The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, Bob Train said:

I second this. I am expecting Cap 4, Thunderbolts, Aquaman 2, Blade to open in the 50m range.

 

Only CBM that have a unique style and vibe like Joker 2, Batman 2, and Spider-Verse 3 will be able to pull colossal opening anymore.

 

The days of CBMs with characters no one cares about pulling huge numbers just because society was on a CBM high are over.

 

The factory-made/generic style that most Marvel and DC movies have had in the last decade will be the downfall of the genre.

I’m not sold on Joker having a mega opening. Maybe something like $100m-$110m 

[PlatnumRoyce]

29 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

hows it doing in comparison to s1?

Both do very well though I'm unclear how they directly compare to each other. I read Loki their anecdotes as saying Loki S2 GLOBAL opening was vaguely 15-25% bigger than Ahsoka's opening (you need to compare a 5 versus 3 day opening). Now look at D+ US nielsen openings. 13.8M for Ahsoa so let's say vaguely 15.5M/16M estimate for Loki S2 in the US. 

 

 

I imagine there's some "number of subscribers" adjustment someone could apply but this looks to clearly place Loki in third place behind Mando and Obi-Wan with some debate about what comes after that.

Here's some great stuff from nonpaywalled aspects of entertainment strategy guy. Take a look if you're interested in those questions. 

 

Hawkeye's OW nielsen is weirdly high relative to its total run  so I'm going to post another graph.
 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[SpiderByte]

38 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

hows it doing in comparison to s1?

The metrics that are available weren't available for season 1, since it's only now Disney's ever released any kind of numbers themselves. Season 1 only had Samba TV basically, which is a sliver of a portion of US viewers and doesn't seem all that reliable. Disney said it's the best premiere of the year after Mandalorian 3...which they didnt release numbers for. Hollywood for you. 

[werstanding]

South Korea is considered a crucial international market for the MCU, often ranking among the top territories for box office revenue for these films. Similar to their movies Kdramas have also gained popularity internationally.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

The metrics that are available weren't available for season 1, since it's only now Disney's ever released any kind of numbers themselves. Season 1 only had Samba TV basically, which is a sliver of a portion of US viewers and doesn't seem all that reliable. Disney said it's the best premiere of the year after Mandalorian 3...which they didnt release numbers for. Hollywood for you. 

 

Not true.  Loki S1 has Nielsen numbers and we'll be able to do something of a direct compare/contrast in about three weeks.  Maybe sooner if someone like TVGrimReaper leaks week 1 data.

 

I say something of a direct compare/contrast as Loki S2 releases on Fridays (technically Thur 6pm) while Loki S1 released on Wednesdays (at midnight), which will mean Loki S1 will have an advantage at first before things even out over the fullness of time.

 

===

 

But from the Streaming Tracking thread:

 

Quote

Loki

 

Week 1 — 731M mins (731M mins) / 51 mins (51 mins) - 14.3M views

Week 2 — 886M mins (1617M mins) / 54 mins (105 mins) — 15.4M views

Week 3 — 713M mins (2330M mins) / 42 mins (147 mins) — 15.85M views

Week 4 — 813M mins (3143M mins) / 48 mins (195 mins) — 16.1M viewss

Week 5 — 1080M mins (4223M mins) / 49 mins (244 mins) — 17.3M views

Week 6 — 1011M mins (5234M mins) / 46 mins (290 mins) — 18M views

Week 7 — 386M mins (5620M mins) / 0 mins (290 mins) — 19.4M views

Wk8 — 180M mins (5800M mins)/ 0 mins (290 mins) — 20M views

 

I'll be updating it in my own format once we start getting the numbers in.

 

(and, yes, that is US only — while Disney's number was almost certainly global)

((and, yes again, there will be a difference between Disney's direct measurement and Nielsen's sampling — but as I said, it'll be good for a direct compare/contrast once a couple of weeks have rolled by to even out calendar differences))

Edited October 11, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Not true.  Loki S1 has Nielsen numbers and we'll be able to do something of a direct compare/contrast in about three weeks.  Maybe sooner if someone like TVGrimReaper leaks week 1 data.

 

I say something of a direct compare/contrast as Loki S2 releases on Fridays (technically Thur 6pm) while Loki S1 released on Wednesdays (at midnight), which will mean Loki S1 will have an advantage at first before things even out over the fullness of time.

 

===

 

But from the Streaming Tracking thread:

 

 

I'll be updating it in my own format once we start getting the numbers in.

 

(and, yes, that is US only — while Disney's number was almost certainly global)

((and, yes again, there will be a difference between Disney's direct measurement and Nielsen's sampling — but as I said, it'll be good for a direct compare/contrast once a couple of weeks have rolled by to even out calendar differences))

 

For context:

 

Ahsoka	Min View (Weekly)	Min Added (Weekly)		Min View (Total)	Minutes (Total)		Views (Total)
Week 1	829m	97		829m	97		8.55m

 

Note that Ahsoka started with two episodes which greatly inflated the minutes watched.

 

I do have Mando S3 numbers as well, but a giant asterisk needs to be applied there due to back catalogue:

 

Mando	Min View (Weekly)	Min Added (Weekly)		Min View (Total)	Minutes (Total)		Views (Total)
S3 Week 1	823m	35		17348m	673		25.78m

 

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE ON THE ABOVE:  

 

I snipped out all of the S1 and S2 data from the above chart, which is why the total views doesn't exactly match up with the weekly views/weekly minutes as the total views is a cumulative chart. 

 

If one wants to see the current chart in full, here it is behind a spoiler box:

 

Spoiler

Mando	Min View (Weekly)	Min Added (Weekly)		Min View (Total)	Minutes (Total)		Views (Total)
Season 1	5420m*	315		5420m	315		17.21m
S2 Week 1	1032m	52		6452m	367		17.58m
S2 Week 2	955m	40		7407m	407		18.20m
S2 Week 3	873m	35		8280m	442		18.73m
S2 Week 4	939m	37		9219m	479		19.25m
S2 Week 5	1210m	45		10429m	524		19.90m
S2 Week 6	994m	32		11423m	556		20.54m
S2 Week 7	1042m	38		12465m	594		20.98m
S2 Week 8	1336m	44		13801m	638		21.63m
S2 Week 9	1024m	—		14825m	638		23.24m
S2 Week 10	707m	—		15532m	638		24.34m
S2 Week 11	441m	—		15973m	638		25.04m
S2 Week 12	339m	—		16312m	638		25.57m
S3 Week -1	213m*	—		16525m	638		25.90m
S3 Week 1	823m	35		17348m	673		25.78m
S3 Week 2	889m	42		18237m	715		25.51m
S3 Week 3	1115m	56		19352m	771		25.10m
S3 Week 4	795m	31		20147m	802		25.12m
S3 Week 5	878m	41		21025m	843		24.94m
S3 Week 6	1031m	45		22056m	888		24.84m
S3 Week 7	1025m	51		23081m	939		24.58m
S3 Week 8	1012m	39		24093m	978		24.63m
S3 Week 9	498m	—		24591m	978		25.14m
S3 Week 10	319m	—		24910m	978		25.47m
S3 Week 11	242m	—		25152m	978		25.72m
S3 Week 12	205m	—		25357m	978		25.93m

* Off the Nielsen Charts or not compiled at the time, but data supplied by third party sources.

 

 

Was probably somewhere between 17m and 21m views for Mando S3 premiere in that five day period as a pure ass-pull guesstimate.

 

Again, the five day/three day discrepancy is going to matter here.

 

Also something that matters.  Nielsen reports entire catalogue viewing of a program while I am fairly certainly that presser just mentioned S2 premiere numbers.  So it is likely that the Nielsen number is going to be higher than what Disney suggested as even if the vast majority of folks only watched the S2 premiere, there will still be folks catching up on/rewatching S1, especially in the MTWT period before the release.

 

....

 

...

 

...

 

Yes all of this ***IS*** a GIGANTIC headache to try to sort out even in the best of times!

 

Now  you know (one of the reasons) why the WGA and SAG were/are so keen to get hard verifiable streaming viewing data as part of their negotiated contracts!!! 👍

[The GOAT]

 

I Tried making some posters with Bing.

https://www.bing.com/images/create/

 

Spoiler

 

 

[Madhuvan]

1 hour ago, The GOAT said:

 

I Tried making some posters with Bing.

https://www.bing.com/images/create/

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

The Captain Marvel 2 which we deserved 

 

It should have been full space adventure.

[JustLurking]

4 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Both do very well though I'm unclear how they directly compare to each other. I read Loki their anecdotes as saying Loki S2 GLOBAL opening was vaguely 15-25% bigger than Ahsoka's opening (you need to compare a 5 versus 3 day opening). Now look at D+ US nielsen openings. 13.8M for Ahsoa so let's say vaguely 15.5M/16M estimate for Loki S2 in the US. 

 

 

I imagine there's some "number of subscribers" adjustment someone could apply but this looks to clearly place Loki in third place behind Mando and Obi-Wan with some debate about what comes after that.

Here's some great stuff from nonpaywalled aspects of entertainment strategy guy. Take a look if you're interested in those questions. 

 

Hawkeye's OW nielsen is weirdly high relative to its total run  so I'm going to post another graph.
 

 

 

Ahsoka skews more US than Loki will for sure so I wouldn't expect it to keep that ratio, could even see it a bit under Ahsoka in the US.

[fabiopazzo2]

Omg! What a surprise 

none should expect this :00000000

 

 

except for The guys who lives on earth 

[Sckathian]

What’s the latest a film has rebranded before launch? I know Birds of Prey did during its run but just wondering if there is precedent before release? 
 

Everything around this film has always been a big red flag that Marvel were getting a bit arrogant/buying into their own hype. Tying your 1bn star to Disney+ Show stars, it’s just absolutely fucking bizzare.

 

Marvel deserve a loss on this one, they’re in for a hard road looking at their current slate (DP should do well though) and whilst Fantastic Four is a fan darling it’s not exactly proven box office gold…

[Kon]

31 minutes ago, Sckathian said:

What’s the latest a film has rebranded before launch? I know Birds of Prey did during its run but just wondering if there is precedent before release? 
 

Everything around this film has always been a big red flag that Marvel were getting a bit arrogant/buying into their own hype. Tying your 1bn star to Disney+ Show stars, it’s just absolutely fucking bizzare.

 

Marvel deserve a loss on this one, they’re in for a hard road looking at their current slate (DP should do well though) and whilst Fantastic Four is a fan darling it’s not exactly proven box office gold…

 

Honestly, I always suspected Marvel don't feel so sure about Captain Marvel's real popularity, that's why they changed the name to Marvels.

 

I know the first Captain Marvel movie makes a billion, but the promotion likely boost this in a good amount. It was promoted as the first female lead movie in the MCU. Not to mention that there was promoted with a connection to Endgame (it was even promoted in a Infinity War post-credit scene).

 

Connecting this movie to Disney + series seems bizarre now, but I assume they have good expectatives for Ms. Marvel and Secret Invasion.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Kon

[SpiderByte]

I just don't buy the logic that somehow, despite the last 6 movies opening over 100 mil, it's the 7th that doesnt that is now seen as the ceiling for all future releases.

Edited October 11, 2023 by SpiderByte

[eddyxx]

8 hours ago, AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:

 

I don't think McGuire and Garfield will be the main pull for that movie. We've seen them together with Holland on screen before. Not that the movie won't get hyped due to their presence, but Secret Wars will likely open huge regardlesss if they are there or not.

 

 

 

That’s not the 2 returning actors I was talking about.

[Madhuvan]

Lemme say it again

 

My 100th time

 

This movie should have been Captain Marvel 2

 

Would have attracted way more audience. 

Most people don't know this is sequel of CM and that will affect

[Willowra]

@SpiderByte @AN9815 Do you think they would make Captain Marvel 3 if this makes less than 300m WW or even 400m WW, as tracking suggests? She won't get a sequel. Less than 300m would mean that the majority of MCU fans can't stand Captain Marvel; they either hate her or don't care about her, so unless she leads Avengers 5, this would be the last movie being led by Captain Marvel in the MCU, and if she leads Avengers 5, then Avengers 5 will meet the same fate as The Marvels. So either this movie will end Captain Marvel's run in the MCU or Captain Marvel will make sure that Avengers 5 does less than 200 DOM total.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Willowra

[SpiderByte]

So now fans hate the movie despite the fact that nobody's seen it?

[Kon]

12 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Lemme say it again

 

My 100th time

 

This movie should have been Captain Marvel 2

 

Would have attracted way more audience. 

Most people don't know this is sequel of CM and that will affect

 

I really doubt most people wouldn't know that a movie called The Marvels is a sequel to Captain Marvel. Not to mention that the promotion is clearly focusing on Carol.

 

As I said, I think the decision to change the name was because Marvel didn't trust on Captain Marvel's popularity.

[toutvabien]

6 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Lemme say it again

 

My 100th time

 

This movie should have been Captain Marvel 2

 

Would have attracted way more audience. 

Most people don't know this is sequel of CM and that will affect

I laughed at the suggestion that the title was gonna harm this in any way just weeks ago. But if this gets great reviews and still opens below $100m, I'll have admit that maybe it played a bigger role than I originally thought it could.

 

An interesting thought I had is that if they advertized this as a Captain Marvel 2 and then Monica and Kamala (in the eyes of GA, a Captain Marvel superfan they wouldn't have seen before) getting significant co-lead roles may have backfired and have people complain that it wasn't Carol focused enough. With this title, it's more likely that people are surprised by how much Carol-focused it actually is and build buzz for that.

[Human]

17 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

So now fans hate the movie despite the fact that nobody's seen it?

Yes.  Many people hate movies without seeing them.  My brother hates movies based on their plot summaries on wikipedia.