WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020

[Eric Deetz]

December 25

 

The Croods 2: What an odd movie to give a sequel to now. The first Croods was a big hit, but it was 7 years ago. And since this doesn’t have the Disney machine keeping it relevant, the last time anyone actually talked or cared about The Croods was probably 5 years ago. By this point, do kids today even know what The Croods is? Ferdinand and Spies in Disguise both look to finish their runs in the 70s, and I think that sounds about right here. 17/24/73 (4.29x, 3.04x)

 

News of the World: I love me some Paul Greengrass and Tom Hanks, and I’m sure I’m gonna love this. If the Western stuff looks good in the trailer, then that will only help the movie. The Post did about 80M back in 2017, and I think that’s fair enough. Maybe even a little bit higher, but for now, let’s just say about the same. 23/80 (3.48x)

 

Tom and Jerry: Ah yes, a return to the glory days of Alvin and the Chipmunks and The Smurfs. I don’t really know what to expect with this. It’ll probably do better than Croods because it’s a nostalgic brand? Maybe? Tim Story is a fine enough journeyman, so I guess it’ll be fine? Let’s just say it does better than Croods, but not by much. 22/28/85 (3.86x, 3.04x)

 

The Tomorrow War: And now, we end this two-week long escapade with a sci-fi Chris Pratt vehicle. Cool premise, like the director, not really sure if it’ll stand out if Dune really lands this Christmas. But hey, if there’s any time movies can co-exist, I guess it’s Christmas. Maybe Chris Pratt helps interest people too. Let’s just be nice to this one I guess. 30/110 (3.67x)

[WrathOfHan]

December 18

 

Coming to America 2: Eddie Murphy is regaining popularity thanks to Dolemite is my Name, and this is a safe bet on paper for his comeback to rise even further. Coming to America was a massive hit when it came out, and although younger audiences aren’t too familiar with it, this will have lots of publicity leading up to release that could pull out some college audiences over the holidays. The quality is probably my biggest concern as comedy sequels are spotty, but with the original writing duo alongside Craig Brewer and Kenya Barris, that seems pretty damn strong to me. 30/180 (6x)

 

Dune: People have been shitting on this film’s potential after 2049 flopped, but I’m here to tell you that Villeneuve is coming in hot with Dune. This is THE big budget event of the holiday season and probably WB’s main push for the year. With Fantastic Beasts flailing, LEGO dropping off the face of the earth, and Monsterverse providing diminishing returns, they need this film to be a success so they can gain a new franchise alongside DC. If Dune fails, it will cost the studio lots of money, especially because a companion series is in development at HBO. They are riding high on this, and honestly, it should pay off Villeneuve has an amazing filmography, and given this is his first writing credit in about a decade, he is putting lots of passion into this. The cast is great, and it will have IMAX for the entire Christmas frame (probably Dolby too if it’s not sharing with West Side Story or something else). Dune will be really refreshing for the current big-budget climate and the event of Christmas. 60/350 (5.83x)

 

Uncharted: this aint happening fam.

 

West Side Story: Spielberg is an interesting choice to tackle this musical, and I’m interested to see how unique it is compared to the original film. My main concern is that this is a remake that feels pointless, and although WSS is one of the most famous musicals of all time, there is already a classic film for it. I think this will have enough interest to last at the box office for a while thanks to an empty January (if not with awards buzz), but I expect it to have a fairly low opening. 15/165 (11x)

[WrathOfHan]

December 23/25

 

The Croods 2: Is this actually happening? I feel like this has been talked about for ages. This will be releasing almost 9 years after the first, and The Croods has maintained no relevancy in pop culture. Hell, it didn’t even maintain relevancy the year it came out. I’m sure it will be good, but it feels like a box office dud. 20/27/80 (4x from 3 day/2.96x from 5 day)

 

Tom and Jerry: I have many concerns about the quality of this, but considering the only other family option for Christmas is The Croods 2 (and WSS to a lesser extent), this should have good returns. Too bad this wasn’t fully animated like Scoob!, but we’ll see how those CGI designs for Tom and Jerry are. 30/45/150 (5x from 3 day/3.33x from 5 day)

 

News of the World: I think this should start in limited then go wide in January. The Christmas frame is stacked with adult releases, and this feels like it will get lost in the shuffle if it stays wide on Christmas. Tom Hanks alone can’t carry a film anymore. 10/40 (4x)

[Eric Deetz]

And yep, that’s all of them. As you can see, I’m not super confident about 2020. 2019 really made me change my tune on the box office, and streaming is probably going to make things worse. But at the very least, Disney will at least have a few original properties land, WB might have the #1 movie this year, so consolation prize for all the dudes here who do nothing but whine about Disney, and maybe Timothee Chalamet saves cinema like he always does. Who knows? Let’s just enjoy the ride!

 

As always, thank you to @WrathOfHan for accepting my request for us to do this together again. It’s always fun thinking this stuff up, and it’s always great to see how your mind works. Good luck with college and whatever else is happening to you this year. And thank you to all the people who read our stuff, reacted to our posts, and just listened to what we had to say.

 

And one last thing, in case you’re wondering, yes I’m still on the “all non-Disney, non-Wonder Woman under 250M” train. Join the club dudes and dudettes!!

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

And that's 2020! I think there's room for plenty of breakouts (especially from unscheduled and indie releases), but there's no doubt it will be a much more dreary year than 2019. The big studios are slowly starting to realize original content is necessary to remain relevant in the streaming era as their brand powers are nowhere near as big as Disney's power, but even the Mouse will be facing some of these effects this year. 2021 could be a revolutionary year for cinemas, but we have to get through 2020 first.

[reddevil19]

Jesus, next December is a wasteland. And even so, and as much as I think Dune will at least be visually stunning, I don't see it sniffing 300 if it's anywhere near BR49 in tone and pacing. Unless it's sold as an epic sci-fi action adventure flick, even with that release date, I think it'll struggle for 200. The trailer will tell us more... 

 

But seriously, someone needs to move another big project that's far enough along to December. Any quick live action remakes on hand, Disney? 

[Cooper Legion]

23 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Jesus, next December is a wasteland. And even so, and as much as I think Dune will at least be visually stunning, I don't see it sniffing 300 if it's anywhere near BR49 in tone and pacing. Unless it's sold as an epic sci-fi action adventure flick, even with that release date, I think it'll struggle for 200. The trailer will tell us more... 

 

But seriously, someone needs to move another big project that's far enough along to December. Any quick live action remakes on hand, Disney? 

In the famous words of Thomas Paine, “Give me December Eternals, or give me death.”

Edited January 5, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

In the famous words of a Thomas Paine, “Give me December Eternals, or give me death.”

They really should. Mind you, that will leave November in worse fucking state than this year. I doubt Godzilla vs Kong will be as huge a flop as Dark Fate, so we won't even have the chuckle factor, just... A mediocre mid-400 WW result. 

 

Ah well, maybe Dune will live up to its potential and be this fantastic, perfect epic. 

[Jonwo]

Tom and Jerry is a bit of a wildcard, moreso than Scoob. 

[Eric Deetz]

On 12/25/2019 at 7:52 PM, Eric Dolittle said:

January 17
 

Bad Boys For Life: Does anyone really care about this? Bad Boys 2 was already a long time ago, but do people really want what looks to be a watered-down, Bayless sequel? Buzz feels super muted at this point and the marketing doesn’t look like it’s hooking people. It could probably still get to at least 20M thanks to the name and Will Smith, but this isn't hot. 25/30/70 (2.8x, 2.33x)

[kitik]

70 was your OW prediction? Nailed it!

[Eric Deetz]

38 minutes ago, kitik said:

70 was your OW prediction? Nailed it!

sure lets go with that

[Cmasterclay]

After further analysis of the schedule/released trailers, I've adjusted my predictions for this year from "terrible box office year" to "terrible box office year in terms of top-level, 400m hits, but more 150m range breakouts than the last few years." 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Cmasterclay

[filmlover]

So I guess this whole thread is going to be discarded now? 

[MrGlass2]

Absolutely pathetic predictions. 🙄

[grim22]

On 12/28/2019 at 7:28 AM, Eric Lightfoot said:

April 3

The New Mutants: I was going to make a funny joke that was just “this is never coming out lol”, but some people have heard through the grapevine a trailer will drop in January, so I guess this is for reals happening. 

 

 

 

On 12/28/2019 at 3:30 PM, WrathOfHan said:

April 3

 

 

The New Mutants: This is my prediction: GOING TO DISNEY+

 

 

 

Wow, Han may get one.

[Eric Deetz]

I feel so stupid. How did I not consider a worldwide pandemic in my predictions? I'm a mess 😞

[Cmasterclay]

On 1/19/2020 at 1:46 PM, Cmasterclay said:

After further analysis of the schedule/released trailers, I've adjusted my predictions for this year from "terrible box office year" to "terrible box office year in terms of top-level, 400m hits, but more 150m range breakouts than the last few years." 

Whoops!!!!

[Eric Deetz]

On 12/28/2019 at 10:28 AM, Eric Lightfoot said:

Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway: The first movie was a surprise critical and commercial hit, and had amazing legs in spite of Black Panther’s monster success. But I don’t really see the same success here. Not only is it being sandwiched between buzzier kids movies like Onward, Mulan and Trolls, this feels like SLOP, where people liked but didn’t love the first movie, and weren’t super interested in the sequel. It should still have good enough legs, even with Trolls the following two weeks, but expect this to go down a peg. 22/68 (3.09x)

 

On 12/29/2019 at 11:00 AM, Eric Lightfoot said:

Fast & Furious 9: When I was writing this up, I was planning to put this over Hobbs & Shaw, but the more I thought about it, I realized I couldn’t think of any good reason why. Like...at all. Of course, I say this at a time where we have zero marketing to go off of. But with that said, there’s nothing here that makes me confident in this. Fate of the Furious got mediocre reactions from fans and audiences, and Hobbs & Shaw didn’t fare much better. And while I like John Cena and Cardi B, I don’t really think those are exciting cast members that will make people excited for this. And yeah, the rumors of a CGI Paul Walker makes me really uncomfortable, and I think that will be the case for a lot of others. Maybe the story here is really off the wall and fun and will make people excited, but for now...yeah, under Hobbs & Shaw. At least the Dwayne-Tyrese beef will be funny. 65/74/150 (2.31x, 2.03x)

 

On 12/31/2019 at 9:59 AM, Eric Lightfoot said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru: The Secret Life of Pets was liked by critics and audiences, albeit one can argue many were just indifferent, and its sequel still dropped more than half from its predecessor. Meanwhile, Minions was strongly disliked by many, while Despicable Me 3 had pretty “meh” reception too. I guess July is empty enough, especially stuff for kids, that it won’t do that bad. But I feel like at this point, a lot of people’s interest and excitement for the Minions have died down due to the last couple movies just not really landing, and I think people are getting tired of them.

 

The common consensus with people on BOT is about 200M, but I’m gonna go lower. Way lower. Hey, it is the controversial predictions thread. Get ready for an epic drop this summer, because this movie’s going to go low. Yes, even below Pets 2. 40/135 (3.37x)

 

On 12/31/2019 at 10:01 AM, Eric Lightfoot said:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife: I know a lot of people are going nuts for the teaser, but....I don't know. Say what you will about the 2016 reboot, but I think it’s fair to say the toxic reactions toward that film have really damaged the Ghostbusters brand to the GA that even with the old gang back, I doubt even nostalgia will help it all that much. Still, Ghostbusters is a recognizable enough name, and buzz from the trailer so far is good enough that it should at least cross the century mark, though probably under the 2016 film. So hey, consolation prize for fans of that movie. 45/120 (2.67x)

 

On 12/31/2019 at 4:16 PM, Eric Lightfoot said:

Morbius: Even with the Marvel connections, a Jared Leto vampire movie from Sony sounds similar to Screen Gems franchises like Underworld or Resident Evil. I’m sure once a trailer drops, I’ll change my mind, but this just doesn’t sound all that appealing to the GA. We’ll see. 18/40 (2.22x)

 

On 1/1/2020 at 11:25 AM, Eric Lightfoot said:

Escape Room 2: The first Escape Room was a surprise success, with a decent opening, and surprisingly good legs. I was thinking of a higher opening, similar total from this, since I feel that Escape Room, both the movie and concept, are still popular. But having this on the same day as Malignant is really going to diminish audiences for both. One of them really needs to move to late September or something. 18/50 (2.78x)

 

On 1/3/2020 at 10:00 AM, Eric Lightfoot said:

Respect: Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin is flawless casting. Just putting that out there. MGM is already starting their marketing campaign early with this one, and pushing this into awards season shows a lot of confidence here. Aretha Franklin’s also iconic in her own right, which only helps the movie’s chances. Obviously doing 75M or whatever would be great, but I’m gonna be optimistic and say this movie has something special up its sleeve. 25/115 (4.6x)

Just gonna let everybody know in advance I'm going to just copy-paste this stuff for next year's thread, because I'm lazy as h*ck

[WittyUsername]

At this point, 2020 might as well be written off.