Juby Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 (edited) On 2/21/2022 at 9:31 AM, Shanks said: Oh, Corrected. Still wrong Edited February 22, 2022 by Juby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 (edited) Anyways, they're kinda bad at predicting. They got close with Shang-Chi but everything else was way off, Edited February 21, 2022 by poweranimals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wintersoldier2021 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 So they think strange DOMESTIC TOTAL will be less than 230million are they high? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lothar Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 8 hours ago, Juby said: Bruce Nash's (the-numebrs.com) predictions for 2022: https://www.the-numbers.com/beta/news/251050830-2022-market-prediction-our-first-analysis-of-2022-points-to-6-8-billion-year-at-the-box-office https://www.the-numbers.com/beta/news/251260830-2022-market-prediction-studio-shifts-pull-expected-box-office-down-200-million-from-last-month 🤔 A2 opening day or weekend? I don't get it. someone on the desk needs to reduce drinking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruiseCruise Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 How the hell do you predict BP2 will only do 230m total domestically when the first one exceeded that amount in 4 days 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, Juby said: Still wrong: Hello, Mr. Juby, I took data from same Mojo/Number site, so you don't need to remind me what I can see. But For Context, we are talking about 2021 BOX OFFICE - as per site named "THE NUMBERS" whose address is "https://www.the-numbers.com/" This is site where we can see Box office data, if you don't know. I am sorry that you feel I am wrong but maybe you have never seen how yearly data is given but It doesn't abruptly ends on 31st but it's either whole weekend or Whole Weekdays depending on what 31st is falling on. What numbers you are quoting is what NWH earned TILL 31st, 2021 but Even though our YEAR ends on 31st which was Fri, OUR BOX Office year doesn't sadly. It ends on 2nd Jan (Sun). This Site called "The Numbers" considers Spiderman to have earned 613M in year 2021. Peace, From same guy who copied all data from same site called "The numbers" and had eyes to see 31st was $573m but still wrote $613m. Edited February 21, 2022 by Shanks 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarintino Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I think Thor will be Marvels biggest movie this year. He had the biggest boost in popularity during the Infinity Saga and Ragnarok was one of the most well recieved sequels of the MCU. It seems likely that we will have Star Lord and friends in it too so I think people are sleeping on this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liiviig 1998 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, Tarintino said: I think Thor will be Marvels biggest movie this year. He had the biggest boost in popularity during the Infinity Saga and Ragnarok was one of the most well recieved sequels of the MCU. It seems likely that we will have Star Lord and friends in it too so I think people are sleeping on this one. Think people are over predicting this way too much. It's gonna increase to around CM to aquaman numbers. 155-165m OW 425 -450m Dom 700m OS. Do people really think this is toping BP2?? Multiverse of madness is a wild card. thor 4 could be the lowest or the second. gotg and Thor franchises were never that big OS and I know popularity has increased . Still see all the MCU movies making 700-750m. Maybe DS2 can go 800m+. BP has the advantage on the domestic side. BP - 1.4B DS - 1.3 - 1.35B TH4 - 1.15B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) I am very curious about OS numbers and I do worry things are being over-predicted a bit. I think NWH has skewed peoples mindset. NWH is not the new norm. FWIW, Spider-Man FFH “only” did $542M OS-C in 2019. Captain Marvel did $548M. Ragnarok did $427M in 2017. I have to continue to assume that Marvel won’t get released in China this year because I have nothing else to go on. As of right now, I’m thinking something in the range of FFH/CM OS-C +30-50% for Love & Thunder. Edited February 22, 2022 by PenguinXXR 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, PenguinXXR said: I am very curious about OS numbers and I do worry things are being over-predicted a bit. I think NWH has skewed peoples mindset. NWH is not the new norm. FWIW, Spider-Man FFH “only” did $542M OS-C in 2019. Captain Marvel did $548M. Ragnarok did $427M in 2017. I have to continue to assume that Marvel won’t get released in China this year because I have nothing else to go on. As of right now, I’m thinking something in the range of FFH/CM OS-C +30-50% for Love & Thunder. still don't see L&T's path to a billion Ragnarok only did a bit over 300 domestic, if its getting to a billion it needs to grow 35% both domestic and os-c to get to a billion And it has to do with against Minions 2, lightyear, JWD, Bullet Train, Nope and Black Adam I see it stopping at the mid 900s at most 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 34 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: still don't see L&T's path to a billion Ragnarok only did a bit over 300 domestic, if its getting to a billion it needs to grow 35% both domestic and os-c to get to a billion And it has to do with against Minions 2, lightyear, JWD, Bullet Train, Nope and Black Adam I see it stopping at the mid 900s at most A 35% increase isn’t much of an ask, to be honest. Thor’s profile increased quite a bit in Infinity War and Endgame which are both post Ragnarok. Not to mention it’s easy to carry big numbers in the summer than any other time, sans Christmas holidays. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruiseCruise Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Where do you guys see Black Adam coming in at? August doesn't look too bad in terms of competition and The Rock has clear starpower, i'm guessing 500m ww 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 hours ago, BruiseCruise said: Where do you guys see Black Adam coming in at? August doesn't look too bad in terms of competition and The Rock has clear starpower, i'm guessing 500m ww Bigger than The Batman!!! 😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Black Adam is a huge question mark. Rock's recent trajectory (domestic) July 2021: Jungle Cruise- 116m (Disney+) Dec 2019: Jumanji: Next Level- 316m Aug 2019: Hobbs and Shaw- 173m July 2018: Skyscraper- 68m April 2018: 101m Dec 2017: Jumanji: 404m May 2017: Baywatch- 58m June 2016: Central Intelligence- 127m May 2015: San Andreas- 155m July 2014: Hercules- 72m Compare this to Shazam (the most comparable DC project, obviously) which did 140m. You can argue Jungle Cruise would have hit 140m but Rock hasn't hit that outside of Fast and Furious/Jumanji since San Andreas. 140-150m is higher than Birds of Prey (84m), The Suicide Squad (55m, HBO Max). I don't think it should be expected to perform alongside the likes of Batman, Superman, or even Wonder Woman and Aquaman. Suicide Squad (2016) had an incredible marketing campaign, so much more going for it with Will Smith, a new Joker, the first Harley Quinn appearance, etc. I don't think you can expect a DC film to perform like a MCU solo film (Shang-Chi doing 220m) but Eternals did 164m and Ant-Man did 180m (sequel post Endgame did 216m). So 150m is a fair prediction IMO. August is completely dire, so it can take advantage with strong legs and approach the 160m range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 17 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said: BP has the advantage on the domestic side. BP - 1.4B DS - 1.3 - 1.35B TH4 - 1.15B There's no chance BP2 will increase over the first one. Domestically it will drop as every sequel to a smashing superhero hit (Superman II, Batman Returns, Spider-Man 2, Age of Ultron, Deadpool 2) as well as overseas. The first Black Panther OS-C was "only" $542m. It was #1 movie of the year only in U.S. and some African markets. Everywhere else people wanted to see it mostly because it was the last MCU movie before Infinity War and it wasn't availble on streaming/DVD/Blu-ray/UHD befere Avengers realease. I'm still not sure if BP2 will join the billion-dollar-club ww. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liiviig 1998 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, Juby said: There's no chance BP2 will increase over the first one. Domestically it will drop as every sequel to a smashing superhero hit (Superman II, Batman Returns, Spider-Man 2, Age of Ultron, Deadpool 2) as well as overseas. The first Black Panther OS-C was "only" $542m. It was #1 movie of the year only in U.S. and some African markets. Everywhere else people wanted to see it mostly because it was the last MCU movie before Infinity War and it wasn't availble on streaming/DVD/Blu-ray/UHD befere Avengers realease. I'm still not sure if BP2 will join the billion-dollar-club ww. Thor Ragnarok had around OS - C around425m . BP doesn't need to increase Dom . In my prediction had it at 650m Dom . Ragnarok Will be lucky to make 500 Dom and I still think BP will edge it out OS too. Previous predictions had China. BP - 1.2- 1.27B WW -C(625-650m Dom, 600-625m OS-C) DS - 1B - 1.2B WW-C(500-600m Dom, 500-600m OS-C) I personally think DS 2could be the biggest surprise. Thor - 950m+ - 1B WW-C(425-450m Dom, 550m OS-C) Edited February 23, 2022 by Liiviig 1998 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Your predictions are still way too optimistic for me. BP2 won't increase overseas. OS-C over $540m for BP:WF will be a huge surprise, especially against so strong competition: The Flash, Aquaman and the Lost City and "Avatar 2". Domestic will also drop significantly. First BP was the first major blockbuster of 2018 and the last MCU-film before highly-anticipated Infinity War, BP2 will be 8th(!) superhero film of 2022 and one of the 3 big films with underwater action (if it is really Namor debut ?). Don't be shocked if BP2 finish under $450m domestic. 1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said: Ragnarok Will be lucky to make 500 Dom Thor: Ragnarok did $315m domestic. :P The sequel of the best recieved Thor film + one of the direct sequels to Endgame + Thor and Guardians team-up = Love & Thunder definitely have potential for +$400m domestic, but even this isn't locked. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Squibbonator Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Has there been any speculation in this thread regarding Bob's Burgers: The Movie? Its marketing has been surprisingly low-key for a film adaptation of a popular TV show, so I'm not sure what to make of it. I'm picturing an opening weekend of $10-15 million, with a domestic gross of somewhere in the $50 million territory if Jurassic World: Dominion doesn't do too much damage to it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 With the ecnomic news from Russia today, Russian BOx Office is going to be down,down,down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...