Lightyear | 6/17/22 | Disney/Pixar | PUPPY INTERVIEW FRIDAY SO NO REASON TO SEE MOVIE NOW. FLOP INCOMING

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Tweet from the Doctor Strange account says "only in theaters"

 

 

Tweet from the Lightyear account does not say "only in theaters" nor "in theaters"

 

 

You don't find that the tiniest bit weird or off-putting? At all?

 

 

What I see it as is Disney being a lot more confident in the Covid situation in May now than they were about the Covid situation in June a month ago.

[Eric Lasagna]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

 

 

What I see it as is Disney being a lot more confident in the Covid situation in May now than they were about the Covid situation in June a month ago.

Literally from a couple days after the Lightyear tweet. Sorry, until I see hard evidence that it will 100% be only in theaters, no matter what, I'm assuming the worst. It's best to expect the worst than set yourself up for disappointent

 

 

[Porthos]

Whole lotta doomscrolling... doom tea leaf reading? going on in this thread.  Way too much, really.

 

====

 

Being suspicious/wary of Disney is healthy IMO, given their track record.  But there comes a point where it moves from skepticism to outright paranoia and I think too many folks here are slipping into the latter.

 

Turning Red was a shock, yes.  But as @filmlover rightfully pointed out, this is staying theatrical until Disney announces it isn't.  Endlessly worrying about it/scrutinizing every last statement they say like it was from QAnon Nostradamus is only gonna give you an ulcer.  

 

EC has a source inside of Disney that it's staying and I believe them.  It's also true that unless that source is Bob Chapek, plans can change.  Hell it's even true that even if that source is Bob Chapek plans can still change.

 

But until they change freaking out about every shadow isn't gonna do anyone any good.

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Sorry, until I see hard evidence that it will 100% be only in theaters, no matter what, I'm assuming the worst. It's best to expect the worst than set yourself up for disappointent

 

That last part is only true if you would actually be less disappointed should the scenario occur, and I don't believe that's the case for anyone emotionally invested enough to be digging for "clues" on this.

 

If it gets sent to streaming, yeah, I'll be pissed, but that's gonna be the case regardless so I'd rather just hope otherwise until the decision is made.

[Porthos]

Just now, AniNate said:

 

That last part is only true if you would actually be less disappointed should the scenario occur, and I don't believe that's the case for anyone emotionally invested enough to be digging for "clues" on this.

 

 

It's the digging for "clues" (putting scare quotes around that is absolutely right, IMO, BTW) is the most annoying part of this.

 

I get that humans naturally look for patterns in things.  It's practically hard wired into us and for data-bent nerds it's doubly tempting.  But the truth of the matter is, there sometimes isn't a pattern to be found and anything we think we find is made to fit it after the fact.  Hence my allusions to QAnon and Nostradamus.

 

For something semi-related, take the release of SW trailers.  Over in the SW leak community they were trying to suss out when promotion and trailers would start for Obi-Wan Kenobi using various things like time before release and events they dropped at.  And it is true that Disney has preferences, especially surrounding sporting events...

 

... that got promptly shot to hell today when the OWK trailer dropped during a shareholder stream.

 

Basically I am trying to point out that some of us here are perhaps putting more emphasis on things having a pattern and Meaning Something than Disney Marketing themselves (or their higher ups) are.

[EmpireCity]

You will see an outright revolt from NATO if Disney moves it to Disney+.  Theaters have been kicked in the teeth, but they aren't dead yet and they will go out on their shield to fight for their industry when it comes down to it.  They have no other choice. 

[YM!]

21 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

You will see an outright revolt from NATO if Disney moves it to Disney+.  Theaters have been kicked in the teeth, but they aren't dead yet and they will go out on their shield to fight for their industry when it comes down to it.  They have no other choice. 

Even then I don’t think Disney cares anymore and I think theaters would throw a fit but they’d come crawling back to get Avatar 2 and the MCU stuff within the first two weeks of the fit. I think theatrically Disney will only put forth the MCU, Star Wars films, an occasional remake into theaters but not any more animation. I think Chapek has made that loud and clear. Theaters need Disney more than the opposite as it stands currently.

 

I do expect it to bite them in the ass later though.

Edited March 9, 2022 by YourMother

[EmpireCity]

19 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Even then I don’t think Disney cares anymore and I think theaters would throw a fit but they’d come crawling back to get Avatar 2 and the MCU stuff within the first two weeks of the fit. I think theatrically Disney will only put forth the MCU, Star Wars films, an occasional remake into theaters but not any more animation. I think Chapek has made that loud and clear. Theaters need Disney more than the opposite as it stands currently.

 

I do expect it to bite them in the ass later though.

 

Here is the counter point to that.... Disney really only has the nuclear option.  They can't actually do it though, because their biggest and brightest talent would start walking if they abandon theaters.  

 

Theaters, despite the things you point out, can still make enough noise and get the support of the right key people that they can turn the tide on a guy like Chapek.  That essentially already happened with Marvel.  

 

Pixar was nearly ready to do it on Turning Red, but the pandemic was still the excuse.  They have ZERO excuse if Lightyear is moved from theaters.  It would make it apparent to everyone (talent/agencies/producers) what the real goal of Chapek is.  

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Here is the counter point to that.... Disney really only has the nuclear option.  They can't actually do it though, because their biggest and brightest talent would start walking if they abandon theaters.  

 

Theaters, despite the things you point out, can still make enough noise and get the support of the right key people that they can turn the tide on a guy like Chapek.  That essentially already happened with Marvel.  

 

Pixar was nearly ready to do it on Turning Red, but the pandemic was still the excuse.  They have ZERO excuse if Lightyear is moved from theaters.  It would make it apparent to everyone (talent/agencies/producers) what the real goal of Chapek is.  

While the optimist in me is hopeful that Lightyear goes theatrical and I do think that we won’t know for absolute sure until like early April as that is around two months before release, Sonic 2 also releases which should open nicely and CinemaCon as disney would make the announcement before but not after, I still doubt it. 
 

Correct me if I’m wrong as I have like no knowledge but I believe Marvel has deals that guarantee theatrical releases at least for the stars’ contracts while stuff from WDAS and Pixar do not.

 

Even for the theaters’ making noise, I doubt it’d change the tide too much unless Docter and the whole Pixar crew actually go up in arms, which again I doubt many will as for job security. Unless NATO and chains said we won’t show Marvel or Avatar movies in theaters I doubt much would really make an effort that Pixar or WDAS would stay theatrical.

[AniNate]

I really think it all comes down to if Covid remains in control and the box office keeps improving. Sonic and/or Bad Guys specifically doing well may be convincing enough too. Their coyness doesn't call for any interpretation beyond coyness. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by AniNate

[YM!]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

I really think it all comes down to if Covid remains in control and the box office keeps improving. Sonic and/or Bad Guys specifically doing well may be convincing enough too. Their coyness doesn't call for any interpretation beyond coyness. 

Sonic 2 should open at least to $50m I think. The Bad Guys probably around lower $20m but I can see $30m+ if Universal keeps up the marketing.

[lab276]

So Disney's entire theatrical slate this year is what, two movies and a couple from Fox from before the merger?

 

They were always leaner than the other studios, but that's ridiculous.

Edited March 9, 2022 by lab276

[ThomasNicole]

I don't think anything is decided, i only think they clearly aren't sure and D+ is an option at this point. 

 

Of course keep complaining won't add nothing until they decide something and announce it, but honestly i found natural to questioning.

 

Trailers aren't saying it's coming on theaters, social media as well. This week AL Disney release a very ambiguous statement about it, then today Chapek talk about this movie without mentioning the release strategy once again (and he said it's on theaters for all the other movies he talked about).

 

We're only 3 months away of the movie and Disney keep acting like they have no idea what to do, of course we're gonna speculate and worry about it, especially after the sad and undeserved treatment PIXAR is getting since the pandemic.

[Potiki]

14 minutes ago, lab276 said:

So Disney's entire theatrical slate this year is what, two movies and a couple from Fox from before the merger?

 

They were always leaner than the other studios, but that's ridiculous.

I think most of the studios have lighter slates in general. Warner has something like 8 this year they normally have around 20. Paramount around 10 or so and in 2015-2019 they were around 15.

 

Disney should also have some Searchlight releases that are not titled so should be around 10 releases theatrically not including Nat Geo which are usually handled by third party distributors for theatrical. 

[AniNate]

Well, I'd rather they be ambiguous about it than insist it's going to theaters and then pull it at the last minute if there's like some Upsilon variant surge. Especially on the heels of Turning Red's D+ release, I don't imagine it would be great PR to the family demographic they're ostensibly catering to there if they were saying their next movie was going to be a theater exclusive.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by AniNate

[DayAndDateReleasesTheBest]

31 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

especially after the sad and undeserved treatment PIXAR is getting since the pandemic.

sad and underserved WTF, Thanks to Pixar being on Disney Plus they were the MVPS and got none of the embarrasment of a poor Box Office, remember Disney Animation movies were success on Disney Plus. Encanto was a success on Disney Plus, same with Raya. Lightyear should be Day and Date, Lightyear is even Formatted for IMAX 1.43: like Dune.

[Eric Lasagna]

Just now, DayAndDateReleasesTheBest said:

sad and underserved WTF, Thanks to Pixar being on Disney Plus they were the MVPS and got none of the embarrasment of a poor Box Office, remember Disney Animation movies were success on Disney Plus. Encanto was a success on Disney Plus, same with Raya. Lightyear should be Day and Date, Lightyear is even Formatted for IMAX 1.43: like Dune.

[DayAndDateReleasesTheBest]

1 minute ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

A new someone, dont ban please...

[AniNate]

Tbh I'd be ok with day and date if that's what Disney ultimately decides. Actually offer that "flexibility" they were claiming the Turning Red move was. 

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, DayAndDateReleasesTheBest said:

sad and underserved WTF, Thanks to Pixar being on Disney Plus they were the MVPS and got none of the embarrasment of a poor Box Office, remember Disney Animation movies were success on Disney Plus. Encanto was a success on Disney Plus, same with Raya. Lightyear should be Day and Date, Lightyear is even Formatted for IMAX 1.43: like Dune.

Yes, it's undeserved. 

 

Both Raya and Encanto smash on D+ but both have their shot at theaters, Pixar doesn't have the same treatment and it is unfair, this isn't up to debate. 

 

I know Pixar movies was huge on D+, all of them are some of the biggest movies ever on streaming, everyone knows that. But this is not an argument for releasing 4 movies straight to D+ without any other option, especially when Disney only do that with Pixar because it adds value for the shitty D+ catalogue.