Weekend Thread (4/30-5/2) - MK 1.85 Friday (80% drop!)

[filmlover]

One has to imagine WB will push Godzilla vs Kong past $100M with all their might if it gets close enough to the mark. Helps that they have a few movies coming out over the next several weeks (Those Who Wish Me Dead, The Conjuring, In the Heights) that they can pair it up with as a double feature.

[druv10]

Just now, titanic2187 said:

I like how both MK+DS overperform last week only to underperform altogether in their 2nd week 

It just shows pitfall of the boxoffice. For DS, it has niche audience while MK has awful WOM. 

However, Godzilla has shown us, right movie can still be big and by end of the year boxoffice should be somewhat close to normal. 

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, druv10 said:

It just shows pitfall of the boxoffice. For DS, it has niche audience while MK has awful WOM. 

However, Godzilla has shown us, right movie can still be big and by end of the year boxoffice should be somewhat close to normal. 

AQP2 will be a fun thing to watch. The marketing and red carpet last year all went down in drain, but those marketing can't have zero impact right? Hope the final push last year did serve some awareness building for upcoming major debut

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I like how both MK+DS overperform last week only to underperform altogether in their 2nd week 

DS 2nd weekend is far from underperformance. Just that Hollywood portals didn't knew what to expect of it. $5.5-6M was a very good target, it did $6.4M. Excellent stuff.

[Legion Again]

Yeah this hold for DS is 37% of pure FSS. I hoped for a bit more but this is right in the realistic range, even a bit on the high end. Even in markets where it’s had good-great legs, 2nd weekend has sometimes been harsh/normal.   
 

MK just 27% of its FSS , that’s a true plummet though. 

[poweranimals]

On 5/1/2021 at 11:17 AM, Maggie said:

It's the fact that it's on streaming...that's why the harsh drop. I expect Black Widow to act the same. My UNDER 150M club for BW is looking good

 

EDIT. That and coupled with the fact that, as @Krissykins said, both movies are fan driven

But you have to pay $30 to stream Black Widow so I would think at that point people would rather just go to the theater.

[Borobudur]

Mortal Kombat's opening without preview still somehow drop harsher than DS' inflated opening. I guess the already borderline sequel plan is in danger.  

[charlie Jatinder]

Not having previews does make FSS drops harder. Reason is simple that the preview business is shifted to FSS. Can look the drops as if they are coming with previews in normalcy. Drop is not at all bad IMO. perfectly ok trending.

[Krissykins]

17 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

DS 2nd weekend is far from underperformance. Just that Hollywood portals didn't knew what to expect of it. $5.5-6M was a very good target, it did $6.4M. Excellent stuff.

A 71% drop is never excellent.

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not having previews does make FSS drops harder. Reason is simple that the preview business is shifted to FSS. Can look the drops as if they are coming with previews in normalcy. Drop is not at all bad IMO. perfectly ok trending.

That’s just what they have to accept though, if they want to roll Thursday numbers into their “weekend” opening. 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

A 71% drop is never excellent.

It can start doing negative gross from today and reach $20M and that will still be excellent number for non-COVID time release. Not every film released in USA need to follow the norms of Hollywood box office. $6M 2nd weekend is EXCELLENT for a foreign movie, even more for an anime movie.

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That’s just what they have to accept though, if they want to roll Thursday numbers into their “weekend” opening. 

I think you missed the context. 

[Krissykins]

35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It can start doing negative gross from today and reach $20M and that will still be excellent number for non-COVID time release. Not every film released in USA need to follow the norms of Hollywood box office. $6M 2nd weekend is EXCELLENT for a foreign movie, even more for an anime movie.

I think you missed the context. 

I think you missed the context of my original post. I said a 70% 2nd weekend drop is never excellent. I wasn’t talking about the total gross, the weekend gross or the pandemic. 
 

-70% second weekend drop is never good, pandemic or not. 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think you missed the context of my original post. I said a 70% 2nd weekend drop is never excellent. I wasn’t talking about the total gross, the weekend gross or the pandemic. 
 

-70% second weekend drop is never good, pandemic or not. 

But it is. For a highly fans limited anime film, it definitely is. Not just anime, all foreign films have this frontloading. There is a limited audience niche to consume and they do it quite fast.

 

Baahubali 2 has 69% drop in 2nd weekend and that was considered an excellent number back here.

[Borobudur]

10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not having previews does make FSS drops harder. Reason is simple that the preview business is shifted to FSS. Can look the drops as if they are coming with previews in normalcy. Drop is not at all bad IMO. perfectly ok trending.

This doesn't matter if they rolled their Thursday number into Friday.

 

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

But it is. For a highly fans limited anime film, it definitely is. Not just anime, all foreign films have this frontloading. There is a limited audience niche to consume and they do it quite fast.

 

Baahubali 2 has 69% drop in 2nd weekend and that was considered an excellent number back here.

71%-72% is bad. The reason you mentioned are all reasons why the movie have such a bad drop, not the excuse of why the film is actually doing good. Have a reason to justify  a bad thing doesn't make a bad thing become good. They are just simply explaining the bad.   

[frog]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

This doesn't matter if they rolled their Thursday number into Friday.

 

71%-72% is bad. The reason you mentioned are all reasons why the movie have such a bad drop, not the excuse of why the film is actually doing good. Have a reason to justify  a bad thing doesn't make a bad thing become good. They are just simply explaining the bad.   

 Why drop 70% is a bad thing? It still contribute top 1 box office during the weekend. Compared to other anime films it's good. Compared to hollywood films is bad. There is no absolute good or bad, just data.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

This doesn't matter if they rolled their Thursday number into Friday.

my response was intended to say that it really doesn't matter they had previews or not because the previews business is moved to FSS. Besides MK was already expected to be frontloaded coupled with HBO Max release. Still think MK has done good enough.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

71%-72% is bad. The reason you mentioned are all reasons why the movie have such a bad drop, not the excuse of why the film is actually doing good. Have a reason to justify  a bad thing doesn't make a bad thing become good. They are just simply explaining the bad.   

frankly speaking drops and blah blah doesnt matter. the bigger you open, the bigger you are likely to drop, more so for a niche film like DS is.

 

70% would be a bad drop for Hollywood film in normalcy but for foreign niche movie it isn't. plain and simple.

 

Not just USA. Every where, whereever DS is niche film. DS dropped 66% in Spain as well. 70% in Australia. Its not Japan or Korea or Taiwan where property will get general audience or fanbase is big enough to be sustain. 

 

I will rest my case with

 

"It's not movie's fault if you don't know what to expect".

Edited May 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Borobudur]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

frankly speaking drops and blah blah doesnt matter. the bigger you open, the bigger you are likely to drop, more so for a niche film like DS is.

 

70% would be a bad drop for Hollywood film in normalcy but for foreign niche movie it isn't. plain and simple.

 

Not just USA. Every where, whereever DS is niche film. DS dropped 66% in Spain as well. 70% in Australia. Its not Japan or Korea or Taiwan where property will get general audience or fanbase is big enough to be sustain. 

 

I will rest my case with

 

"It's not movie's fault if you don't know what to expect".

The thought process should be DS drop hard because of its niche nature. Not the other way as in given its niche nature, the hold is actually good. Just like HBO Max, it is HBO Max that cause the weaker legs, not because of hbo max, we should then deduce that all WB films' leg are quite decent.

 

DS' 2nd week drop is bad, but that doesn't discount that fact that the movie have been doing great and way above people expectation. I don't see problem of saying that in the same sentence.  

[charlie Jatinder]

[Legion Again]

This argument is so dumb. There’s no substantive disagreement at its core, just differing linguistic preferences. 
 

BOT really is healing. 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

But it is. For a highly fans limited anime film, it definitely is. Not just anime, all foreign films have this frontloading. There is a limited audience niche to consume and they do it quite fast.

 

Baahubali 2 has 69% drop in 2nd weekend and that was considered an excellent number back here.

Frontloading is frontloading. 
 

What you’re describing is fanboy rush. It’s been happening for years.