The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[Willowra]

Just now, ZattMurdock said:

I can guarantee you that The Marvels will fairly exceed that. This metric that you made up in your head is just to call Quantumania a bomb. MI7 is likely not topping $600m with a $300m budget, not marketing included. Would anyone on their right minds call that a bomb, even if it might not even top Dial of Destiny domestic? No one would do that; and if they did they would be wrong. M:I7? Underperformed. Quantumania? Underperformed. Now people saying that a film like Guardians, Vol. 3 that has made $843m WW with $359m DOM has underperformed is absolute crazy talk.    
 

Why it’s so easy to see that the M:I franchise has a ceiling (something that lot of us have pointed out even before last weekend, myself included) and that fucking Ant-Man has also a ceiling? 

Yes if MI7 is not crossing 600m with 290m budget then it's definitely a box office flop.

[ZattMurdock]

14 minutes ago, Willowra said:

Yes if MI7 is not crossing 600m with 290m budget then it's definitely a box office flop.

Do you know that this isn’t how box office works, right? Do you know that domestic box office is way more important to Hollywood studios than overseas because the obvious exchange rates and how they get different kind of cuts out of other countries, right?
 

 

That’s the main reason why films like Fast X might do ‘well’ overseas but are soon dumped on PVOD anyway. The biggest cut of a box office theatrical run comes from the Domestic market, and this is something that most BOT people conveniently have forgot. It used to be a big point of contention back in the day. Making "the double" of its budget with a significant difference between DOM and OS percentages isn’t the win you think it is.

Edited July 21, 2023 by ZattMurdock

[Claudio]

November will be swooped by This!!! Go Carol!!!

[Sckathian]

35 minutes ago, Willowra said:

Yes if MI7 is not crossing 600m with 290m budget then it's definitely a box office flop.

One of two flops as well since they are tied to their part two. Honestly not sure what this arguement is. Who is saying under 600M is not a flop? Or are we trying to claim Ant Man did not bomb at the box office?

[Liiviig 1998]

30 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Do you know that this isn’t how box office works, right? Do you know that domestic box office is way more important to Hollywood studios than overseas because the obvious exchange rates and how they get different kind of cuts out of other countries, right?
 

 

That’s the main reason why films like Fast X might do ‘well’ overseas but are soon dumped on PVOD anyway. The biggest cut of a box office theatrical run comes from the Domestic market, and this is something that most BOT people conveniently have forgot. It used to be a big point of contention back in the day. Making "the double" of its budget with a significant difference between DOM and OS percentages isn’t the win you think it is.

 

 

MI7 is an OS heavy franchise. It's domestic footprint is not that strong . 

 

TLM was able to breakeven with 550m on 250m budget due to a higher percentage of it's box-office from state side. Where studios get 55% cut of the boxoffice.

 

OS minus china 40%

China 25%

 

TLM will do 295M+ Dom

 

MI7 won't go much past 170m. 

 

There is no way it's breakeven on 600m. 

 

So if this doesn't come to like 650m atleast it's aflop.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[toutvabien]

Great trailer, exactly what needed. Showcases stakes, dynamics and action. Love it.

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

 

 

MI7 is an OS heavy franchise. It's domestic footprint is not that strong . 

 

TLM was able to breakeven with 550m on 250m budget due to a higher percentage of it's box-office from state side. Where studios get 55% cut of the boxoffice.

 

OS minus china 40%

China 25%

 

TLM will do 295M+ Dom

 

MI7 won't go much past 170m. 

 

There is no way it's breakeven on 600m.

 

THANK YOU. It’s like I came back to a parallel universe here sometimes. I know that there is a lot of new people on BOT, but also a lot of the older crew barely try to explain to the new crowd how this even works, and I don’t understand why. 
 

Studios - especially Disney with their blockbusters - are very bullish with how much they will take out of a film’s box office from movie theater chains. It’s not unusual that it goes beyond the 55% rate stateside when it comes to Marvel Studios and Lucasfilm films, same for some major ones from WB.
 

Meanwhile, overseas is a whole different game. The international average from foreign territories is around 40%, but it can vary a lot. China is even worse, because it’s only a 25% cut for the studios, usually when an US film gets inflated with China’s numbers when they break out there they do look good, but they don’t tell the full story.

 

So when we look at OMG one film made $400m OS and barely made past $150m DOM, that’s not that great actually if your budget tops $200m, let alone if it passes $300m excluding marketing. What is wild is that this was very much common knowledge here. Hell, I think that’s common knowledge even among r/boxoffice and that was a place people used to laugh about how dumb some of their takes were. I feel like a lot of the box office convo has been dumbed down for silly flame wars shit without taking in context what the numbers actually mean. Doubling the number of a film’s budget without taking in context that a fairly bigger chunk of its gross comes from overseas is just dumb, and not representative of a film being profitable or not.

 

 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Yeh this is a much better poster than usual from Marvel.

 

Trailer looks fun. Doesn’t seem to give too much away, but shows all the girls in action. I wasn’t big on the first film, but this looks much better. 

[B D Joe]

WB should move Dune 2. Otherwise it will be like how The Little Mermaid and Mission Impossible got their thunder stolen by opening a week before a much bigger movie.

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

MI7 is likely not topping $600m with a $300m budget, not marketing included. Would anyone on their right minds call that a bomb,

… yes? Literally that’s a flop

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Elegiental said:

… yes? Literally that’s a flop

I think that’s an exaggeration. Yeah, it underperformed at the box office. But I always remember what @kowhiteused to say about this and dude clearly knew his shit that films underperforming is actually expected by the studios, especially for those with insane budgets like MI7. Yes, home market isn’t really the same, but films rights are still sold to open tv worldwide the last time I checked, and this is where films like this eventually become profitable. Hell, depending on how hard you break it down, you could argue that a few other MI films were also flops, same for the Fast series, and they keep making those and more MI films.

 

I think an underwhelming performance for films like MI7 and Quantumania is the proper term, and I’d argue that even Dial of Destiny qualifies to that. The Flash and films like John Carter are the ones that I actually think deserves to be called bombs. They are the ones we know for sure we aren’t getting sequels for.

[XXR & Friends]

It’s a day one for me. Let’s goooooo!

[SpiderByte]

5 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Apparently, no one cares about The Marvels though.

 

Coming November a lot of crow will be served. I’m not mean, so I’ll even bring some forks and knives to BOT. 

 

You're correct that most people were not up at 12:21 AM when this tweet was made.

[toutvabien]

Loving Carol and Monica's suits in this one - seems like they have a meaty arc in their relationship as well. Iman will steal the film, obviously, hope she gets plenty of time hanging with Goose. Digging the emotional stakes teased here. Looks fun like a good old fashioned Marvel Studios joint and if what I've read about it is true, this will go over well with fans and casuals.

[ZattMurdock]

16 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

You're correct that most people were not up at 12:21 AM when this tweet was made.

Both Barbie and The Marvels fell a bit but are still trending on Twitter. I think that releasing at midnight was a good move. Linked to Barbie and SDCC. It makes sense to me.

[PrinceRico]

Looks like Nia Decosta understand the assignment 

[Hatebox]

Trailer’s ok - standard late-stage MCU fare - but I think people saying Dune should be worried are nuts. 

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Looks like Nia Decosta understand the assignment 

Sleeper candidate to direct Secret Wars? She is a massive Marvel fangirl and I’m genuinely impressed with how cool the action scenes are looking here. It feels fresh and different than anything done before, kinda like Ladyhawke on acid (I don’t expect the younglings to understand my reference, but still). I’m really digging the concept of what they are going with now that I have a clearer idea of what to expect.

Edited July 21, 2023 by ZattMurdock

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Hatebox said:

Trailer’s ok - standard late-stage MCU fare - but I think people saying Dune should be worried are nuts. 

People here thought that MI7 would blow up. People here disbelieved those that saw Barbie’s and Super Mario’s obvious potential. So yeah, rule of thumb what the most "film twitter" side of BOT isn’t having a good run this year and it’s likely incorrect.

[toutvabien]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Sleeper candidate to direct Secret Wars? She is a massive Marvel fangirl and I’m genuinely impressed with how cool the action scenes are looking here. It feels fresh and different than anything done before, kinda like Ladyhawke on acid (I don’t expect the younglings to understand my reference, but still). I’m really digging the concept of what they are going with now that I have a clearer idea of what to expect.

Still holding out hope Coogler may wanna do it. But maybe he should stay fresh and away so he can deliver a Black Panther 3.

 

Wakanda Forever is my favorite since the first Black Panther lol.