Joker: Folie a Deux | October 4, 2024 | Lady Gaga is Harley Quinn in this 200M+ musical sequel

[wattage]

51 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Aquaman 2 is also just like the first one and dropped like a rock, saved a bit by Christmas.

Aquaman miraculously didn't make the Marvels money. With an extremely reduced marketing campaign and just the general vibe being "heres this movie I guess" from even the studio itself it did what it did. The predictable massive drop off in China didnt help at all. But it had pretty standard legs and decent enough reception of the smaller openings in pretty much every market. 

[TheFlatLannister]

3 hours ago, wildphantom said:

if Batman II was a musical then maybe I’d agree with you. If it’s in the same vein as the first it will do gangbusters. Not concerned at all. 
 

Penguin first episode is excellent too. 

What does gangbusters mean lol? Cause no way Batman 2 is touching $1B 

 

maybe $850M if it’s perfect and has no competition for months 

[TheFlatLannister]

However, I don’t agree with the sentiment that Batman 2 will drop like a rock. It will be fine ($700M+)

 

I just don’t think it has much room to grow. 

[wattage]

5 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

However, I don’t agree with the sentiment that Batman 2 will drop like a rock. It will be fine ($700M+)

 

I just don’t think it has much room to grow. 

I think it dropping on HBO Max barely a month afte release, and it was announced fairly soon after release maybe two weeks after or so, greatly impacted its domestic total so it has room to grow there and in China (maybe) since they had massive theater closures around release for the movie due to a COVID surge. I remember seeing the news and being pretty bummed about it since I wanted to have a proper baseline for new age Batman in the region. 

 

I think the next movie will hit around 800 mill. I don't see a bill either by a long shot unless the movie really is just amazing. A+ cinemascore type of good. Which I don't think will happen at this point. But time will tell. 

Edited Monday at 08:14 PM by wattage

[wattage]

The budget should also be exactly the same, lower even, since I know the COVID filming protocol and delays due to that really increased the budget on the first movie so that'll help. 

[Firepower]

26 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

However, I don’t agree with the sentiment that Batman 2 will drop like a rock. It will be fine ($700M+)

 

I just don’t think it has much room to grow. 

Yeah, maybe slight deciline, but still over $700M, unless Superman crashes and burns, and further damages the brand.

 

22 minutes ago, wattage said:

I think it dropping on HBO Max barely a month afte release, and it was announced fairly soon after release maybe two weeks after or so, greatly impacted its domestic total

I don't think it "greatly" impacted anything, 45 days is decent enough window, most movies make 90% of their box office in 6 weeks, unless there are some spectacular legs.

[wattage]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

 

I don't think it "greatly" impacted anything, 45 days is decent enough window, most movies make 90% of their box office in 6 weeks, unless there are some spectacular legs.

I just don't think that's true at all which is specifically why the studios stopped doing that but left the shorter PVOD windows. I think 3ish months is the sweet spot they've found with some longer gaps if they can swing it. So we'll leave it at that. Nobody's mind is gonna be changed here I'm fairly sure. 

Edited Monday at 08:45 PM by wattage
shirter typo is fixed

[wattage]

To clarify yes most movies make their money in the early days, we're just not agreeing on the impact of shorter streaming windows on consumer behavior with movie going. I'm talking specifically streaming and not anything like PVOD or VOD. 

Edited Monday at 08:53 PM by wattage

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, wattage said:

I think it dropping on HBO Max barely a month afte release, and it was announced fairly soon after release maybe two weeks after or so, greatly impacted its domestic total so it has room to grow there and in China (maybe) since they had massive theater closures around release for the movie due to a COVID surge. I remember seeing the news and being pretty bummed about it since I wanted to have a proper baseline for new age Batman in the region. 

 

I think the next movie will hit around 800 mill. I don't see a bill either by a long shot unless the movie really is just amazing. A+ cinemascore type of good. Which I don't think will happen at this point. But time will tell. 

China has never been big about Batman and I don't see that changing now with how recent Hollywood films have performed there. DOM could increase, but I doubt it would be much more than an extra $50M

[Mad Max007]

Batman 2 will make $800M a slight increase from the last at best not the easy $1B+ people expected.

[John Marston]

Batman 2 will definitely decrease in my book. First on whit a decent reception bit I don’t think people went insane over it and they are taking way too long for a sequel 

[excel1]

At this point, I think it is extremely difficult to properly predict (pre-engagement numbers) what some of these comic book projects will do, simple as that. If Superman did 80/220/500m or $200/650/1.4b, I would be equally surprised. 

 

THE BATMAN absolutely appears to seriously underperform its potential when it opens. It did legit. 50% of what NO WAY HOME did a few months earlier. It was never going to match NWH's opening weekend audience, but it certainly should have kept more than 50% of it. Despite it's insane length, it was a well received film. A. well-received sequel will do well. Whether that is a 150/425/1b run or a 115/350/750 run, who knows.

 

What THE BATMAN 2 has in common with JOKER 2 is there is a downright inexcusable gap in releases. Like, a , "what the f have you producers been doing for the last 2 years?" sized gap.

 

What TB2 and Superman have going for them, UNLIKE Joker, is their directors are widely respected and have built in audiences at this point, which is where the money really seems to be these days. 

Edited Monday at 10:43 PM by excel1

[ZeeSoh]

2 hours ago, wattage said:

I think it dropping on HBO Max barely a month afte release, and it was announced fairly soon after release maybe two weeks after or so, greatly impacted its domestic total so it has room to grow there and in China (maybe) since they had massive theater closures around release for the movie due to a COVID surge. I remember seeing the news and being pretty bummed about it since I wanted to have a proper baseline for new age Batman in the region. 

 

I think the next movie will hit around 800 mill. I don't see a bill either by a long shot unless the movie really is just amazing. A+ cinemascore type of good. Which I don't think will happen at this point. But time will tell. 

I think you are overstating the impact that the PVOD/DVD/Streaming release had on the movie. It made about 4 million dollars after its digital release. If you look at GOTG3 which had almost similar legs as The Batman (3x vs 2.8x), GOTG3 had a DVD release 2 months after theatrical and streaming 3 months after theatrical and it only made 14 million after that in theatres. Roughly 10 million more than the Batman did after its digital release which can be easily explained by GOTG3's better legs. Even that 10 million represents just 3% of Batman's total gross. So yeah a delayed streaming release might add a handful of millions to its total gross but an early release by no means "greatly impacted" its domestic total. Other similar movies with longer theatrical window are a testament to that. If it was day and date then we could argue that it would have had a greater impact but with a 45 day theatrical window those who want to see it in theatres will do so and those who want to wait will wait 60 days instead of 45 days.

 

As for China, as FlatLanister said Batman was never a big name in China. Even pre-COVID BvS (the only relevant Batman movie for comparison) did what any regular old SH movie was expected to do. It was not as big as Avengers or other big CBM movies there. And since COVID we have seen almost all SH movies flounder there. Even Aquaman which did nearly 300m before COVID managed only 66 million or so after all COVID restrictions had been listed. So I would not expect big improvements there.

 

I do agree that the movie can hit 800 million if its a great movie and hits it off with the audience and critics but it will be a difficult task.

[Mad Max007]

I think despite all the love the first film gets on the internet, the GA sees it as an average film.

[ThomasNicole]

I rather wait 4-5 years and get an actual good movie than see the studios pushing directors to deliver mediocre movies every year and half. 
 

I know people are anxious and disinterested more and more, but this shouldn’t make artists to work out of their creative time to deliver half baked products. 
 

Basically, i’m happy Reeves got his time to work without an executive pushing deadlines. The Batman was well liked, unlike Joker it did setup a sequel, and there’s a TV show in the same universe right now to keep this universe in the public eye. It’s doing fine. 
 

https://variety.com/2024/tv/ratings/the-penguin-ratings-hbo-1236153929/
 

I think sometimes is too easy to make predictions over movies that won’t release in 2 years and nobody saw anything about it. It’s hardly based in anything concrete. Maybe the long wait can prevent movies of doing a billion, but not everything have to make a billion. This insane expectations should end in the industry and with the fans.

Edited yesterday at 12:05 AM by ThomasNicole

[ThomasNicole]

On 9/22/2024 at 12:30 PM, Firepower said:

The Penguin viewership is on the level of shows nobody cares about

Per HBO, the spinoff series starring Colin Farrell and Cristin Milioti opened to 5.3 million U.S. viewers across all platforms since its debut on Sept. 19. That puts it above the final season premiere of “Succession,” which drew 4.9 million viewers, and the second season premiere of “The White Lotus,” which drew 4.1 million. It also falls just behind the premiere of “True Detective: Night Country,” which nabbed 5.7 million viewers.

 

Additionally, the show has landed the biggest 4-day audience for a new series on Max in every region globally since “The Last of Us” in Jan. 2023.

[ThomasNicole]

The shows no one cares about: the 4 biggest shows of the plataform, all of them big Emmy winners. 
 

Some takes here are so unserious lol. 
 

The world is not ending because a musical Joker maybe won’t connect.

[HummingLemon496]

Only 10 days until

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

The shows no one cares about: the 4 biggest shows of the plataform, all of them big Emmy winners. 
 

Some takes here are so unserious lol. 
 

The world is not ending because a musical Joker maybe won’t connect.

And a movie that, let's be honest, (as u/AgentCooper315 on Reddit pointed out) nobody asked for a sequel to. 

 

EVERYBODY was asking for an Into the Spider-Verse 2. I don't recall anybody asking for a Joker 2.

[filmlover]

I doubt however well (or not) the Penguin TV show does is a factor at all in the seemingly inevitable massive underperformance that awaits this.