The Flash | June 16 2023 | Ezra Miller, Michael Keaton | We’re stoping the count at a Nice 69% RT (it’s 72% For Real) | Please Remember that Your Enjoyment Of The Film is Not Based On Others Opinions And To Be Nice To Each Other

[TheFlatLannister]

6 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home made $2B during an ongoing pandemic one year and half ago. There is no superhero fatigue, like Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse are proving to us.

 

Chris Miller hits the nail in the head here:

 

 

Not only that, WB and DC fans would be crazy to expect anything close to what Spider-Man: No Way Home for a Flash film with literally 0 build up. No Way Home was a 20 years in the making pay off featuring the 3 live iterations of Peter Parker and culminating after Avengers: Endgame, it was a snowball of a perfect storm. For DC to reach this sort of highs, they need proper build up, proper planning, not just cling to rush whatever the MCU is doing. Starting a Flash film by making it a multiverse story is a tough sell not because it’s novel, it’s because it has been done in the past with characters that people actually care about.

 

Would've loved to see what NWH potential was in a normal world with a full China release

 

Probably $800M+ OW $2.3B+ WW 

DOM woud've gone above Endgame 

[excel1]

Serious Excel for a (increasingly rare) moment with some thoughts. 

 

1 thing that is making this really unpredictable is the baseline of Black Adam. Black Adam opened to $67m opening weekend, which was widely seen as a solid opening, but had poor staying power and is now largely seen as a drop. 

 

Compared to THE FLASH, Black Adam had:

1. much worse character name recognition - Black Adam is a nobody compared to Flash. Add in Batman?
2. far worse reviews
3. worse marketing
4. less promising release date

What it did have is:

1. a true megastar in the lead role
2. the last minute buzz around the Cavill Cameo
3. Overarching is the dynamic that Black Adam was still seen within the CBM world as being part of a growing, expanding universe, where as The Flash is widely seen as the reboot.

The seemingly plausible notion that The Flash could open below Black Adam, possibly by as much as $10 million, despite the above context is beyond puzzling. Just 3 weeks ago, BOX OFFICE PRO projected an opening weekend range with a high end of $140m. 

 

How could boxofficepro and everyone else be so wrong?

 

Was The Rock that large of a draw? Did the Cavill inclusion create that much excitement? Both are probably true to an extent, which makes WB's decision to move on from both so quickly look like a true gamble.  What is also likely severely muting the buzz for The Flash is the restart factor.  Nobody knows if what we are about to watch in The Flash actually means anything long term which is a real buzzkill.

 

If we move in to the much more recent Transformer comparison, things get even more bizarre.

 

1 hour ago, LVB said:

The movie was so overhyped that now that the nerds know it's not perfect they're trashing it all over social media. Plus, we've heard reactions for so many weeks now, that it seems like its cultural peak has already passed and the movie hasn't even been released yet.

 

Cultural peak? Flash has shared the limelight with multiple major films over the last several weeks. It's cultural peak is clearly this weekend, be serious. 

 

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

I get it, but man I just also do not get it lol. Like, Transformers is a completely tired franchise and this new one brought almost literally nothing new to the table and had super strong audience reactions/walkups. I'd love to actually know why Flash just isn't clicking? Is it because there was an 8 season long show? Is it because of the ZS baggage? I have a really hard time thinking it's the VFX when everything in the trailers/tv spots (which the majority of the population would see, rather than the clips) is mostly fine.

 

I'm seeing it on Thursday, and obviously it's not like it's going to be a continuing series. It's just a bummer to see it faltering like this. Especially since it has decent reviews, the Batman aspect, etc etc.

 

Nobody cares about poor looking CGI lol id they not watch Endgame? I think the restart factor is the big thing. Nobody knows what this is long term and that really affects things.

 

52 minutes ago, GambitPool said:

Flash though... Flash has Keaton and Supergirl - who's played by a newcomer with no pre-established connection. Keaton can't carry everything on his own. He's not even the beloved Batman of the past 18 years. That'd go to Bale. Also, this may be the biggest factor against it, the title character really isn't cared about by the general public. Flash showed up in a legendary bomb and a fan-driven director's cut that did low numbers on HBO Max after years of demand and build-up. 

 

Doesn't help the lead actor can't do promotion for their own film. 

 

I really think that was has muted the buzz compared to what was expected is that this looks like an origin film that would normally be a springboard for a potential franchisee while in reality it is serving as the end of something and nobody knows what comes next.

 

In that sense, it's a large messaging fail from WB despite the scope of their marketing. They should have announced THE FLASH 2 3 months ago, for example, so that everybody would know this isn't a random one off.

 

The hopeful message: we have seen this before, many times over.

• Batman was dead after Batman & Robin. Batman Begins opening weekend paid for it. Batman Begins quality brought it back quick.
• James Bond was dead after License to Kill. Goldeneye opens MEH but the quality creates tons of new fans. Die Another Day again kills Bond and Casino Royale suffers as a result, but the quality creates new fans.
• The Amazing Spider-man kills the appeal until Tom Holland's well received portrayal saves it.

 

If the audience reaction to The Flash is as strong as it looks to be, DO NOT write this thing off because midnights and opening day are weak. 

Edited June 12, 2023 by excel1

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

Would've loved to see what NWH potential was in a normal world with a full China release

 

Probably $800M+ OW $2.3B+ WW 

DOM woud've gone above Endgame 

It was absolute insanity, yes. And reminder that the situation was absolutely nothing like it is right now. We were very much still during the pandemic, with some places still facing hard lockdowns, not just China. I think it’s the box office story of the decade so far next to Avatar 2.

[Mojoguy]

There is NO superhero movie fatigue, just BAD superhero movie fatigue as proven with Ant 3, Shazam 2, and Black Adam.

 

More and more people are waiting for good reviews first before going to see them, just look at GOTG3's disappointing OW but great legs.

[21C]

17 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Nobody cares about poor looking CGI lol id they not watch Endgame? I think the restart factor is the big thing. Nobody knows what this is long term and that really affects things.

 

Endgame? Seriously? That's gonna be your point of comparison? Audiences were already pre-determined to be into Endgame because they had about a thousand reasons to be excited for that film. It's a whole different thing when a film that audiences already are skeptical off presents itself with trailers that have visuals that receive this amount of widespread criticism.  Also what's most likely to have an effect on the general audience: The news of a reboot that unless they're plugged into this kind of stuff they probably barely know about, or the visuals of the trailers and TV spots that they're seeing with their own two eyes? 

I'm not saying it's the only factor, but it's probably a factor. And I do think it's  a bigger factor than blaming the reboot or whatever, because if the film looked better, it could overcome the reboot news more easily. 

17 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

 

If the audience reaction to The Flash is as strong as it looks to be, DO NOT write this thing off because midnights and opening day are weak. 

Bro what audience reaction are you talking about? Everyone that's not a hardcore DC fan is at best saying "the film is ok".

Edited June 13, 2023 by 21C

[Mojoguy]

20 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Spider-Man: No Way Home made $2B during an ongoing pandemic one year and half ago.

$1.92 billion

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

$1.92 billion

What can I say… superhero fatigue.

[PlatnumRoyce]

21 minutes ago, excel1 said:

In that sense, it's a large messaging fail from WB despite the scope of their marketing. They should have announced THE FLASH 2 3 months ago, for example, so that everybody would know this isn't a random one off.

 

...and that's how you get Ezra Miller headlines. This is literally a movie whose first and second biggest characters are played by Ezra Miller and they're forced to run away from that marketing pitch. 

I don't really see how you can blame marketing here when it's a macro level decision about whether or not you're publicly in bed with Miller going forward. They've done everything else to hype up the quality of the film so this is clearly strategic. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[PrinceRico]

This coming after ATSV was a big mistake

[excel1]

5 minutes ago, 21C said:

Endgame? Seriously? That's gonna be your point of comparison? Audiences were already pre-determined to be into Endgame because they had about a thousand reasons to be excited for that film. It's a whole different thing when a film that audiences already are skeptical off presents itself with trailers that have visuals that receive this amount of widespread criticism.  Also what's most likely to have an effect on the general audience: The news of a reboot that unless they're plugged into this kind of stuff they probably barely know about, or the visuals of the trailers and TV spot that they're seeing with their own two eyes? 

 

You should study marketing professionally. The Flash FX look exactly like every other major film out there. It's a moot point. 

 

5 minutes ago, 21C said:

Bro what audience reaction are you talking about? Everyone that's not a hardcore DC fan is at best saying "the film is ok".

 

Nah. Our own Keyser Soze, Jeremy Jahns, and many others know a crowd pleaser when they see and saying the film is firmly in that camp. There is a GIGANTIC difference between "fun popcorn crowd pleaser" and "the film is ok".

[Murloc]

Factors I think that are landing this movie below the hopeful predictions:

 

Man of Steel did okay in the box office but wasn't an event movie or critically liked. So returning to those events isn't a massive draw.

 

Keaton was last Batman 31 years ago. There have been 5 other live action Batman actors since. And this isn't a Batman movie. The audience connection just isn't there.

 

Supergirl is Superman's cousin. That the interesting start point of the character and they are doing this without Superman.

 

Ezra can't do promotion. The cheapest and most effective marketing you can do is to get your man actor some interviews. This didn't and couldn't happen with Ezra.

 

The trailer CGI is bad.

 

The DC brand is not good at the moment.

 

Flashpoint is terrible for a character we hardly know.

[excel1]

Just now, PlatnumRoyce said:

...and that's how you get Ezra Miller headlines. 

 

I don't think your average person knows or cares. Not to be insensitive, but it is what it is. Look into the backgrounds of many of the worlds current most popular musicians and actors etc. Every day people just don't care.  

[BluKyberCrystal]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

You should study marketing professionally. The Flash FX look exactly like every other major film out there. It's a moot point. 

They really, really don't.

[21C]

Just now, excel1 said:

 

You should study marketing professionally. The Flash FX look exactly like every other major film out there. It's a moot point. 

 

Ironically... I do. And no it doesn't, it really doesn't lmfao. Every single time a TV Spot of this, every single time a still gets released, every single time a trailer got released the amount of widespread criticism over the visual in social media was rampant in a way that I haven't seen for any other blockbuster except for maybe Quantumania. I've legitimately never seen a reaction like this and I follow all CBMs that release somewhat closely.  Maybe some of these films get bashed and mocked in a widespread manner for their CGI after the film releases, but rarely ever since its marketing and TV spots. 
 

 

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Nah. Our own Keyser Soze, Jeremy Jahns, and many others know a crowd pleaser when they see and saying the film is firmly in that camp. There is a GIGANTIC difference between "fun popcorn crowd pleaser" and "the film is ok".

Jeremy Jahn's score was literally a "It's a good time, no alcohol required", that's pretty much "it's ok".

[PlatnumRoyce]

26 minutes ago, excel1 said:

The hopeful message: we have seen this before, many times over.

•  

There's also Mission Impossible where the franchise rebounded but has never regained "top 2-3 biggest film of the year" status the first two films achieved. 

[excel1]

2 minutes ago, 21C said:

Ironically... I do. And no it doesn't, it really doesn't lmfao. Every single time a TV Spot of this, every single time a still gets released, every single time a trailer got released the amount of widespread criticism over the visual in social media was rampant in a way that I haven't seen for any other blockbuster except for maybe Quantumania. I've legitimately never seen a reaction like this and I follow all CBMs that release somewhat closely.  Maybe some of these films get bashed and mocked in a widespread manner for their CGI after the film releases, but rarely ever since its marketing and TV spots. 
 

 

You named another blockbuster from like 2 months ago. You're weighing this one too heavily. the low cgi images don't even register in every day persons mind. 

 

2 minutes ago, 21C said:

Jeremy Jahn's score was literally a "It's a good time, no alcohol required", that's pretty much "it's ok".

 

No it is not lmao

[Super]

I know WB has secured TV spots for The Flash during like NBA games, I’m someone who doesn’t usually watch cable but last night and this evening I’ve tuned into Food Network and I have yet to see a single TV spot for The Flash.

 

I’ve seen many for Indy 5 and Elemental but nothing for Flash and I find that strange. Idk if it’s just this particular channel since it maybe outside the target demo but this is the week for the big final push, can anyone else comment on seeing ads on cable? 

[21C]

11 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

You named another blockbuster from like 2 months ago. You're weighing this one too heavily. the low cgi images don't even register in every day persons mind. 

 

When a piece of marketing enters the mind of the person it's being targeted to, maybe they don't think too much about it, but they do process the visual information that's being given to them. And in this case, when it's about a product they're already skeptical off or don't have much interest in from the get-go, seeing visuals that do not immediately seem appealing to them is a huge problem because, since they aren't gonna think too much about it, their reaction is just gonna be an "Eh, not sold.", without thinking further on things like "but cgi isn't the complete film" "but the film might be good", etc. Add that with all the rest of the factors that are causing this film to underperform and the general audience has no reason to give the benefit of the doubt to this film, so they aren't giving it. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by 21C

[John Marston]

Ezra Miller absolutely is a factor.  In addition to the legal controversies (which more people probably know about than people want to admit. It was reported in major media outlets and things spread faster and wider thanks to social media) Ezra simply does not have the looks or charisma of a leading man. May be harsh but it is true

[ZattMurdock]