⊃∪∩⪽ Part II | March 1, 2024 | Reactions drop February 15, reviews February 21 | Zendaya for our next C-3P0

[emoviefan]

Just watched the skit. LOL. 100 million OW confirmed.

[ando]

That skit is some solid free marketing. Nice. 

[SaltyPistola]

No Doritos tie-in 🥶Movie is looking like a flop. 

[JWR]

Not that I ever truly doubted, but I'm slowly getting sucked into the hype on this one.

 

- The goodwill from the first movie (in its initial release and streaming)

- No HBO Max or piracy this time

- The increased star power of Timothee Chalamet (and Zendaya)

- The fact that February is a barren desert for new releases

[TwoMisfits]

53 minutes ago, JWR said:

Not that I ever truly doubted, but I'm slowly getting sucked into the hype on this one.

 

- The goodwill from the first movie (in its initial release and streaming)

- No HBO Max or piracy this time

- The increased star power of Timothee Chalamet (and Zendaya)

- The fact that February is a barren desert for new releases

 

I was trying to decide if just saying $102M DOM OW would make me a nut...decided it might:)...

 

In hype factors, you also forget the build toward Dune in Feb - there is now both the rerelease of the original and the rerelease of the remake hitting theaters in Feb, both being hyped before this hits...

 

It's gonna be a boulder rolling downhill and picking up steam - it's the movie event to start 2024.

 

If I hadn't blown Color Purple so badly (another movie, like Dune 2, out of my wheelhouse), I'd be WAY more confident.  But I am at least confident enough that everyone is thinking too low ($50 OW as even in the possible range - nah) to let Shawn know to come on board and start thinking higher than he is...

[JWR]

21 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I was trying to decide if just saying $102M DOM OW would make me a nut...decided it might:)...

 

In hype factors, you also forget the build toward Dune in Feb - there is now both the rerelease of the original and the rerelease of the remake hitting theaters in Feb, both being hyped before this hits...

 

It's gonna be a boulder rolling downhill and picking up steam - it's the movie event to start 2024.

 

If I hadn't blown Color Purple so badly (another movie, like Dune 2, out of my wheelhouse), I'd be WAY more confident.  But I am at least confident enough that everyone is thinking too low ($50 OW as even in the possible range - nah) to let Shawn know to come on board and start thinking higher than he is...

 

That, too. People who maybe missed out on the initial hype now have the chance to discover it. The first movie is going to be fresh on their minds, which will help going into the coming weeks.

 

I think anywhere between $55-100M OW is possible here.

Edited February 5 by JWR

[Valonqar]

Viral skit. Nolan compares it to ESB. Yep, 100M+ OW is happening. 

[Warmaster506]

100+ is happening.  I just need to get one of the popcorn buckets

[Last Man Standing]

This may be the best solution.

[Valonqar]

Worked really well for American Sniper and Breaking Dawn:

 

 

 

[Last Man Standing]

 

[M37]

4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Viral skit. Nolan compares it to ESB. Yep, 100M+ OW is happening. 

$67-$71M 🤷‍♂️

[WittyUsername]

I’ve been saying that the only real way to handle Alia would be to make her CGI. The character is supposed to be creepy and off-putting anyway, so it should work. 

[TwoMisfits]

35 minutes ago, M37 said:

$67-$71M 🤷‍♂️

 

You're too low.  Sometimes, tracking is gonna be on point.  I don't think this is one of those times:).

 

 

[ando]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

$67-$71M 🤷‍♂️

This seems about right. Maybe it can inch up a bit higher after good reviews and more marketing/Superbowl. But I would be very happy with that opening. 

[Eric Prime]

28 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You're too low.  Sometimes, tracking is gonna be on point.  I don't think this is one of those times:).

 

 

Nah. I trust M37 with my life and I can't be disappointed. Not for my baby.

[Valonqar]

56 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I’ve been saying that the only real way to handle Alia would be to make her CGI. The character is supposed to be creepy and off-putting anyway, so it should work. 

 

She's only creepy because she's an adult mind in a child's body but otherwise she was very sad that everyone was scared of her. Most tragic character in Atreides saga later on (Children of Dune). 😢

Edited February 5 by Valonqar

[WittyUsername]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

She's only creepy because she's an adult mind in a child's body but otherwise she was very sad that everyone was scared of her. Most tragic character in Atreides saga later on (Children of Dune). 😢

Isn’t she 2-4 years old in the first book? A literal toddler who talks and behaves like a grown adult would definitely approach uncanny valley territory, so they might as well embrace the weirdness of it. 

[ThomasNicole]

Based on data so far, yeah, 70M is the likely number for OW

 

It doesn’t really have that much competition, it’s more action heavy than the first movie and should get great reception all around, so i think it can get 200M DOM with this opening.

Edited February 5 by ThomasNicole

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

70M has been what I’ve been expecting for a while.