The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[ChipDerby]

8 minutes ago, Reed121 said:

Do you think if Guardians of the Galaxy 3 had received a B+ Cinemascore or even a A- Cinemascore it would have opened over 100m? I don’t.

 

CINEMASCORE IS NOT A VALID SERVICE. holy shit people, stop using it. it SUCKS.

[Reed121]

9 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

CINEMASCORE IS NOT A VALID SERVICE. holy shit people, stop using it. it SUCKS.

It’s not a valid service how? Thor Love and Thunder and Multiverse of Madness were destined to have poor jumps/drops over their open weekend and poor legs with their B+ Cinemascores.

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Reed121

[ChipDerby]

Just now, Reed121 said:

It’s not a valid service how? Thor Love and Love Thunder and Multiverse of Madness were destined to have poor jumps/drops over their open weekend and poor legs with their B+ Cinemascores.

 

 

 

Because there is zero (0) connection between cinemascore and the legs of a film. None. Also, cinemascore is done on opening night, and they ask a handful of people. It's not even representative of the audience. ALSO it has nothing to do with opening weekend, so it's ridiculous to say GOTG3 wouldn't have hit $100 mil OW without it. Laughable even.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, Reed121 said:

You chat a lot of nonsense and you are a hypocrite. I literally read a post from you a few pages back dismissing Black Panther for which audience certainly came (800m+ domestic with inflation, A+ Cinemascore) for Aquaman.

 

Look in the mirror, pal. I never dismissed BP's boxoffice. The talk was about inflated reviews and I agreed with another poster that the movie was overpraised, that in 4 years between BP and BPWF it earned overrated reputation (which I believe soured part of the audience that didn't care to come back for the sequel although losing the lead was the biggest reason of course)  and that Aquaman did the same story BP did better in our opinion. No one said BP was not a boxoffice success. The talk was about correlation or lackthereof between reviews and boxoffice. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Valonqar

[WorkingonaName]

Reject Analysis. Take the vibe pill 

[toutvabien]

2 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Because there is zero (0) connection between cinemascore and the legs of a film. None. Also, cinemascore is done on opening night, and they ask a handful of people. It's not even representative of the audience. ALSO it has nothing to do with opening weekend, so it's ridiculous to say GOTG3 wouldn't have hit $100 mil OW without it. Laughable even.

Eh, a more divisive GotG 3 may have just missed the mark instead. Maybe CS isn't the best metric, but that concern wasn't unfounded, considering great buzz and WoM "only" got it to $118m. Which is a bigger drop from the opening of Age of Ultron and Wakanda Forever compared to their predecessors, which no one expected to match. I don't buy the argument that Vol. 2 hit a ceiling of the domestic popularity of the Guardians and that there was nowhere to go but down.

 

If The Marvels gets similar great buzz, it could do more. But the floor is gonna get lower for these if they don't deliver.

[Arlborn]

1 hour ago, Valencia said:

Personally I think this and Deadpool 3 will be fine. They’re preexisting characters whose previous entries had good reception, even if they can’t hit the same highs as their predecessors. Don’t think they will flop though.

 

That current stretch they have planned of Cap 4, Thunderbolts, and Blade is what will kill the brand.

I really need Blade to be good.

 

[Deep Wang]

4 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I really need Blade to be good.

 

 

The thing about the new Blade is that it's impossible to be either better than the original or worse than Trinity.  

 

So it's got that going for it.

[Valencia]

5 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I really need Blade to be good.

 

If it even ends up getting made at all.

 

Ali is turning 50 in a couple months.

 

He’s already too old for a non CGI hero like Blade now.

[Reed121]

8 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Because there is zero (0) connection between cinemascore and the legs of a film. None. Also, cinemascore is done on opening night, and they ask a handful of people. It's not even representative of the audience. ALSO it has nothing to do with opening weekend, so it's ridiculous to say GOTG3 wouldn't have hit $100 mil OW without it. Laughable even.

Cinemascore is a reliable indicator of legs.
Compare the jumps and drops over opening weekend of Guardians 3 and Ant Man Quantumania both movies with a very similar Thursday previews number.

 

[Liiviig 1998]

52 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

I'm convinced that nobody here actually tracks box office and just goes off *vibes*.

 

The state the MCU is currently in? 6 films in a row have opened to $105+ mil. Freaking Black Widow opened over $80 mil in the middle of a pandemic and with no actual superheroes. The Marvels is following up 1 of only 7 MCU films that had a 3.0+ multiplier, the following film after each of those previous films all exploded on OW. And people are predicting this to go the OTHER way? lmao just not serious people

BW 2.28*

SC. 2.97*

Eternals 2.3*

NWH. 3.0+

DS2. 2.2*

TLT 2.4*

BP. 2.5*

QM 2.04*

Guardians 3  3.0+

 

Nov MCU 

DS  2.9*

TDW 2.4*

Ragnarok 2.53*

BP 2.5*

 

2.4-2.5 * legs seems reasonable to me . Nov  weekdays are just shit even BP with A and thanksgiving and Christmas  festivities couldn't go above  2.5.

 

Guardians 3 while equally having strong WOM also had the benefit of summer which had strong weekdays from June onwards.

 

IM for MCU has been 5-6 range lately  . Missing 100m is not that absurd .

 

Sure presales haven't started . Doesn't feel like 17M+ previews to me But will see 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[Liiviig 1998]

23 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Because there is zero (0) connection between cinemascore and the legs of a film. None. Also, cinemascore is done on opening night, and they ask a handful of people. It's not even representative of the audience. ALSO it has nothing to do with opening weekend, so it's ridiculous to say GOTG3 wouldn't have hit $100 mil OW without it. Laughable even.

LMAO.

 

Wow all the  B CS MCU has recieved the current phase  have all got shitty legs.

 

BVS  ,flash  to mention but a few . Sure are there are some very few outliers but  B level CS is just not good for CBMs

 

There is definitely a colleration. Saying there is 0 connection is ridiculous.

 

 

 

[Arlborn]

9 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The thing about the new Blade is that it's impossible to be either better than the original or worse than Trinity.  

 

So it's got that going for it.

[SpiderByte]

12 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The thing about the new Blade is that it's impossible to be either better than the original or worse than Trinity.  

 

So it's got that going for it.

There are people who think that Blades gonna cameo in Deadpool 3 and like 

 

Why would anyone from the Trinity cast work with Snipes again when they probably all hate him 

[Liiviig 1998]

36 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

Eh, a more divisive GotG 3 may have just missed the mark instead. Maybe CS isn't the best metric, but that concern wasn't unfounded, considering great buzz and WoM "only" got it to $118m. Which is a bigger drop from the opening of Age of Ultron and Wakanda Forever compared to their predecessors, which no one expected to match. I don't buy the argument that Vol. 2 hit a ceiling of the domestic popularity of the Guardians and that there was nowhere to go but down.

 

If The Marvels gets similar great buzz, it could do more. But the floor is gonna get lower for these if they don't deliver.

It alongside posttrak are the most reliable metrics for gauging Audience.

 

We have it seen it work it again and again.

 

The only complexity around it is how it's different from genre to genre.

 

For horrors . Any CS as long as it's not an F .

CS in the A range  is so rare in horror.

 

Adult dramas and other r rated affairs are generally fine as long as it B range . Some do well even in C like wolf of wall street.

 

For animation anything below A- is just not good  . Audience is generally easy to please.

 

For blockbusters and popcorn crowdpleasers like most of the major franchises . A- and above is good . B+ is ok .

 

But the MCU is a little more harsher . Anything below A- is just not good at all.

 

Phase 1 has some  A- and 1 B+  them but the franchise was starting out and hadn't grown a strong fanbases but now but now after it's massive streak  of A CS and above .

Even A- is now just considered ok by  MCU standards . Just see antman 2 and BW for reference.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[Bob Train]

40 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Because there is zero (0) connection between cinemascore and the legs of a film. None. Also, cinemascore is done on opening night, and they ask a handful of people. It's not even representative of the audience. ALSO it has nothing to do with opening weekend, so it's ridiculous to say GOTG3 wouldn't have hit $100 mil OW without it. Laughable even.

If you look at the data, there very clearly is a connection. Every movie this summer that had >3x legs had A or A+ Cinemascore (GOTG3, TLM, ATSV, Elemental, SOF, MI7, Barbie, Oppenheimer, TMNT). The only ones that didn't are horror like TTM or Boogeyman.

[Bob Train]

30 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

BW 2.28*

SC. 2.97*

Eternals 2.3*

NWH. 3.0+

DS2. 2.2*

TLT 2.4*

BP. 2.5*

QM 2.04*

Guardians 3  3.0+

 

Nov MCU 

DS  2.9*

TDW 2.4*

Ragnarok 2.53*

BP 2.5*

 

2.4-2.5 * legs seems reasonable to me . Nov  weekdays are just shit even BP with A and thanksgiving and Christmas  festivities couldn't go above  2.5.

 

Guardians 3 while equally having strong WOM also had the benefit of summer which had strong weekdays from June onwards.

 

IM for MCU has been 5-6 range lately  . Missing 100m is not that absurd .

 

Sure presales haven't started . Doesn't feel like 17M+ previews to me But will see 

WF being a 3-hour-long funeral killed it's legs. It didn't have rewatchability like the first one. February weekdays are just as bad as November weekdays, so can't be blamed on release date.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Bob Train

[TheFlatLannister]

I will say The Marvels going sub $30M is a lot more likely than $100M+ in China 

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, toutvabien said:

Eh, a more divisive GotG 3 may have just missed the mark instead. Maybe CS isn't the best metric, but that concern wasn't unfounded, considering great buzz and WoM "only" got it to $118m. Which is a bigger drop from the opening of Age of Ultron and Wakanda Forever compared to their predecessors, which no one expected to match. I don't buy the argument that Vol. 2 hit a ceiling of the domestic popularity of the Guardians and that there was nowhere to go but down.

 

If The Marvels gets similar great buzz, it could do more. But the floor is gonna get lower for these if they don't deliver.

 

There are many reasons GOTG3 opened lower. The massive wait between films, it directly followed a bad MCU film, and it looked much darker. It was the reviews that drove up the OW (as it recovered massively in presales closer to OW) and the word of mouth that drove the multiplier.

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

LMAO.

 

Wow all the  B CS MCU has recieved the current phase  have all got shitty legs.

 

BVS  ,flash  to mention but a few . Sure are there are some very few outliers but  B level CS is just not good for CBMs

 

There is definitely a colleration. Saying there is 0 connection is ridiculous.

 

 

 

 

Prove it then.