The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[WorkingonaName]

2 hours ago, The GOAT said:

To revive the CBM industry and save it from the laws of diminishing returns, They need a movie that's timeless.

A movie, where 10-15 years down the line, people will still flock to see in theaters like the Dark Knight.  

One gripe with tension, intensity, thrill, animosity, brooding conflict(s), an immense struggle, a great script with epic dialogue, a loud and compelling score. 

I recommend they start ripping off Greeko-Roman Epics. 

This is how Gladiator 2 does a Billion. 

[HummingLemon]

Shang-Chi was a new character when COVID was still an issue and it did $225m domestically. This needs to make *AT LEAST* that much to not be a major disappointment. 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon said:

Shang-Chi was a new character when COVID was still an issue and it did $225m domestically. This needs to make *AT LEAST* that much to not be a major disappointment. 

There was also still way more momentum for MCU when that came out, in spite of COVID. And the movie turned out to be a definite crowd pleaser. I maintain it was an easy 1bil+ huge breakout for that one in a healthier market, really tragic that’s one of the ones that had to get hit by COVID the hardest. 

[HummingLemon]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There was also still way more momentum for MCU when that came out, in spite of COVID. And the movie turned out to be a definite crowd pleaser. I maintain it was an easy 1bil+ huge breakout for that one in a healthier market, really tragic that’s one of the ones that had to get hit by COVID the hardest. 

That is true. The massive difference in general Marvel hype/positivity in Sep 2021 vs Sep 2023 is pretty crazy.

 

Also I don't think Shang-Chi would've done $1 billion without the pandemic. COVID wasn't that bad when it released so it probably would've done like ~$700-750M, somewhere in the realm of Doctor Strange/Guardians of the Galaxy. And also, how much do you think it would've done domestically without the pandemic?

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

That is true. The massive difference in general Marvel hype/positivity in Sep 2021 vs Sep 2023 is pretty crazy.

 

Also I don't think Shang-Chi would've done $1 billion without the pandemic. COVID wasn't that bad when it released so it probably would've done like ~$700-750M, somewhere in the realm of Doctor Strange/Guardians of the Galaxy. And also, how much do you think it would've done domestically without the pandemic?

SC was the first movie to do much of anything post COVID, I think that alone says it all about how impressive it was and how much the pandemic still hurt it. The vast majority of the GA simply would not go to a movie up until a true event movie pulled people back (aka NWH). Release it post NWH and I can’t see how the gross doesn’t double at the very least. Put it more in summer 2022 where we were really finally out of pandemic being much of a factor, and 1b for sure imo. I think it could have been a 500 DOM hit, really seemed like the general reception was phenomenal. 

[HummingLemon]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

SC was the first movie to do much of anything post COVID, I think that alone says it all about how impressive it was and how much the pandemic still hurt it. The vast majority of the GA simply would not go to a movie up until a true event movie pulled people back (aka NWH). Release it post NWH and I can’t see how the gross doesn’t double at the very least. Put it more in summer 2022 where we were really finally out of pandemic being much of a factor, and 1b for sure imo. I think it could have been a 500 DOM hit, really seemed like the general reception was phenomenal. 

Eh I would've liked for that to happen, but I don't think the pandemic hurt it *that* much. My guess is like $300M domestic + $300M OS + $100M China = $700M WW (without a pandemic)

[MovieMan89]

Literally only f9 and Black widow were able to gross anything remotely resembling a blockbuster before SC, and they were major established sequels/characters. I have no idea how it can be said SC wasn’t still fighting a major COVID battle at the box office. People just didn’t want to go back, even if it was considered safer. Without a massive event like NWH, who knows if we’d be back to getting true blockbuster grosses again. A lot of people needed to be dragged kicking and screaming out of their streaming habits to remember the magic of the theater.  
 

We can pretty much see the proof of what NWH did for people returning the the box office when we look at Encanto. The movie opened only a month before NWH, and was obviously a massive crowd pleaser given the complete sensation it became on streaming. Yet it flopped hard at the bo because most people simply weren’t willing to go back before NWH. That was the turning point. 
 

SC doing what it did as a new IP (essentially) in a pre NWH box office climate to me is up there as one of the most impressive box office performances of the decade so far. I have no doubt it was a 1b+ sensation in anything resembling a “normal” climate. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by MovieMan89

[HummingLemon]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Literally only f9 and Black widow were able to gross anything remotely resembling a blockbuster before SC, and they were major established sequels/characters. I have no idea how it can be said SC wasn’t still fighting a major COVID battle at the box office. People just didn’t want to go back, even if it was considered safer. Without a massive event like NWH, who knows if we’d be back to getting true blockbuster grosses again. A lot of people needed to be dragged kicking and screaming out of their streaming habits to remember the magic of the theater.  

 

Yes, there's no denying that COVID hurt it. I just don't think it hurt it to the extent that you're saying. Domestically, I don't think COVID removed 55% of its potential gross.

[ZeroHour]

It would've been a bigger hit without COVID, but Asia in general did not love SC, and China in particular had issues with that movie and Simu Liu that meant it was never going to be released there. That film and old quotes from Chloe Zhao pretty much kicked off Marvel getting blacklisted in China until Ant 3. I do agree it could've done more domestically in better times. People forget that that film restored a lot of confidence among distributors.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

 

Yes, there's no denying that COVID hurt it. I just don't think it hurt it to the extent that you're saying. Domestically, I don't think COVID removed 55% of its potential gross.

See my post edit. Encanto was every bit as big of a sensation as Frozen was once it hit streaming. Yet we’re talking 100m vs 400m DOM gross comparing the two. NWH was the turning point. Everything prior was impacted majorly by COVID. Especially if it wasn’t a huge sequel or something. I’ll give you that something like F9 and Black Widow didn’t get hit as hard, because they came closer to having that event status from being big established IPs that was the only thing getting most people to show up at the time. 

[MovieMan89]

At any rate, to reel this all back in to The Marvels… there’s many reasons it could do worse than SC at the box office because SCs performance was actually quite remarkable. 

[Liiviig 1998]

11 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

It is truly fascinating to see how peoples brains work. Like, outside of one single example in Alice In Wonderland 2, there are no others where a sequel to a $400 mil Domestic (or $1 bil WW) film fell this sharply. It never happens. Even the garbage JW film made over a billion.

 

Just wild to me seeing some of these predictions.

You have to take things into account. Pre covid the market was booming and audience appetite esp for franchise fare was pretty. Had a robust china market .

 

Post covid audiences ain't as willing to dish money out. China officially broke up with Hollywood. OS market is kind of bailing out on the franchise and yeah enthusiasm around it .

 

GOTG 3 sales looked meh 600m ish until WOM bailed it out. Audience was simply willing to turn out until they were convinced . For a fan heavy franchise that's never good. The MCU status is no longer enough to guarantee audiences turning up.

 

Releases before had something going for them.

Marvels has very little going for it.

 

Will it collapse the ridiculous sub 400m WW. No .

 

But sub 200m domestic and sub 500m WW can happen if WOM is mixed/bad ofcorse depending on OW.

 

Realistically this feels like  a TLM to me box office wise . Make alittle less Dom and more OS.

 

Pessimistic 12/75/180/270/450

Realistic.     15/95/250/575-600

Optimistic.  17+/100+/325/700+

 

Nov average for MCU is 2.6x legs even those with good reception . Weekdays are very muted.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The GOAT]

I'm curious to see who wins out between Marvels and Aquaman. Personally, I'm thinking $500 mil for Marvels and $450 mil for Aquaman 2

[SpiderByte]

The Scorsese discourse combined with the "anti-woke" Brie Larson antis means no matter what the reviews or box office is this will be the worst online discourse probably since The Last Jedi

[Valonqar]

Brie Larson isn't a problem. Love or hate >>> indifference. No one give  a flying fuck about the other 2 and they are not new. One was a non-entity on a popular show, the other's show flat out bombed first with its intended audience (Zoomers on D+) and than with non-intended one (boomers on ABC). There's no interest in them and never will be. Marvel tried but didn't work. yet they are elevated to Larson's equals although only Larson is known and has passion for better or worse but passion nonetheless. The other 2 have nothing cause people simply don't care. 

 

Rage tubers talk about Larson. They didn't bother to watch Ms Marvel even to shit on it. Hate watch is still watch (ask She-Hulk). Ms Marvel was met with absolute shrug. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Valonqar

[Madhuvan]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Brie Larson isn't a problem. Love or hate >>> indifference. No one give  a flying fuck about the other 2 and they are not new. One was a non-entity on a popular show, the other's show flat out bombed first with its intended audience (Zoomers on D+) and than with non-intended one (boomers on ABC). There's no interest them. Marvel tried but didn't work. yet they are elevated to Larson's equals although only one of them is known and has passion for better or worse but passion nonetheless. The other 2 have nothing cause people simply don't care. 

Saying since forever this should have been 

 

Captain Marvel 2

 

It's simple,  Marvel is setting up for failure of this and sadly Brie will be blamed. 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Saying since forever this should have been 

 

Captain Marvel 2

 

It's simple,  Marvel is setting up for failure of this and sadly Brie will be blamed. 

 

Not possible since they took the title from her. You can't blame CM when she isn't in the title. 

 

I don't think they set up the movie for fail cause nobody sets 200M+ investment for fail. But there has to be some internal reason why CM of all heroes didn't get her name in the title of her sequel. It makes no sense. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Valonqar

[Firepower]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I don't think they set up the movie for fail cause nobody sets 200M+ investment for fail. But there has to be some internal reason why CM of all heroes didn't get her name in the title of her sequel. It makes no sense. 

Because she's no Iron Man or Captain America, probably.

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Because she's no Iron Man or Captain America, probably.

 

Nor is Shang Chi and you bet his sequel will be titled Shang Chi:Something. Ant Man and the Wasp still had Ant Man in the title and kept him in Quantimania title  even though AM was the smallest (boxofficewise) franchise. Fake Pather still had Black Panther in the title. Etc. No one is IM or CA (Steve Rogers) yet they have their names in the title just fine.

Edited September 26, 2023 by Valonqar

[Arlborn]

This thread is exhausting