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Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | February 17, 2023 | Competing with Eternals on RT, Competing with BvS on box office legs

By TMP, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by Eric Prime,

Moderation   Okay, we are back in business. And frankly, I think we're done with this whole "Is Marvel dying/dead" discourse here in this thread. It is very obvious that whatever side of the coin you're on, none of you guys will agree with each other. It's very frustrating having to see people ready to pounce on Marvel, desperate to see it bomb, while also seeing people refuse to hear any criticism over their favorite franchise fight back and forth when you know nobody's minds will be
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lilmac Summer Tentpole

lilmac

Posted
Posted
On 1/14/2023 at 4:12 AM, Factcheck said:

If this report of WF's $450M budget with P&A is correct, then it may go into loss; whether it makes profit or not will depend upon how much money it makes through TV rights.
Budget with P&A 450M
video cost 60m
interest 40M
participations 45M
residuals 30M
Total cost 625M

Revenue-
Dom cut 235M
OS cut 156M
TV rights: 150-200M
home entertainment 50M
Total revenue 590-640M

Profit or loss: -35M/+15M

If the $450m number is accurate the production will make a profit with about a billion in WW theatrical grosses (assuming the studios take smaller cuts from OS boxoffice revenue streams per usual). Ancillary incomes will augment the take home $. 

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Factcheck Sleeper Hit

Factcheck

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9 minutes ago, lilmac said:

If the $450m number is accurate the production will make a profit with about a billion in WW theatrical grosses (assuming the studios take smaller cuts from OS boxoffice revenue streams per usual). Ancillary incomes will augment the take home $. 

This site saying that it will do 100M+ profit by assuming that it will have 150M+ revenue in home entertainment. But Blu-ray and DVD sales of MCU movies have been down by 80% since Disney+'s launch. So its total home entertainment revenue won't be more than $50 million, as why would people spend money on DVD and PVOD when it is available on SVOD for free? So yes, it may actually go into loss if the total budget with P&A is 450M and if it makes 150M in TV rights instead of 200M.

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

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On 1/12/2023 at 1:01 AM, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

which gives the following table:

Th final Expected start Ratio
12 1.21 9.917355372
13 1.35 9.62962963
14 1.49 9.395973154
15 1.64 9.146341463
16 1.8 8.888888889
17 1.96 8.673469388
18 2.13 8.450704225
19 2.3 8.260869565
20 2.485 8.048289738
21 2.67 7.865168539

 

 

So I will be looking for ~1.8M start — or ~90% A2, 44% BP2, 2.2x SC

Initial indications are that start may settle around 3 which is literally off of (my) chart. Would correspond to expected final ~22.666, ratio 7.55. Let’s see how actual 24 hr counts and MTCs come in though (if we get them)

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fabiopazzo2 Summer Tentpole

fabiopazzo2

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46 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

China: ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’, ‘Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantumania’ Secure February Release Dates; First Marvel Movies In Market Since 2019

https://deadline.com/2023/01/china-marvel-ban-ends-black-panther-wakanda-forever-ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantumania-release-dates-1235224248
 

Why not Spidey ??? 👺

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