Joker: Folie a Deux | October 4, 2024 | Lady Gaga is Harley Quinn in this 200M+ musical sequel

[gojorager]

Isaac confirmed it on the China BO thread 

[Paul Verhoeven]

Do pre-sales start on September 4th in the US? Only Warner Brazil confirmed the pre-sales, I haven't read anything about sales in America.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, WittyUsername said:

Is China becoming more accepting of R-rated movies now? At least the ones that don’t have any icky sex and nudity? 

Oppenheimer did release though they CGI'd the nude scene 🙂

[Jay Beezy]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer did release though they CGI'd the nude scene 🙂

 

Oppenheimer also only did just a few million more than Deadpool & Wolverine in China, though. So is Joker really expected to annihilate both of those movies' China grosses by a wide margin?

Edited September 1 by Jay Beezy

[TomThomas]

First Joker would've been huge in China if it was released there without cuts, to the point I think D&W wouldn't have its record today.

[Jay Beezy]

9 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

First Joker would've been huge in China if it was released there without cuts, to the point I think D&W wouldn't have its record today.

 

Too many assumptions are being made about how well any movie that wasn't released in China would have done if it had been.

[TomThomas]

7 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

Too many assumptions are being made about how well any movie that wasn't released in China would have done if it had been.

I remember chinese audience reviews based on pirate copies were incredible at the time. If any movie could resonate in a very unpredictable market driven by WOM, it's this one.

Edited September 1 by TomThomas

[WittyUsername]

I don’t know about China, but I do recall that the first movie did surprisingly well in Japan, and I believe Lady Gaga is pretty popular over there. 

[Jay Beezy]

18 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I don’t know about China, but I do recall that the first movie did surprisingly well in Japan, and I believe Lady Gaga is pretty popular over there. 

 

Gaga is banned in parts of China (not all) so it getting approved for a release there is surprising. But if she is banned in parts of China, wouldn't there be a ceiling?

[belblazer]

The first movie has a 8.7 on Douban, including 5-star reviews as 51% of the votes. Others:

 

The Dark Knight - 9.2

The Dark Knight Rises - 8.9

Batman Begins - 8.6

Into the Spider-Verse - 8.6

Endgame - 8.5

Across the Spider-Verse - 8.5

Iron Man - 8.4

The Avengers - 8.3

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - 8.3

Spider-Man - 8.1

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 1 - 8.1

Infinity War - 8.1

The Suicide Squad - 8.0

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 8.0

The Flash - 7.7

Aquaman (the highest-grossing solo CBM there) - 7.6

 

I'm not expecting huge amount there because I doubt they will like that much the musical elements. Maybe the standard numbers that CBMs have made this decade there.

[KP1025]

2 hours ago, TomThomas said:

I remember chinese audience reviews based on pirate copies were incredible at the time. If any movie could resonate in a very unpredictable market driven by WOM, it's this one.

 

Looking at Joker's performance in Hong Kong and Taiwan, two markets which are often good indicators for how a film will perform in China due to cultural similarities, I think Joker would have done well if released in China but not exceptionally so. Maybe $100-150 million. 

[rockiron99]

3 hours ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

Gaga is banned in parts of China (not all) so it getting approved for a release there is surprising. But if she is banned in parts of China, wouldn't there be a ceiling?

She's never been "banned" in China. Even though she met with Dalai Lama in 2016 which made the Chinese government so mad, but this did never lead to the result that she had been banned. Her music is always available on all platforms in China and nation TV stations (such as CCTV) have broadcasted news about her several times over the years. If China really gets a problem with her, it won't let her appear on the 2024 Paris Olympics opening ceremony live show transmitted by CCTV and this point has been confirmed recently by an true insider in the National Film Bureau (which means she doesn't have difficulty in being approved by Chinese government). Just wait for the official announcement for Joker 2 to be released in China. I believe it's coming very soon.

[excel1]

3 hours ago, belblazer said:

The first movie has a 8.7 on Douban, including 5-star reviews as 51% of the votes. Others:

 

The Dark Knight - 9.2

The Dark Knight Rises - 8.9

Batman Begins - 8.6

Into the Spider-Verse - 8.6

Endgame - 8.5

Across the Spider-Verse - 8.5

Iron Man - 8.4

The Avengers - 8.3

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - 8.3

Spider-Man - 8.1

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 1 - 8.1

Infinity War - 8.1

The Suicide Squad - 8.0

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 8.0

The Flash - 7.7

Aquaman (the highest-grossing solo CBM there) - 7.6

 

I'm not expecting huge amount there because I doubt they will like that much the musical elements. Maybe the standard numbers that CBMs have made this decade there.

 

God Nolan is such a GOAT

[toutvabien]

My current predictions are that it should grab a lot of "2nd biggest R-rated" titles (in the US):

 

Thursday previews ($22M+)

Opening day ($60M+)

Opening weekend ($140M+)

Probably total (~$400M)

[TomThomas]

8 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

Looking at Joker's performance in Hong Kong and Taiwan, two markets which are often good indicators for how a film will perform in China due to cultural similarities, I think Joker would have done well if released in China but not exceptionally so. Maybe $100-150 million. 

$100-150 was a very average perfomance for a comic book movie back then, I believe it would've done better, $200 at least. If fricking Venom was considered a mold breaker for them, I think Joker would've been a cultural shock for China.

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[Grebacio]

505M Dom

1.3B WW

[TomThomas]

 

[Paul Verhoeven]

Embargo: 7:00pm Venice time.

[thajdikt]

 

45 minutes ago, Paul Verhoeven said:

Embargo: 7:00pm Venice time.

today?