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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC2 did not do as much as I thought but still it is quite good. 

 

The Batman MTC2

Tue - 3618/4151 57356.50 14 shows

Wed - 28665/38877 419606.00 183 shows

Thu - 94785/622447 1258135.15 4468 shows

Fri - 97331/759620 1219091.79 4953 shows // run started around 3PM PST and took close to 3 hours. 

 

I think I am expecting another big bump tomorrow. Many shows were added and they take time to fill out. Another 32K between tue/wednesday shows as well. MTC2 still has to pace up to catch up to a good ratio relative to Alpha. 

 

Edit: Added Tue/Wed BO. 

Hmm Thursday pace is good but still a bit under what I was hoping with MTC2 still needing to catch up quite a bit. Will see how it goes tomorrow. But extrapolating from that 13.4k pace I get perhaps 160k for Thursday alone added until the end of the run, for 250kish final. Using what I had extrapolated earlier that would be maybe 17.5 million for purely Thursday so 21.5-22 overall. Hopefully it gets more good bumps today to increase on that.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Hmm Thursday pace is good but still a bit under what I was hoping with MTC2 still needing to catch up quite a bit. Will see how it goes tomorrow. But extrapolating from that 13.4k pace I get perhaps 160k for Thursday alone added until the end of the run, for 250kish final. Using what I had extrapolated earlier that would be maybe 17.5 million for purely Thursday so 21.5-22 overall. Hopefully it gets more good bumps today to increase on that.

I think MTC1 will be the bigger factor. As long as that overperforms the movie should do ok. Plus MTC2 is backloaded. I reran friday at night and it finished close to 106K. phenomenal day for friday PS. I also think this will have great walkups as release is very wide and you have availability during peak hours as well. Let us see how rest of the week goes. 

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted

The Batman  

Toronto Ontario Greater Toronto Area

Thurs March 3 Taken March 1

Theatres 13

Shows 147

 

Total Sold 5766

Total Remaining 31660

Total seats 37426

Percentage 15.4

 

Okay bit of change in numbers-Today March 1 all Mandates except masks dropped in Ontario, theatre at full capacity now-so sales numbersbefore were taken while theatres were at 50 percent capacity, so a bump up in total seats and obviously seats remaining, but the sales kept up around 15 percent so they kept up with those openings.

 

I will do a count tomorrow for Friday (because thats when Cineplex opens up its Friday seating more). Unfortunately Wed will be only day I can do Friday counts as from Thurs to Mon I will be away from my computer, so I won't have counts on Thurs or Fri for Friday numbers. This will probably also be my final count for Thurs numbers as well. 

 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area Theaters Shows Total Seats Total Sold New Sales % Sold
T-1 Batman (Tue) Jacksonville 2 2 841 472 3 56.12%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 404 0 98.54%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 146 0 96.69%
  Batman (Tue) Total   4 4 1,402 1,022 3 72.90%
T-17 Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Jacksonville 6 18 2,151 135 14 6.28%
    Phoenix 6 11 1,313 171 22 13.02%
    Raleigh 5 7 792 126 11 15.91%
  Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total   17 36 4,256 432 47 10.15%
T-2 Batman (Wed) Jacksonville 5 8 1,166 705 37 60.46%
    Phoenix 2 2 318 262 6 82.39%
  Batman (Wed) Total   7 10 1,484 967 43 65.16%
T-3 Batman Jacksonville 7 126 20,501 1,384 141 6.75%
    Phoenix 7 115 18,183 2,225 205 12.24%
    Raleigh 28 101 11,404 1,722 166 15.10%
  Batman Total   42 342 50,088 5,331 512 10.64%

 

Batman T-3 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .223x (11.13m)

Black Widow - 1.489x (19.65m)

Eternals - 2.01x (19.05m)

 

Increased against all three comps today.

Day Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
T-0 Batman (Tue) Jacksonville 2 2 841 519 47 61.71%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 408 4 99.51%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 146 0 96.69%
  Batman (Tue) Total   4 4 1,402 1,073 51 76.53%
T-1 Batman (Wed) Jacksonville 5 8 1,166 802 97 68.78%
    Phoenix 2 2 318 272 10 85.53%
  Batman (Wed) Total   7 10 1,484 1,074 107 72.37%
T-16 Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Jacksonville 6 18 2,151 158 23 7.35%
    Phoenix 6 11 1,313 188 17 14.32%
    Raleigh 5 7 792 129 3 16.29%
  Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total   17 36 4,256 475 43 11.16%
T-2 Batman Jacksonville 7 126 20,501 1,616 232 7.88%
    Phoenix 7 125 19,034 2,655 430 13.95%
    Raleigh 28 104 11,614 2,002 280 17.24%
  Batman Total   42 355 51,149 6,273 942 12.26%

 

Batman T-2 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .245x (12.25m)

Black Widow - 1.535x (20.27m)

Eternals - 2.08x (19.75m)

Shang-Chi - 2.99x (26.35m)

 

First time adding shows that I can remember.   I'm getting more confident in a 20m true Thursday the closer we get to release.  Added the SC comp today as it's getting closer to a realistic number.  First couple of days it was pointing to 40m+ and has been creeping down.  Suicide Squad comp is still lingering around 35m so that's not really in the same realm.

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Dragoncaine Sleeper Hit

Dragoncaine

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day Movie Area TC Shows Seats Sold New % Sold
T-0 Batman (Tue) Jacksonville 2 2 841 519 47 61.71%
    Phoenix 1 1 410 408 4 99.51%
    Raleigh 1 1 151 146 0 96.69%
  Batman (Tue) Total   4 4 1,402 1,073 51 76.53%
T-1 Batman (Wed) Jacksonville 5 8 1,166 802 97 68.78%
    Phoenix 2 2 318 272 10 85.53%
  Batman (Wed) Total   7 10 1,484 1,074 107 72.37%
T-16 Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Jacksonville 6 18 2,151 158 23 7.35%
    Phoenix 6 11 1,313 188 17 14.32%
    Raleigh 5 7 792 129 3 16.29%
  Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total   17 36 4,256 475 43 11.16%
T-2 Batman Jacksonville 7 126 20,501 1,616 232 7.88%
    Phoenix 7 125 19,034 2,655 430 13.95%
    Raleigh 28 104 11,614 2,002 280 17.24%
  Batman Total   42 355 51,149 6,273 942 12.26%

 

Batman T-2 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .245x (12.25m)

Black Widow - 1.535x (20.27m)

Eternals - 2.08x (19.75m)

Shang-Chi - 2.99x (26.35m)

 

First time adding shows that I can remember.   I'm getting more confident in a 20m true Thursday the closer we get to release.  Added the SC comp today as it's getting closer to a realistic number.  First couple of days it was pointing to 40m+ and has been creeping down.  Suicide Squad comp is still lingering around 35m so that's not really in the same realm.

$20m true Thursday sounds very promising. Any extrapolation for Tues-Wed previews?

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Format Breakdown

 

Day Movie Format Shows New* Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Batman (Tue) PLF 1 0 441 446 98.88% $17.05 $7,519.05
  Batman (Tue) Total   1 0 441 446 98.88% $17.05 $7,519.05
T-3 Batman (Thu) PLF 25 394 2,302 5,928 38.83% $14.96 $34,427.27
    Standard 68 789 2,316 9,687 23.91% $11.69 $27,068.90
  Batman (Thu) Total   93 1,183 4,618 15,615 29.57% $13.32 $61,496.17
T-4 Batman (Fri) PLF 43 793 2,480 10,229 24.24% $15.14 $37,549.44
    Standard 101 958 2,167 15,100 14.35% $11.67 $25,288.90
  Batman (Fri) Total   144 1,751 4,647 25,329 18.35% $13.52 $62,838.34

 

Matinee Breakdown

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New* Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Batman (Tue) N 1 0 441 446 98.88% $17.05 $7,519.05
  Batman (Tue) Total   1 0 441 446 98.88% $17.05 $7,519.05
T-3 Batman (Thu) N 70 996 3,995 11,520 34.68% $13.76 $54,961.22
    Y 23 187 623 4,095 15.21% $10.49 $6,534.95
  Batman (Thu) Total   93 1,183 4,618 15,615 29.57% $13.32 $61,496.17
T-4 Batman (Fri) N 71 1,480 4,093 12,980 31.53% $13.95 $57,093.23
    Y 73 271 554 12,349 4.49% $10.37 $5,745.11
  Batman (Fri) Total   144 1,751 4,647 25,329 18.35% $13.52

$62,838.34

 

**New sales are since Thursday morning (2/24)

 

Spider-Man T-3 - 17,123/22,311 (76.75% sold)

Spider-Man Fri T-4 - 14,253/26,157 (54.49% sold)

 

Spider-Man comps

Thursday - .27x (13.485m)

Friday - .326x (23.46m)

 

Friday really picking up compared to Spider-Man.  

 

***Note: Spider-Man is the only other movie I've tracked in Santikos; these are not predictions.***

Santikos Tracking

 

Format Breakdown

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sls Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Batman (Tue) PLF 1 5 446 446 100% $17.05 $7,604.30
  Batman (Tue) Total   1 5 446 446 100% $17.05 $7,604.30
T-2 Batman (Thu) PLF 25 143 2,445 5,928 41.24% $14.90 $36,434.74
    Standard 90 389 2,705 13,266 20.39% $11.62 $31,437.84
  Batman (Thu) Total   115 532 5,150 19,194 26.83% $13.18 $67,872.58
T-3 Batman (Fri) PLF 43 336 2,816 10,229 27.53% $15.05 $42,388.50
    Standard 115 387 2,554 16,954 15.06% $11.59 $29,594.28
  Batman (Fri) Total   158 723 5,370 27,183 19.75% $13.40 $71,982.78

 

Matinee Breakdown

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sls Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Batman (Tue) N 1 5 446 446 100% $17.05 $7,604.30
  Batman (Tue) Total   1 5 446 446 100% $17.05 $7,604.30
T-2 Batman (Thu) N 87 429 4,424 14,134 31.30% $13.62 $60,268.35
    Y 28 103 726 5,060 14.35% $10.47 $7,604.23
  Batman (Thu) Total   115 532 5,150 19,194 26.83% $13.18 $67,872.58
T-3 Batman (Fri) N 79 546 4,639 14,005 33.12% $13.88 $64,399.81
    Y 79 177 731 13,178 5.55% $10.37 $7,582.97
  Batman (Fri) Total   158 723 5,370 27,183 19.75% $13.40 $71,982.78

 

Spider-Man T-2 - 17,905/23,801 (75.23% sold)

Spider-Man Fri T-3 - 15,307/28,929 (52.91% sold)

 

Spider-Man comps

Thursday - .29x (14.38m)

Friday - .351x (25.25m)

 

***Note: Spider-Man is the only other movie I've tracked in Santikos; these are not predictions.***

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, excel1 said:

$35m+ incoming from midnights  

I genuinely think this belongs in the Batman thread, because it certainly is not based on any buzz or tracking data. This isn’t the “box office gut feeling/dreams” thread.

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I genuinely think this belongs in the Batman thread, because it certainly is not based on any buzz or tracking data. This isn’t the “box office gut feeling/dreams” thread.

 

It is 100% based on buzz. 

 

What type of buzz is a different question. 

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XXR & Friends Global Phenomenon

XXR & Friends

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

Saw Lost City tickets are on sale and 1 Dolby theater near me has a Thursday 645pm already more than half full, whoa


That seems surprising. What theater? I checked my 24 screener and between the Wednesday show and 5 on Thursday it has only sold 4 tickets total.

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AdrianL Sleeper Hit

AdrianL

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:


That seems surprising. What theater? I checked my 24 screener and between the Wednesday show and 5 on Thursday it has only sold 4 tickets total.

AMC Mission Valley. This theater always sells well in premium but surprised this has sold relatively well in less than a day, although looking again it may be a little less than half full lol

Edited by AdrianL
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 2/15/2022 at 12:09 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:
Chain Theaters Sold Capacity % Sold Sales
AMC 179 45,307 56,374 80.37% $1,068,345.28
Century 2 474 531 89.27% $8,058.22
Cinemark 11 2,650 3,323 79.75% $41,964.53
CMX 1 203 265 76.60% $3,690.54
Harkins 1 398 445 89.44% $6,368.00
Malco 3 617 835 73.89% $10,768.96
Marcus 2 476 589 80.81% $7,506.76
Megaplex 5 2,270 2,738 82.91% $32,756.10
Other 13 3,017 4,058 74.35% $56,104.20
Premiere 2 334 448 74.55% $4,515.78
Regal 91 20,346 27,816 73.14% $406,723.19
Santikos 1 441 449 98.22% $7,519.05
Grand Total 311 76,533 97,871 78.20% $1,654,320.61

 

  IMAX 3/1 release update.  One theater removed the showing and another one is temporarily closed.  I did find a couple that I missed before though. 

 

Chain Theaters Sold Capacity % Sold Sales
AMC 184 50,026 57,693 86.71% $1,180,438.41
Century 2 494 531 93.03% $8,399.52
Cinemark 11 2,918 3,323 87.81% $46,267.35
CMX 2 529 577 91.68% $10,270.18
Harkins 1 429 445 96.40% $6,864.00
Malco 3 704 835 84.31% $12,273.80
Marcus 2 518 589 87.95% $8,129.00
Megaplex 5 2,467 2,738 90.10% $35,598.81
Other 20 4,909 6,371 77.05% $87,135.74
Premiere 2 391 448 87.28% $5,289.21
Regal 91 22,933 27,816 82.45% $456,971.11
Santikos 1 446 449 99.33% $7,604.30
Grand Total 324 86,764 101,815 85.22% $1,865,241.43

 

Added a few more theaters that have reserved seating.  The real count looks to be a little over 350 for tonight.  Sales are assuming all tickets are full price adult tickets.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

Atom's discount ticket deal will be for 3/1 showings only.  So don't expect much of a boost to Batsy tickets at Cinemark given how few IMAX theaters they have.

Edited by Porthos
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