight]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

In the last phase you had Thor and Eternals getting shit reception everywhere, doctor strange being divisive to bad reception, and shang-chi and black panther while getting good reception domestically had poor reception in places (asia liked neither film for example).

 

The only film that had truly strong reception everywhere out of the entire phase was No Way Home.

 

Now don't get me wrong, the MCU is not doomed, but acting like nothing went wrong and there isn't a need to course correct is just as foolish.

Multiverse of madness is well received.  period.  so are black widow,  Shang Chi,  Nwh, Wakanda forever.  So most of phase 4. A d so are most of the shows.  Saying that only nwh had truly strong reception everywhere is extremely dicey.  No way home isn't the bar,  it's an outline. 

[Jeight]

58 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

3 BCS in a streak of 4 movies when the whole the infinity saga had 1 in 23 movies.

 

 

The stats above tell this has been a clear decline in audience enthusiasm from phase 3 and you can't deny.

 

Don't know why bringing in 30 MCU movies.  

 

What is being discussed here is phase 4 particularly (7) movies . 

 

MCU is not collapsing but after last year ,think we all learned it ain't as critic proof . Every movie will live and die on its reception. Yeah all movies this year are making profit but all came below pre release expectations and yeah shitty legs after OW.

 

If this trend continues it will start having major box office drawback(certified flops)though I doubt that will happen.

 

Don't get me started on those tv shows. Even the weak films of the infinity saga are lot better than those shows which are just there to pad up the service for subscription and just dilute and oversacurate the brand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It ain't critic proof?  The only MCU movies to lose money are those released in covid and only barely.  Shang Chi and be broke even,  only eternal lost money.  The last MCU movie to lose money before that was tih. The MCU released well received movies that range in the 700-900 in the box office.  That was the case for phase 2 and phase 3 as well.  Nothing has changed. Absolutely nothing. In 2017 all 3 MCU movie were in the 850 range with China.  The same average applies in 2022 WITHOUT China. If anything,  there is growth 

[M37]

Finally got around to watching the trailer, and I’m pumped: feels like the first MCU film in a while that has that “epic” feel to it, building to something big (since … Infinity War?)

 

NWH was more of a callback, MoM didn’t quite deliver in how it was sold as a big MCU event, Thor L&T and BW were mostly throwaways (in terms of broader story), SC and Eternals were introductions, and BPWF had unfortunate circumstances they had to work through 

 

With that said, it’s very much a tonal shift from previous lighthearted caper Ant-Man films, and I think there will be some hesitation to rush out here given disappointment over past year, so won’t be surprised with less of high OW ($100M+) but more of extremely good legs if it delivers (which probably helps as lead in to GOTG3)

[Deep Wang]

That's a pretty good trailer!

 

It's interesting that both GOTG3 and now AM3 are going a little harder into a more serious tone for their conclusions. 

 

Back-to-back no less!

[Saul Goodman]

In Peyton, we trust!

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

3.1M views on yt 

 

ouch

That shows asia is not interested in this. Ant-man has had the lowest interest among all MCU heroes in pre covid era. Of course we have had Shang Chi and Eternals in post COVID era but that released in a difficult year. 

 

I am interested in how quorum numbers change post this trailer if it makes a huge difference. Let us then wait for actual presales to start. It makes sense to start around 3 weeks+ to release. 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That shows asia is not interested in this. Ant-man has had the lowest interest among all MCU heroes in pre covid era. Of course we have had Shang Chi and Eternals in post COVID era but that released in a difficult year. 

 

I am interested in how quorum numbers change post this trailer if it makes a huge difference. Let us then wait for actual presales to start. It makes sense to start around 3 weeks+ to release. 

It is now at 4.6M and trending at #1 on YouTube now.

Edited January 10, 2023 by YM!

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

so won’t be surprised with less of high OW ($100M+) but more of extremely good legs if it delivers (which probably helps as lead in to GOTG3)

Those are big words. I dont think we have had a non holiday MCU sequel come close to 3x. So what is your definition of extremely good legs? Even universally loved movie like winter soldier did not have 3x legs. 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

I wonder if it’s glitch because it’s been at 3.1M views on YouTube for three hours now.

its at 4.6m now. Refresh your page :-)

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its at 4.6m now. Refresh your page 🙂

Yeah I realized that lol.

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, YM! said:

It is now at 4.6M and trending at #1 on YouTube now.

I am seeing it as number 2 behind Que Vuelvas. Its interesting that among movie videos Indian movies seem to dominate YT views. I guess majority of 122 million unique viewers every day on YT, majority are from India. in 10 days movie Thunivu has almost 60 million views !!!!! @charlie Jatinder 

[Verrows]

5 hours ago, Jeight said:

Some people wanted to jump off after ebdgame and now they are desperate to project their fatigue through "general audience" and they dont have the spine to admit its purr bias. The reality is that most mcu movies without china will gross 700-900 million, numbers that most blockbusters would kill for. Unless you think Avatar is the norm and even that wont outgross ebdgame 

You're really overreacting. Nobody is projecting anything. I am going by both anecdotal evidence as well as reactions on social media. I believe for a time there was a desire for the MCU to be less focused on the "next entry" or the wider story arc, but people soon realized they wanted that "it's all connected" feeling, that that's exactly what made the MCU work so well. You could tell by the amount of "where is everything even leading to?" comments.

 

I think it's a fair assessment. You're free to disagree of course.

 

Oh, and the MCU definitely has lost a bit of steam, especially overseas. Nobody is saying the MCU is done, or that the movies are flipping. Just that a chunk of the GA has fallen off.

Edited January 10, 2023 by Verrows

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Those are big words. I dont think we have had a non holiday MCU sequel come close to 3x. So what is your definition of extremely good legs? Even universally loved movie like winter soldier did not have 3x legs. 

Non holiday wise in terms of sequels, Ant Man and the Wasp got a 2.86x multiplier, Guardians 2 did about 2.66x, and The Winter Soldier around 2.75x. I think those would be good for it. A multiple similar to Wakanda Forever or Thor Ragnarok, which is 2.5x or above indicates good legs for a sequel, below is indicative of extreme frontloading from fan rush like the recent Avengers or Civil War, or mixed WOM like Multiverse of Madness or Thor: Love and Thunder. 
 

I’m personally thinking within the 2.5-2.65x range myself, as while I think most in March will underperform except Creed 3 and Wick 4, it’s still eating at its demographics but scarceness of family films will help. 
 

I am thinking something like 95/110/250 spread for domestic.

Edited January 10, 2023 by YM!
Got my Thor movies mixed up for a second