The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Joyous Legion]

8 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Sub-20m true Thursday incoming?

Mate this has been incoming forever.

[XXR & Friends]

True Friday Tracking -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens)

March 4, 2022 Nationwide Openers - Counted Thursday @ 3PM CST 

 

 

The Batman 

425 show times -- 18193 total seats sold -- 11921 PLF seats sold -- 6272 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 65.5% PLF -- 34.5% Regular 

 

Comps: N/A

 

True Friday Estimate: $35-39M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $125-140M

 

Spoiler

Comments 

Since this is new tracking for me, I don't have any comps yet. I will be doing this every Thursday for true Friday, for every film no matter the size. In the future, I'll be able to provide more data like multipliers and audience scores to help extrapolate the weekend. 

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked / Breakdowns

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
26 show times -- 874 PLF sold -- 1024 Regular sold 

AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
46 show times -- 1782 PLF sold -- 857 Regular sold 

AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX)
51 show times -- 624 PLF sold -- 497 Regular sold 

AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
24 show times -- 549 PLF sold -- 271 Regular sold 

AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
28 show times -- 553 PLF sold -- 306 Regular sold 

AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)

26 show times -- 1126 PLF sold -- 667 Regular sold 

AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
27 show times -- 1234 PLF sold -- 287 Regular sold 

AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)

21 show times -- 423 PLF sold -- 126 Regular sold 

AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)

19 show times -- 682 PLF sold -- 283 Regular sold 

AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
25 show times -- 1346 PLF sold -- 781 Regular sold 

AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
31 show times -- 709 PLF sold -- 430 Regular sold 

AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
37 show times -- 624 PLF sold -- 120 Regular sold 

AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)

31 show times -- 560 PLF sold -- 321 Regular sold 

AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
21 show times -- 249 PLF sold -- 183 Regular sold 

AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

31 show times -- 586 PLF sold -- 119 Regular sold 
 

 

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by PenguinXXR

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1004

3406

29.48%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

695

3552

19.57%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4616	618	30824	14.98%	14	208

 

AMCs sold	2833
Cinemarks sold	474
Regals sold	799
Harkins sold	510

 

Tuesday:

Total

1189

1428

Wednesday:

Total

1202

138

1271

Overall:

Grand Total

7007

756

33523

 

0.364x NWH T-1 (18.20M)

2.45x Eternals T-1 (23.28M)

3.12x NTTD T-1 (19.44M)
1.72x Black Widow T-1 (22.70M)

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1173

3406

34.44%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

876

3586

24.43%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6273	1657	31305	20.04%	14	213

 

AMCs sold	3549
Cinemarks sold	645
Regals sold	1315
Harkins sold	764

 

Tuesday:

Total

1189

1428

Wednesday:

Total

1202

1271

Overall:

Grand Total

8664

1657

34004

 

0.374x NWH final (18.70M)

1.95x Eternals final (18.53M)

2.95x NTTD final (18.38M)

2.15x Shang-Chi final (18.92M)

1.36x Black Widow final (17.95M)

 

The comps have all come down to a pretty tight range in Denver and Megaplex, excluding Eternals for Megaplex which underperformed. Like I've been saying, Drafthouse is gonna overperform so I'll mostly ignore that. The Eternals Drafthouse comp might end up working out(before adjustments) because it also overperformed. There are a couple factors to take into account that works in Batman's favor, like ATP and preview start time. NWH is the only other comp that started at 3PM, and it was obviously a different beast. So I expect Batman to have slightly better walkups, relatively speaking, than everything else. And then there's the AMC price increase. It's hard to say how much I should adjust up for those factors, but I think every comp would be at least 19M in Denver and 17M in Megaplex. Megaplex also may be slightly underperforming because it didn't have Wednesday previews and while some would have spilled over to Thursday, it's also possible some opted to go to different theaters. 

 

TL;DR: After some adjustments that may or may not be necessary because of random variation, I'll go with 19.5M for overall previews

[Old Spice]

Preview Night Salt Lake update as of 3:00 PM, Sugarhouse Cinemark.

 

421/888 tix sold. 47.4%

 

I think the demand was there for more sales, but there are very few decent seats left in prime time; everything is either before or after. (The 3:00 PM show was a little less than 50%, and the 3:30 show is only 30% sold. 5:00-10:00 PM is packed however.)

 

The Eternals comp finished at $20.3, so I'll take that with the fan screenings and say a preview night of $23-24.

 

Will report back later tonight with the final totals.

 

[excel1]

41 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Sub-20m true Thursday incoming?

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

41 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Don't be.  Marvel, even a film like Eternals, has very strong walkups.  Batsy would need to do over TWICE that amount of walkups if it wanted to keep pace.

I'm a little surprised by the weak start given that BW's walk-ups were just ok and it's barely outpacing that. Looking at your data and Inception's, sub 20m full previews doesn't seem completely out of the question.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Friday(241 showings): 6574(+1327)/59000 in 15 theaters

0.301x NWH's T-2 (21.65M)

2.24x Eternals' T-2 (47.80M)

1.60x NTTD T-2 (27.33M)

1.38x Black Widow T-2 (36.29M)

 

Saturday(247 showings): 3801(+828)/61179 in 15 theaters

0.245x NWH's T-3 (18.11M)

2.29x Eternals' T-3 (55.23M)

1.55x NTTD T-3 (28.13M)

 

Sunday(205 showings): 906(+183)/50417 in 15 theaters

0.224x NWH's T-4 (14.38M)

2.13x Eternals' T-4 (34.78M)

1.80x NTTD T-4 (26.19M)

The Batman Megaplex

 

Friday(248 showings): 8610(+2036)/60887 in 15 theaters

0.319x NWH's T-1 (22.955M)

1.60x NTTD T-1 (27.33M)

1.37x Black Widow T-1 (36.03M)

 

Saturday(248 showings): 5140(+1339)/61337 in 15 theaters

0.274x NWH's T-2 (20.25M)

1.68x NTTD T-2 (30.49M)

 

Sunday(209 showings): 1301(+395)/51430 in 15 theaters

0.273x NWH's T-3 (17.52M)

2.07x NTTD T-3 (30.12M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/2/2022 at 3:58 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Friday(519 showings): 21852(+3191)/63150 ATP: $14.80

0.684x NWH's T-2 (49.20M)

2.51x Eternals T-2 (53.56M)

 

Saturday(526 showings): 22977(+3404)/65004 ATP: $14.21

0.699x NWH's T-3 (51.66M)

2.78x Eternals T-3 (67.05M)

 

Sunday(492 showings): 12113(+1840)/60280 ATP: $14.14

0.612x NWH's T-4 (39.28M)

2.46x Eternals T-4 (40.17M)

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Friday(520 showings): 25215(+3363)/63268 ATP: $14.69

0.682x NWH's T-1 (49.06M)

2.42x Eternals T-1 (51.64M)

 

Saturday(528 showings): 26843(+3866)/65202 ATP: $14.14

0.717x NWH's T-2 (52.99M)

2.71x Eternals T-2 (65.37M)

 

Sunday(492 showings): 14867(+2754)/60376 ATP: $14.06

0.629x NWH's T-3 (40.37M)

2.62x Eternals T-3 (42.78M)

Edited March 3, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Shawn Robbins]

In case if interested, The Batman's showtime sample from 3,607 domestic theaters is 46.56 shows per location for the date range of Thursday through Sunday (data as of earlier this afternoon).

 

Comps:
No Way Home (57.19)

Eternals (34.31)

Venom 2 (41.93)

Joker (41.01)

Rise of Skywalker (52.12)

 

Total universe of showtimes is ahead of all comps except NWH and TROS (notable for Joker and TROS, I guess, since those samples were over 3,900 theaters in the averages above -- all others had a similar # of tracked theaters as The Batman).

 

FWIW, we baked in a $15.5M - $16M true Thursday for the OW forecast pinpoint. Range of $13M - $18Mish). Banking on word of mouth to carry it through the weekend, ala Joker and Logan. (I saw the film, though, before final forecasts, so trying to stay as objective as possible.)

 

Enjoy Batman weekend, everyone. I need a break.

[charlie Jatinder]

Waiting for MTC data but nothing surprising so far. Going $19-21M previews and $100-130M OW.

[Eric is Quiet]

18 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	217	9859	39778	24.79%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,127

 

Comp

1.917x of Black Widow T-1 (25.31M)

3.044x of Shang-Chi T-1 (26.79M)

3.309x of Venom 2 T-1 (38.39M)

2.699x of Eternals T-1 (25.64M)

0.376x of Spider-Man: NWH T-1 (18.81M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.511x of Star Wars: TROS T-1 (20.45M)

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	217	12459	39778	31.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2,600

 

Comp

1.641x of Black Widow (21.66M)

2.622x of Shang-Chi (23.08M)

2.379x of Venom 2 (27.59M)

2.362x of Eternals (22.44M)

0.405x of Spider-Man: NWH (20.27M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.601x of Star Wars: TROS (24.04M)

 

So this averages out to about...23.2M...yeah, let's go with that.

[BruiseCruise]

120m would be an excellent OW for a reboot but some people have built their expectations so high that it would be a disappointment 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:35pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	1	327	28376	38854	10478	26.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

939

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [12:00-12:55]	137.37		891	78354		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9196	113.94%		18.48m
SC [12:00-12:55]	218.02		634	4806		0/192	20664/25450	18.88%		5847	179.20%		19.19m
LTBC [12:00-12:50]	165.19		1216	6343		0/247	27313/33656	18.85%		7712	135.87%		19.16m
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	339.20		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	280.39%		21.03m
Dune [12:00-12:20]	438.23		284	2391		0/109	12402/14793	16.16%		2915	359.45%		22.35m
ET [12:00-12:30]	197.18		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		6409	163.49%		18.73m
NWH [11:30-12:40]	39.65		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	37.18%		19.83m

COMP NOTE: The comp for Black Widow has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Batman's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Tuesday Sales:        743/815     [91.17% sold]  [FINAL]

Wednesday Sales: 1363/1515  [89.97% sold]   [FINAL]

Thursday Sales:   8372/36524  [22.92% sold]   [+939 tickets]

---

Regal:  2768/11847  [23.36% sold] [+285 tickets]

Matinee: 661/4889   [13.52% | 6.31% of all tickets sold]

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:00pm - 4:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	1	328	27144	38901	11757	30.22%

 

Total Showings Reaching Cap Since Mid-Day	1
Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	47
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1279

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [4:20-5:20]	127.85		1361	7835		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		9196	127.85%		17.67m
TSS [5:40-6:10]	499.87		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		2352	499.87%		20.49m
SC [4:40-5:30]	201.08		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		5847	201.08%		17.69m
LTBC [3:50-4:35]	152.45		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		7712	152.45%		17.68m
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	314.61		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	314.61%		19.51m
Dune [5:10-5:30]	403.33		524	2915		0/109	11878/14793	19.71%		2915	403.33%		20.57m
ET [4:50-5:20]	183.45		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	183.45%		17.43m
NWH [3:00-4:30]	41.72		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	41.72%		20.86m

COMP NOTE: The comp for Black Widow has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Batman's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Tuesday Sales:        743/815     [91.17% sold]  [FINAL]

Wednesday Sales: 1363/1515  [89.97% sold]   [FINAL]

Thursday Sales:   9651/36571  [26.23% sold]   [+1279 tickets]

---

Regal:  3107/11847  [26.23% sold] [+339 tickets]

Matinee: 859/4889   [17.57% | 7.31% of all tickets sold]

 

====

Gonna say right up front, I don't love my methodology quite yet for 3pm previews that have 300+ showtimes locally (much more the latter which is a problem rather than the former). I think I know how to make it better and more in line with my 4pm previews at the very least.  But I'm sure the 6pm preview start times are taking something of a hit. 

 

But as I've said all along, I also just think Sacto is either underperforming or over-performs for Marvel films.  FWIW, the only other 3pm start I have (No Way Home),  Dune, and The Suicide Squad (which I just added) are more or less in broad agreement with each other.  So let's average those three and say 20.6m +/- .4m in previews.  Hopefully Sacto is just underperforming + I need to work on my methodology a bit for 3pm/300+ showtimes.

 

But if it isn't, don't be shocked if sub-20m full previews does indeed happen.  Don't think it would with the insane number of PLF previews. but...

Edited March 4, 2022 by Porthos

[cax16]

1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

120m would be an excellent OW for a reboot but some people have built their expectations so high that it would be a disappointment 

You can look back at my posts from a long time ago and I was very happy with 100-140 opening weekend and 600 WW for this being a reboot. But you’re right many peoples expectations were very high and probably not very realistic. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:00pm - 4:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	1	328	27144	38901	11757	30.22%

 

Total Showings Reaching Cap Since Mid-Day	1
Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	47
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1279

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW [4:20-5:20]	127.85		1361	7835		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		9196	127.85%		17.67m
TSS [4:20-5:20]	499.87		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		2352	499.87%		20.49m
SC [4:40-5:30]	201.08		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		5847	201.08%		17.69m
LTBC [3:50-4:35]	152.45		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		7712	152.45%		17.68m
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	314.61		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	314.61%		19.51m
Dune [5:10-5:30]	403.33		524	2915		0/109	11878/14793	19.71%		2915	403.33%		20.57m
ET [4:50-5:20]	183.45		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	183.45%		17.43m
NWH [3:00-4:30]	41.72		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	41.72%		20.86m

COMP NOTE: The comp for Black Widow has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Batman's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Tuesday Sales:        743/815     [91.17% sold]  [FINAL]

Wednesday Sales: 1363/1515  [89.97% sold]   [FINAL]

Thursday Sales:   9651/36571  [26.23% sold]   [+1279 tickets]

---

Regal:  3107/11847  [26.23% sold] [+339 tickets]

Matinee: 859/4889   [17.57% | 7.31% of all tickets sold]

 

====

Gonna say right up front, I don't love my methodology quite yet for 3pm previews that have 300+ showtimes locally (much more the latter which is a problem rather than the former). I think I know how to make it better and more in line with my 4pm previews at the very least.  But I'm sure the 6pm preview start times are taking something of a hit. 

 

But as I've said all along, I also just think Sacto is either underperforming or over-performs for Marvel films.  FWIW, the only other 3pm start I have (No Way Home),  Dune, and The Suicide Squad (which I just added) are more or less in broad agreement with each other.  So let's average those three and say 20.6m +/- .4m in previews.  Hopefully Sacto is just underperforming + I need to work on my methodology a bit for 3pm/300+ showtimes.

 

But if it isn't, don't be shocked if sub-20m full previews does indeed happen.  Don't think it would with the insane number of PLF previews. but...

The TSS comp finally coming to use. If its not much trouble, can you do an adjusted Captain Marvel and Joker comp.

 

If its not a trouble. If it is, ignore it 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

I'm a little surprised by the weak start given that BW's walk-ups were just ok and it's barely outpacing that. Looking at your data and Inception's, sub 20m full previews doesn't seem completely out of the question.

 

It did not get better, as you can see.

 

The one major note I have to point out up front is when I took my sample.  4:20-5:20 vs 3:00-4:20 isn't trivial.  Not 3m difference trivial, no.  But still not trivial.

 

On the other hand, there was a major round of ticket price hikes right around or right after Eternals.  So No Way Home might still be pointing the way, especially as that's a 3pm'er as well.

 

But, yeah.  Walkups weren't fantastic locally no matter how I try to crouch it.  

 

---

 

One thing that does strike me is the difference between Denver and Sacto and with Philly.  I did note locally that The Batman wasn't playing as well in the exurbs/bedroom communities locally.  Could just be that it is doing really well in the cities and not quite as well the further one gets out from the major parts of the cities.

 

Other than that?  I gots nothing.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It did not get better, as you can see.

 

The one major note I have to point out up front is when I took my sample.  4:20-5:20 vs 3:00-4:20 isn't trivial.  Not 3m difference trivial, no.  But still not trivial.

 

On the other hand, there was a major round of ticket price hikes right around or right after Eternals.  So No Way Home might still be pointing the way, especially as that's a 3pm'er as well.

 

But, yeah.  Walkups weren't fantastic locally no matter how I try to crouch it.  

 

---

 

One thing that does strike me is the difference between Denver and Sacto and with Philly.  I did note locally that The Batman wasn't playing as well in the exurbs/bedroom communities locally.  Could just be that it is doing really well in the cities and not quite as well the further one gets out from the major parts of the cities.

 

Other than that?  I gots nothing.

Even Denver and Philly the comps just nosedived on the final day. Possibly Batman is just a very PS heavy franchise even when the buzz is good.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Ghost Mountain]

7 hours ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

For what is worth, 5m in pre-previews  (this is getting ridiculous) is a lot of tickets sold and demand burnt. Plus, I believe that this will skew older than your typical cbm on top of having better walk ups. So I am gonna say 145-150M.

It will have a lot less families than a typical cbm though. I’m pretty sure presales are highest among older teens to young millennials so it could actually be quite presale heavy.

[excel1]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It did not get better, as you can see.

 

The one major note I have to point out up front is when I took my sample.  4:20-5:20 vs 3:00-4:20 isn't trivial.  Not 3m difference trivial, no.  But still not trivial.

 

On the other hand, there was a major round of ticket price hikes right around or right after Eternals.  So No Way Home might still be pointing the way, especially as that's a 3pm'er as well.

 

But, yeah.  Walkups weren't fantastic locally no matter how I try to crouch it.  

 

---

 

One thing that does strike me is the difference between Denver and Sacto and with Philly.  I did note locally that The Batman wasn't playing as well in the exurbs/bedroom communities locally.  Could just be that it is doing really well in the cities and not quite as well the further one gets out from the major parts of the cities.

 

Other than that?  I gots nothing.

 

Batman will perform like a democrat. huge in cities, questionable in urban areas.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The TSS comp finally coming to use. If its not much trouble, can you do an adjusted Captain Marvel and Joker comp.

 

If its not a trouble. If it is, ignore it 

 

Captain Marvel:   1.0788x = 22.33m

Joker:                   2.0689x = 27.52m

 

But, don't forget that CM over-performed here and Joker underperformed.  Plus the difference in theater environment (staffing, perm closed locations, etc), so I would... not count on the Joker comp, personally.  No matter how much it might make excel happy   

 

And if Captain Marvel is at all close, it's more multiple factors cancelling each other out than anything else (Bats underperforming/theater environment/CM over-performing).